Commodities are notorious for breathtaking rallies — and calamitous crashes. So, if you’re ready to rumble with soybeans and maybe even corn, be prepared to get thrown out of the ring. And don’t be surprised if Bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrencies tag in with a piledriver to add to the pain.
Precious metals rose to the top of this volatility podium, given lift from buyers who hopped on the momentum bandwagon. One of those times when buying causes more buying — until it doesn’t. Part of silver’s boost came from hopes for stronger industrial usage, but gold’s rally was tied hand and foot to a weaker dollar. Over the past four decades the greenback and gold have had no statistical connection. More recently, however, movements in the dollar accounted for more than half the variance seen in gold.
Gold found favor as a hedge against a weaker dollar, as investors, particularly well-heeled family offices, looked for wealth safe havens. Other commodities benefited from me-too buying triggered by supply chain disruptions due to war worries, from Russia and Ukraine to Iran, and uncertainty over supplies, from China to South America.
Silver regained popularity not seen since the heyday of the Hunt bothers’ attempt to corner that market in 1980. But gold really glittered, doubling in value and sparking curiosity in other commodities, though corn and soybeans were mostly left in the gold dust.
February highs are rare
Nearby corn rallied to a one-month high at $4.36, just inside the top third of the trading band projected by my forecasting model at $4.29 to $4.62. Soybeans gained 5% to hit $11.37¾, closing in on the model’s top third range of $11.46 to $12.32, which hints the market could have a little left in the tank.
Moreover, highs don’t normally come in February — except when occasionally they do. As recently as 2025 December new crop corn peaked on Feb. 20, for example. But just two of the past 50 years saw February tops by the July corn contract, with none meeting that metric for July soybeans.
To be sure, waiting has its own risk. Just ask those who jumped into the crypto pool without a life preserver. Bitcoin topped $126,000 a token in October 2025, then crashed and fought to hold $60,000 — a precipitous plunge of more than 50%.
Extreme volatility in financial markets could spill over to corn and soybeans at any time. Otherwise, weather in South America and China’s appetite for imports could spell the difference in 2026.
Betting on China?
Conditions in Argentina appear below normal, while fields in Brazil are slightly better than average, but potential yields appear to be stabilizing. So, getting prices to move off South American weather may be difficult without extreme changes from forecasts or production estimates.
On the demand side, traders are hoping for a big boost in soybean deals when President Trump visits China, believing another 300 million bushels could be added to Beijing’s previously announced target of 440 million. But some players could be waiting in the weeds to “buy the rumor, sell the fact,” another reason to beware of the Bitcoin trade.
July corn on average leaks lower in February through early March as the debate over new crop acreage heats up to take over the market’s focus. Old crop soybeans can find footing into the first week or two of February, before they too, on average, confirm a bottom and try to firm into March.
Over the past 50 years, July corn peaked in February only twice (2007, 2017), while old crop July soybeans never peaked in the second month of the year. History isn’t a perfect gauge, but the law of averages is still better than the law of the jungle.