With corn maintaining its dominance and soybeans showing promise, this week is setting up as prime opportunity to book higher prices and cover against a downshift in grain markets.
In this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, market analysts Bruce Blythe and Ben Potter, both senior editors at Farm Futures, unpack the March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings and Quarterly reports and their implications.
The obvious headline is that corn remains the favorite crop for U.S. farmers. The actionable insights delve into the market’s response to the report and expectations for demand.
Corn is still king
Corn came in nearly one million acres above trade estimates. USDA projects 95.3 million acres of plantings in 2026, which would mark the fourth-highest corn planting since World War II.
“Corn is still king,” Blythe says. “Farmers see greater profit potential this year versus soybeans and other crops, despite high fertilizer costs and global uncertainties like turmoil in the Middle East.” Blythe sees demand for biofuels and record exports driving the trend.
USDA, however, estimated soybean acres lower than the trade expects. USDA came in at 84.7 million acres, or about 800,000 acres below the trade expectation of 85.5 million acres.
“Prices jumped double digits immediately after the report,” Potter notes. “Soybeans have a lot going for them, including record crush volumes and biofuel mandates. If China returns to the table with more robust trade, the upside potential is significant.”
Meanwhile, wheat plantings hit record lows, with the USDA reporting 43.8 million acres — the lowest since 1919.
“Prices just aren’t exciting growers,” Blythe explained. “Futures above $6 per bushel aren’t enough to turn heads.”
USDA, of course, never has the final say on planting. Mother Nature laughs last.
“Spring weather will be a key driver over the next couple of months,” Potter says. Blythe agrees, cautioning farmers to prepare for potential drought scares or other disruptions.
As planting season begins, the analysts say farmers should stay vigilant and balance opportunities with risks in a volatile market.
To hear more on ways farmers can respond to this week’s market opportunities, watch Ag Marketing IQ in Depth.