Farmfutures

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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

U.S. agriculture continues its inexorable consolidation, with a small percentage of farms producing over 80% of output. At the other end of the spectrum are smaller operations with strong ties to local consumers and communities. While some dismiss them as hobby farms, they often serve as entry points for ag startups. In his latest Road Warrior column, David Kohl details a few keys to success for what he prefers to call “lifestyle operations.”

Corn rallies on trade ideas, crude oil

December corn futures rose 4.25 cents to $4.3375 per bushel after earlier touching $4.4025, the contract’s highest intraday price since June 23. The contract has rallied 4.1% from the $4.1650 contract low posted on Tuesday and is up from $4.27 at the end of last week, poised to halt a three-week losing streak.

The corn market displayed strong signs of establishing a near-term bottom and perhaps the start of a summer upswing with Wednesday’s high-volume rally, with funds reported to have bought at least 25,000 futures contracts. December futures pushed above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) around $4.3525 overnight and a strong close today could prompt bulls to target the $4.40 and $4.45 areas, as well as the June intraday high at $4.5050.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose jumped 11.75 cents Wednesday to $4.0350.

Corn futures joined a broad rally across the grain and soy complex Wednesday that was fueled by sharp gains in crude oil, as well as reports the Trump administration secured a trade deal with Vietnam. Speculation also circulated deals may be in the offing with India and China with a 90-day tariff pause scheduled to end July 9.

In Washington, the U.S. House early today advanced Trump’s tax and spending bill, which paves the way for potential passage of the legislation in a vote expected later in the day.

Renewed bullishness over trade and the budget bill temporarily overshadowed a Midwest weather outlook that remains largely bearish, with the week’s extreme heat expected to be followed by a moderation in temperatures and above-normal precipitation next week. Less-threatening weather prospects would be timely with the corn crop starting or nearing pollination.

Early today, USDA will report weekly export sales data. Analysts expect net old-crop corn sales of 400,000 metric tons to 1 million metric tons (15.7 million to 39.4 million bushels). New-crop sales are expected to range between 500,000 MT and 900,000 MT.

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. ethanol production eased 0.5% to 1.076 million barrels per day during the week ended June 27, the third consecutive weekly decline from a record high of 1.12 million barrels per day early last month. Ethanol stocks fell 1.2% to 24.1 million barrels but were still up 2.2% over year-earlier levels.

In commodity markets, fat tails, also known as kurtosis, signal potential for extreme volatility that can blow up the best-laid grain marketing plans. Fortunately, farmers can apply certain tools to protect their profitability in this increasingly high-risk environment, according to Farm Futures Contributing Market Analyst Bryce Knorr. Details in Bryce’s latest Ag Marketing IQ column.

Soybeans lifted by biofuels hopes

November soybeans rose 5.25 cents to $10.5325 late overnight after earlier hitting $10.55, the contract’s highest intraday price since June 23. The new-crop contract is tracking for a fifth consecutive daily advance and has rallied almost 4%, from a two-month intraday low of $10.1325 posted last Friday.

This week’s price strength has vaulted soybean futures back to slightly above the middle of the past two months’ trading range and bolstered confidence the market may have established a near-term bottom with the late-June lows. On Wednesday, November soybeans closed above the 10- and 20-day SMAs (about $10.36 and $10.40, respectively) for the first time in almost two weeks.

Upside targets for the November contract include the $10.60 area and the June intraday high at $10.7425, as well as the year-to-date high at $10.7575.

Barchart’s national front-month cash soybean price surged 23.75 cents Wednesday to $10.1250.

August soymeal rose $2.40 to $279.20 per ton after gaining 1.1% Wednesday and rebounding from an overnight drop to a contract low for the eighth consecutive day. August soyoil fell 20 points to 54.82 cents per pound after surging 1.4% Wednesday for its third straight daily gain and highest close since June 16.

Soyoil has led the soy complex higher this week amid hopes Trump’s budget bill will include sharp increases to federal biofuels mandates and an extension of the so-called 45Z tax credit. That’s overshadowed bearish weather, slumping exports and heavy global supplies.

“The market is counting on strong soyoil demand for biofuel production, now that it is looking increasingly likely that the tax bill containing favorable 45Z funding for the sector will pass Congress and be signed by President Trump,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said in a note Wednesday.

Ahead of today’s report, analysts surveyed by Reuters expected net weekly old-crop soybean sales to range from 300,000 MT to 700,000 MT. Net new-crop sales are expected to range between zero and 300,000 MT.

Elsewhere, Argentina’s Rosario Exchange reported a record 64.5 MMT (2.37 billion bushels) of grain exports during the first six months of calendar 2025, including record June exports of 23.53 MMT, ahead of a planned export tax increase set for July 1.

Wheat market joins rally

September SRW wheat futures fell 0.75 cent to $5.6325 late overnight after earlier touching $5.6875, the contract’s highest intraday price since $5.6950 on June 24. Futures rallied 15 cents Wednesday and are up from $5.4075 at the end of last week.

September HRW futures rose 1 cent to $5.4325 after gaining 11 cents Wednesday to the contract’s highest close in over a week. to $5.3125. September spring wheat rose 1 cent to $6.50 after rallying 20.5 cents Wednesday.

Wheat futures gained support this week from trade deal hopes as well as unexpected deterioration in USDA’s weekly crop ratings. USDA’s 18-state combined good-to-excellent winter wheat rating fell to 48% as of Sunday from 49% a week earlier, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.

Today’s USDA report is expected to show net U.S. wheat sales of 200,000 MT to 600,000 MT for the week ended June 26.

European Commission data earlier this week showed cumulative 2024-25 soft wheat exports at 20.19 MMT through June 29, down from 31.07 MMT last season; corn imports totaled 19.60 MMT, up from 18.97 MMT last year, with soybean imports at 14.27 MMT through most of the year.

Hot holiday weekend ahead for Midwest

Much of the Plains and western Corn Belt will receive rainfall today through the weekend, with North Dakota, northern Minnesota and Wisconsin potentially in line for 0.5 inch to as much as 2 inches, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Most of Nebraska, Iowa and Kansas could receive 0.25 inch to 1 inch of rain.

Extreme heat, with highs topping 90 degrees Fahrenheit, is expected to persist across the Midwest through the weekend before temperatures moderate somewhat early next week and rain prospects increase, based on the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers July 8-12. Temperatures are then seen turning above normal for much of the Midwest in the 8-to-14-day outlook, which covers July 10-16.

Stock futures steady ahead of jobs report

Stock index futures were little changed overnight as investors readied for today’s June employment report, which will influence market expectations for the direction of interest rates Federal Reserve policy. The report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls grew about 110,000 last month, down from 139,000 in May.

Futures based on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes were both up less than 0.1%, while Dow futures rose 0.1%. The U.S. dollar index was little changed as the benchmark continued to stabilize following a drop earlier this week to the lowest levels in over three years.

August WTI crude oil futures fell 18 cents to $67.27 per barrel, while gold futures rose slightly to about $3,361 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: