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Talk of tariffs have set many on edge, but they have failed to materialize so far. That may change over the weekend, when President Trump says he will begin to levy tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. That led to a round of profit-taking and technical selling that led to moderate cuts for corn and soybeans. Wheat stayed in the green, meantime, on questions regarding Russia’s export potential.
Between Friday and Monday, most areas east of the Mississippi River will receive at least some measurable moisture, with a few fields set to gather another 1” or more over the next several days, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for the Midwest and Plains between February 6 and February 12, with some seasonally cool conditions likely for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow tracked another 225 points higher to 44,939 after a flurry of positive corporate earnings reports were released. Energy futures found modest gains, with crude oil inching 0.1% higher and staying just below $73 per barrel. Gasoline was up around 0.25%. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of all major grain contracts, including corn (+18,000), soybeans (+8,500), soymeal (+6,500), soyoil (+3,000) and CBOT wheat (+8,000).
Corn prices stay above $5 per bushel – barely
Prices suffered moderate cuts following a round of profit-taking and technical selling. March futures eroded 7 cents lower to $4.90, with May futures down 6.5 cents to $5.01.
Corn basis bids shifted a penny higher at an Ohio elevator and 4 cents lower at a Nebraska elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Thursday.
Corn exports found 55.3 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales were 18% lower week-over-week but still 39% above the prior four-week average. Totals sales were near the middle of analyst estimates, which ranged between 33.5 million and 70.9 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024/25 marketing year remain moderately above last year’s pace after reaching 824.1 million bushels.
Corn export shipments were 9% better than the prior four-week average, with 52.0 million bushels. Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain and Colombia were the top five destinations.
“The second quarter of the 21st century has some underlying trends and perspectives that need to be incorporated into any agricultural strategic plan,” argues David Kohl, professor emeritus with Virginia Tech University. Some of those trends include global urbanization, continued consolidation within agriculture and more. Kohl expands on these ideas in his latest column – click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Wednesday were for 514,860 contracts.
Soybean prices followed corn lower on Thursday
Prices are prone to seasonal downward pressure as Brazil harvests what is broadly expected to be a record-breaking production exceeding 6.2 billion bushels. Prices trended around 1.5% lower today.
The rest of the soy complex was steady to weak. March soymeal futures spilled more than 1.5% lower, while March soyoil futures finished today’s session unchanged.
Soybean basis bids fell 4 cents at an Ohio elevator and 2 cents at an Illinois river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Thursday.
Soybean export sales only reached 16.3 million bushels last week, which was 33% below the prior four-week average. That was also below the entire set of trade guesses, which ranged between 16.5 million and 62.5 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024/25 marketing year are still tracking moderately ahead of last year’s pace after reaching 1.213 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments shifted 29% lower week-over-week and landed 47% below the prior four-week average, with 27.1 million bushels. China, Turkey, Mexico, Spain and the United Kingdom were the top five destinations.
Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 264,977 contracts.
Wheat prices found moderate upside today
Traders engaged in a round of technical buying that lifted some contracts more than 1% higher. Kansas City HRW contracts found the biggest boost, with Chicago SRW and MGEX spring wheat contracts also capturing moderate gains.
Wheat export sales reached 16.8 million bushels last week, which was 96% better than the prior four-week average. That was toward the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 5.5 million and 20.2 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024/25 marketing year are still moderately above last year’s pace after reaching 490.5 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments jumped 97% above the prior four-week average, with 21.6 million bushels. South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Mexico and the Philippines were the top five destinations.
Russian consultancy Sovecon slightly trimmed its estimates for the country’s 2024/25 wheat exports, offering a new projection of 1.573 billion bushels. Sovecon cited sluggish shipping pace and challenging export conditions for its reduction. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
As expected, Japan purchased 3.3 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the United States and Canada in a regular tender that closed earlier today. Of the total, 33% was sourced from the U.S. The grain is for shipment between February 21 and March 20.
CBOT wheat settlements on Wednesday were for 145,760 contracts.