Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!
Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Big news from the Farm Progress Show: Ag broadcasting legend Max Armstrong is putting his restored 1953 International Harvester Super M tractor up for sale. “I don’t have room for it in my shed in North Carolina,” Armstrong told our Andy Castillo. “It’s time to let it go.”
Corn export sales expected to stay firm
December corn rose 0.25 cent to $4.0625 per bushel late in overnight trading after shedding 3.5 cents Wednesday to $4.06, the contract’s second straight daily decline and its lowest settlement since August 20.
The corn market’s recent rally stalled this week, with the December contract on Wednesday closing below the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), $4.0750, for the first time since August 14. Overnight, the market tested support at the 20-day SMA ($4.0525). While December futures seem safely above the $3.92 contract low for now, the market could see further erosion ahead of the three-day holiday weekend amid a lack of bullish news.
Upside levels to watch include this week’s December intraday day high at $4.1650 and the 50-day SMA at $4.1550.
Corn futures have undergone a mild corrective pullback following the rally of the past two weeks amid a bearish longer-term supply outlook with a likely record harvest in the pipeline. Prices remain underpinned by prospects USDA will revise its record production and yield estimates lower in coming months, though upside probably will be limited until actual harvest results are seen.
Largely benign Midwest weather and stronger than expected weekly crop condition ratings are also weighing on prices, as well as welcome cooler temperatures settling in across the region this week.
USDA is expected to report another strong week of corn export sales. Analysts expect net new-crop sales at 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) to 2.6 MMT (47.2 million to 102.4 million bushels). A week ago, USDA reported net 2025-26 sales at 112.6 million bushels, up 40% from the previous week and more than double the total from the same week in 2024.
Sales commitments so far for 2025-26 totaled 656.9 million bushels, or about 23% of USDA’s full-year export estimate, a record 2.875 billion bushels.
Early Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.07 million barrels a day during the week ended August 22, down 0.2% from the previous week and a three-month low.
Soybean traders watching export sales
November soybeans were unchanged at $10.4750 late overnight after dropping 2 cents Wednesday to $10.4750, down from a two-month intraday high of $20.6275 posted August 22.
Soybeans extended a sideways-softer pattern overnight with November futures extending a pullback from the two-month high at $10.6275 hit at the end of last week. Prices may erode further ahead of the three-day weekend as traders wait for early harvest results, while export concerns continue to burden prices.
November futures briefly pushed under the 10-day SMA ($10.46) overnight, and further weakness could lead to a test of this week’s low at $10.4175.
Favorable Midwest weather and relatively solid crop conditions are limiting buying interest, along with ongoing concern over a lack of Chinese business for new-crop soybean exports. Traders will study today’s weekly USDA sales data for any signs of so-far-absent Chinese buying for new-crop delivery.
Net sales for 2025-26 delivery are expected to range from 450,000 metric tons (MT) to 1 MMT (16.5 million to 36.7 million bushels). A week ago, USDA said net soybean sales for 2025-26 delivery totaled 42 million bushels during the week ended August 14, up 0.9% from the previous week and a marketing-year high. However, China was not listed as a buyer.
For 2024-25 to date, U.S. soybean export sales (including accumulated exports) totaled 1.876 billion bushels, up 11.5% from the same period in 2023-24 and above USDA’s full-year estimate of 1.875 billion bushels.
Brazil, long been the 800-pound gorilla competing with American farmers for global grain trade, may be poised to bulk up another couple hundred pounds. “Brazil continues to expand area and production” for corn and soybeans, farmer and advisor Matthew Kruse said at the Farm Progress Show’s opening day Tuesday.
Wheat near contract lows
December SRW wheat futures fell 1.75 cents to $5.2250 late overnight after earlier dropping to $5.2125, the contract’s lowest intraday price since August 20.
December HRW futures fell 1.75 cents to $5.2250 after slipping Wednesday to $5.46, a lifetime-low close for the contract. December spring wheat fell 0.5 cent to $5.7625 after sinking Wednesday to a lifetime-low close.
Wheat futures have showed signs of bottoming with last week’s contract lows but SRW futures eroded overnight, slipping under the 10-day SMA ($5.27). December SRW futures are still above a contract low at $5.1725 a week ago.
Wheat continues to slump near five-year lows reached earlier this month as ample global supplies overshadows a strong start to the marketing year for U.S. exports.
USDA is expected to report net weekly U.S. wheat sales of 400,000 MT to 700,000 MT (14.7 million to 25.7 million bushels).
A week ago, USDA reported net weekly U.S. wheat sales at 19.1 million bushels, down 28% from the previous week and down 25% from the average for the previous four weeks. For 2025-26 to date, sales (including accumulated exports) totaled 423.4 million bushels, up 23% from the same period in 2024-25 and 48% of USDA’s full-year estimate for 875 million bushels.
Rains possible for Dakotas, Nebraska
Light to moderate rains are expected for the Dakotas, Nebraska and western Iowa the rest of the 72-hour cumulative precipitation map. Most of the central and eastern Corn Belt looks mostly dry. Temperatures should remain unthreatening the rest of the week, with highs in the 70s to low 80s Fahrenheit across the Midwest.
The first week of the new month is expected to bring below-normal temperatures across the central U.S., based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers September 2-6. Precipitation prospects are seen above normal for most of the Corn Belt.
Stock index futures mixed overnight
Stock index futures were mixed overnight in the wake of earnings results from technology giant Nvidia and ahead of the Friday release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index were little changed and Nasdaq-100 futures were down about 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index fell almost 0.3%.
October WTI crude oil futures fell 3 cents to $64.12 per barrel. Gold futures rose 0.4% to about $3,435 per ounce.