Grain and oilseed markets are starting to irritate me. Driverless cars and cabs are the new frontier, but this is a driverless market. Where is the volatility?
Volatility in grain prices can be measured in many fancy ways. Here is my simple measure of “volatile.” I consider prices volatile when the difference between the highest and lowest closing futures price is greater than 10% during a month.
For example, $4-per-bushel corn futures with a monthly maximum-minimum price difference (up or down) of 40 cents per bushel or more is a volatile month. One-month price moves of 10% or more are not common, but they aren’t rare either.
Let’s apply my simple definition to last year. I looked at a 35-year history of new-crop December corn futures and November soybean futures contracts. In nearly every year, the new-crop futures had at least one “volatile” month in the delivery year — prices surged or dropped by 10% or more.
But not last year for December ’25 corn and November ’25 soybean contracts. Same thing for the November ’24 soybean contract, making 2025 the second consecutive year that a contract wasn’t “volatile.” That’s the first time in 36 years. My conclusion: These are dull and sleepy markets.
Patterns flipped
Last year was difficult in other ways, too. Not only did we lack volatility, but also seasonal price patterns were upside down. In February 2025, the new-crop corn and soybean markets enjoyed a modest price rally. Late in that month, I told 900 of my best friends at a
Commodity Classic session that markets do not make highs in February.
I was channeling the late great “Soy Roy” Smith, a Nebraska farmer who talked about the “John Deere low” in February prices, driven by producers selling grain to raise cash for equipment payments.
What was my recommendation to this crowd of eager listeners? Don’t price new crop now because we will get a better opportunity later in the spring or summer. How wrong was my advice?
Consider the following trivia question: The base crop insurance price is established with a simple average of December corn futures prices in February. In 2001-25, how often did the highest closing price for December corn in the March-to-September period not exceed the February base crop insurance price?
The answer is once: 2025. Hindsight says that February was the high. Ouch.
Price trends
I often tell producers to forget last year when pricing grain, but this year I find it hard to follow my own advice.
As of mid-February, November ’26 soybean prices were a nudge above $11 per bushel, or 25 cents better than our best pricing opportunity from a year ago. At $4.60 per bushel, December ’26 corn was not quite to year-ago levels, but I surely don’t need to remind you that both the December ’25 and December ’24 contracts established lows below $4 per bushel.
I still believe that we could see even better new-crop pricing opportunities in the spring or summer. But make some early sales because, as we learned a year ago, markets can make highs in February.