The April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from USDA, out Thursday morning, generated additional headwinds for wheat prices after the agency noted that ending stocks are at the highest volume since 2019-20. Corn prices were also slightly lower immediately following today’s report amid higher global production potential. Soybean prices held firm, in contrast, on steady ending stocks and improved crush volume.
Corn and soybean futures extended declines following the release of USDA’s numbers, while soybeans held onto modest gains. Near midday, July corn was down 3.75 cents at $4.5450 per bushel, while July soybeans were up 2.5 cents at $11.8050. July SRW wheat fell 9.25 cents to $5.82 after touching a five-week low.
“Today's WASDE report came and went and it's almost as if it never happened!” said Jeremy McCann with Farmer’s Keeper in a note to clients. “It's not often that the April WASDE really shakes things up and that trend continued today. I was expecting to see an increase in corn exports as export demand continues at a record-breaking pace, however that likely would have been offset by a decrease in feed and residual usage anyway. There's still plenty of time for those adjustments to be made. The corn and wheat world ending stocks being revised higher adds to an already burdensome picture for those markets.”
Corn
Corn ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year held steady at 2.127 billion bushels. Analysts were expecting to see a fractional increase after offering an average trade guess of 2.128 billion bushels ahead of today’s report. Disappearance through the first six months of this marketing year totaled 9.6 billion bushels, which was 1.0 billion higher compared to year-ago trends. USDA also increased the season-average farm price by 5 cents to $4.15 per bushel, citing “reported prices to date.”
USDA made no changes to its assessment of South American production. That leaves Brazilian production at 5.197 billion bushels and Argentine production at 2.047 billion bushels. Analysts were expecting to see modest increases for both crops.
Globally, ending stocks increased from 292.75 million metric tons in March up to 294.81 MMT. That was also noticeably higher than the average trade guess of 293.07 MMT.
Soybeans
USDA’s April outlook for soybeans included higher crush, lower exports and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean crush improved by 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion. That was completely offset by a 35-million-bushel reduction in exports to 1.54 billion, which USDA attributed to higher South American shipments. All told, ending stocks held steady at 350 million bushels. USDA also upped its season-average farm price by a dime to $10.30 per bushel.
USDA left its estimates for South American production unchanged, with Brazilian production still at 6.614 billion bushels and Argentine production at 1.764 billion bushels. Analysts were expecting to see fractional gains for Argentina and fractional cuts for Brazil.
Globally, ending stocks eased from 125.31 million metric tons in March to 124.79 MMT. That was in contrast to analyst expectations, with the average trade guess at 125.51 MMT.
Wheat
USDA made no changes to its 2025-26 wheat export estimates, staying at 900 million, although the agency did note some offsetting by-class revisions. Ending stocks increased to 938 million bushels. That’s up 10% year-over-year and is the highest volume since 2019-20. The agency did raise its season-average farm price by a nickel to $5.00 per bushel, however.
World ending stocks for wheat increased from 276.96 million metric tons in March up to 283.12 MMT. That was also above the average trade guess of 277.07 MMT. India, Ukraine, the European Union, Australia and Bangladesh drove most of that increase.
