Though the April USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report delivered few surprises across the corn and soybean balance sheets, no news is ever truly no news in agricultural markets.
With planting season accelerating, a deteriorating hard red winter wheat crop across the southern Plains, and South American supply pressure bearing down on U.S. bean exports, here are a few tips for farmers and market participants to consider.
Was the 2025 corn crop overstated?
The corn balance sheet came and went with zero changes on old crop, leaving ending stocks untouched at 2.127 billion bushels and a stocks-to-use ratio of roughly 12.9%. The headline numbers look comfortable, but the debate beneath the surface is far from settled.
The question that will persist until the final September Stocks report is whether last year's crop was overstated. Feed and residual demand remains a genuine point of contention among analysts. Animal numbers, year-over-year carcass weights, and the substitution dynamic between corn and soybean meal in livestock rations all factor into a complex picture that won't resolve itself quietly.
Corn demand is strong
What is not ambiguous is demand. Export pace remains exceptionally strong, and this week's ethanol production print was the largest on record for this time of year. The defining theme of the 2024-25 corn marketing year continues: record crop paired with record demand. China's corn import estimate held unchanged at 8 million metric tons, offering no new signal either way.
As planting accelerates and farmers heat to the field, the brief rally to $4.95 to $4.98 basis May futures is not far back in the rearview mirror.
Here’s the tip: Ensure offers are placed and downside protection is set before field operations fully consume your attention.
Soybeans offer profitability
The old crop soybean balance sheet also held carryout steady at 350 million bushels, with exports trimmed 35 million bushels and crush increased by an equal amount. A $3-plus cash crush margin reflects genuine profitability for the processing sector and validates the infrastructure buildout underway across the Corn Belt. Domestic demand is doing its job.
Exports challenge soybeans
The competitive export backdrop, however, is formidable. The combined exportable surplus from Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay is estimated to be approximately 520 million bushels larger than a year ago. Absent a policy-driven trade event such as a goodwill purchase agreement tied to a potential U.S.-China summit, the economic incentive for global buyers clearly favors South American origin through at least mid-summer.
Here’s the tip: The window for meaningful U.S. export competition likely does not reopen until fall.
Watch India’s wheat stocks
World wheat ending stocks increased 6 million metric tons in the April WASDE, with 4.8 million metric tons coming from upward revisions to Indian carryover stocks. USDA reviewed the first 11 months of India's crop year and found domestic consumption below earlier projections.
Here’s the tip: India is not typically a major export player, but well-stocked Indian inventories bear watching as we move into the 2025-26 marketing year.
Weather hampers U.S. wheat
The more pressing story is in the field. Hard red winter wheat crop conditions stand at just 35% good to excellent nationally, down from 48% a year ago. Western Nebraska is experiencing one of its driest stretches in 134 years of recorded data. Northwest Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle, and parts of Texas are under significant stress. Some near-term precipitation is in the forecast for eastern Kansas and Oklahoma, which offers modest encouragement, but the western tier remains largely outside that pattern. We are approaching a point of no return for this crop. Rain in mid-April can still be redemptive. By May, the window narrows considerably.
Soft red winter conditions are considerably better, though acreage is down modestly from last year. The critical period for that class arrives in May and June.
The forward view
Two developing themes deserve attention beyond the current crop year.
- El Niño. A strengthening pattern historically correlates with drought in eastern Australia, which begins wheat planting in May. If El Niño intensifies, Australian production prospects could come under pressure later this year.
- Brazil's safrinha corn crop has approximately 45 days of critical precipitation ahead. The safrinha has not been made yet, and weather between now and late May could still reshape the South American corn supply picture meaningfully.
The May 12 USDA Crop Production report will deliver the first new crop balance sheet estimates and initial yield projections. That is when the 2025-26 marketing year begins to take shape.
Here’s the tip: Until then, get positioned, have your offers in place, and have a safe planting season.
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