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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Farmers from Kansas to Illinois in recent weeks have reported seeing corn plants with tassels still tightly wrapped in whorl leaves, raising concerns whether plants will pollinate properly. Crop experts are uncertain what’s causing the unusual phenomenon and whether it may lead to lost bushels, Midwest Crops Editor Tom Bechman reports.

Corn pressured by favorable Midwest weather

December corn futures rose 0.5 cent to $4.1150 per bushel late in overnight trading after dropping 3 cents Tuesday to $4.11, the contract’s third consecutive daily decline and a lifetime-low close. September futures were unchanged at $3.8925.

Corn market technicals remain soft with December futures hovering in the lower half of the past month’s trading range below key near-term chart points including the 10- and 20-day simple moving averages (SMAs), currently $4.1825 and $4.1950, respectively. Bears are within striking distance of the $4.0750 December contract low posted July 14 as well as the psychologically important $4 level. Longer-term downside levels to watch include $3.85, a four-year low reached last summer.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 5 cents Tuesday to $3.7225, near a nine-month low.

Midwest weather remains bearish with more generous rainfall expected for much of the Midwest during the second half of this week, along with a brief cool-down following the recent heat wave. August outlooks have turned warmer but also hold prospects for above-normal precipitation.

Favorable weather and historically high crop ratings have traders pricing in expectations for a record U.S. corn yield above USDA’s current projection for an average of 181 bushels per acre. Some analysts speculate the yield could reach 185 bpa, which would produce a crop of nearly 16.1 billion bushels, based on USDA acreage estimates.

Early this week, USDA rated 73% of the crop either “good” or “excellent” as of Sunday, down from 74% a week earlier but up from 68% on the same date last year. Among top-producing states, Iowa’s crop improved to 87% good-to-excellent from 86% a week earlier.

Later this morning, the Energy Information Administration will report weekly U.S. ethanol production and stockpiles. The nation’s ethanol distillers were running at or near record levels in June as cheap corn fueled strong margins, though production eased in July.

A week ago, EIA said U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.078 million barrels a day during the week ended July 18, down 0.8% from the previous week and down 1.6% from the same week a year earlier.

So much for the “Dome of Doom.” While scorching Midwest temperatures over the past week stirred echoes of drought rallies past, grain traders barely batted an eye and corn and soybean prices continue to grind lower. Financial markets also gave off an eerie sense of calm. But the opening days of August could test these still waters, Bryce Knorr says in an Ag Marketing IQ post.

Soybean futures nearing test of $10

November soybeans fell 1.75 cents to $10.08 late overnight after falling 2 cents Tuesday to $10.0950, the contract’s third straight daily drop and its lowest close since July 15. September futures fell 1.75 cents to $9.8775.

The soybean market’s near-term technical posture remains bearish with November futures sinking to the lower end of this month’s range and trading below the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($10.21 and $10.20, respectively) for the third day in a row. Further weakness may lead to a test of the $10.00 level and the July low at $9.9825. Below those levels, there’s little apparent chart support until the full-year low of $9.7125, posted in April.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell about 8 cents Tuesday to $9.4725, the lowest since early April.

September soymeal rose 90 cents to $267.30 per ton after dropping Tuesday to a lifetime-low close for the contract. September soyoil fell 52 points to 56.68 cents per pound after earlier touching 57.64 cents, near a 22-month high.

Soybean futures remain under pressure from expectations that crop-friendly weather will persist into August during the crop’s critical pod-filling stage. Forecasts for the first half of August call for above-normal temperatures but aren’t considered threatening, with abundant rains during the second half of July fueling improvement in crop ratings.

Early this week, USDA reported its 18-state good-to-excellent rating for soybeans rose to 70% from 68% the previous week. Among states, Iowa’s good-to-excellent rating improved to 82% from 80%. About 41% of the soybean crop was setting pods as of Sunday, up from 26% a week earlier but one percentage point below the five-year average.

China’s appetite for soybeans likely will weaken during the peak U.S. marketing season later this year as record imports earlier in 2025 and tepid demand from animal feed producers boost soymeal inventories, Reuters reported, citing trade sources. China has yet to book U.S. cargoes for the fourth quarter as traders monitor trade talks between the two countries in Sweden.

Elsewhere, Brazil’s Anec estimated the country’s soybean exports will reach 442.8 million bushels in July, slightly below an estimate reported a week ago.

Wheat trading near lowest levels since May

September SRW wheat futures fell 3 cents to $5.2675 late overnight after sinking 8.75 cents Tuesday to $5.2975, the contract’s lowest settlement since May 12. Prices overnight matched Tuesday’s low of $5.26.

Wheat technicals remain weak after SRW futures on Tuesday broke under the past month’s trading range and closed below the 10- and 20-day SMAs ($5.3850 and $5.4350, respectively) for the fifth day in a row. Spillover weakness from corn and soybean markets is also weighing on wheat, which may be heading for a test of the contract low of $5.2125 posted in mid-May.

September HRW futures fell 1 cent to $5.1750 after ending near a two-week low Tuesday. September spring wheat fell 0.5 cent to $5.77 after dropping Tuesday to a contract low at $5.7675. Spring wheat posted lifetime-low closes the past four sessions.

Wheat futures continue to take pressure from bearish supply views as the soon-to-be-completed U.S. winter wheat harvest fills the market pipeline. That’s overshadowed a strong start for U.S. export demand in the new 2025-26 crop year.

USDA said the winter wheat harvest was 80% finished as of Sunday, up from 73% a week earlier and one percentage point below the five-year average for that date. Top-producing states including Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas were at or just under 100% complete.

The U.S. spring wheat crop has struggled, with USDA’s good-to-excellent rating dropping to 49% early this week from 52% a week earlier and also down from the year-ago 74% figure. The crop was 92% headed, three percentage points below the five-year average.

Elsewhere, European Union soft wheat exports totaled an estimated 803,256 metric tons from July 1-27, sharply below the 2.248 million metric tons during the same period in 2024, according to the E.U. Commission.

Wet Corn Belt pattern persists

Abundant rainfall is expected to persist across much of the Midwest over the next few days, with the eastern half of Iowa and the northern halves of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana expected to receive 1 inch to 3 inches today through Saturday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour cumulative precipitation map.

Recent forecasts for the first half of August have turned warmer but retain strong precipitation potential. Temperatures for the central U.S. are expected to return to above-normal levels, according to the latest National Weather Service 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks, which cover August 4-12. Above-normal precipitation is expected for the northern and eastern Corn Belt.

Stock futures firm as market awaits Fed decision

Stock index futures firmed overnight as the market waited for a decision on interest rates from the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee. The committee will conclude a two-day meeting early this afternoon and is widely expected to hold its benchmark funds rate unchanged. Investors also awaited Friday’s monthly jobs report from the Labor Department.

Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures rose 0.2%. The underlying S&P 500 index fell 0.3% Tuesday after posting record closes the previous seven days. The U.S. dollar index rose less than 0.1% after reaching a five-week high Tuesday.

September WTI crude oil futures fell 53 cents to $68.68 per barrel while gold futures were little changed at about $3,326 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: