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Grain prices have seesawed up and down throughout the month of March. On Wednesday, it was time to swing back higher following a broad set of technical buying today. Winter wheat prices were the hottest ticket in town, with some contracts climbing more than 3% higher. Most corn contracts shifted 1.75% to 2% higher, while soybeans were up around 0.5% to 0.75%.
Light rains are possible in parts of the eastern Corn Belt over the next several days, but very few fields are likely to gather more than 0.25” between Thursday and Saturday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts a return to seasonally wet conditions for parts of the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region between March 25 and March 31, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the Midwest and Plains during that time.
On Wall St., the Dow stumbled 466 points lower in afternoon trading to 46,527 on the heels of a hotter-than-expected inflation report, and after the Federal Reserve opted not to decrease interest rates this month. The producer price index rose 0.7% in February, versus economists' estimates of 0.3%. Brent crude oil prices jumped more than 4% higher this afternoon to $107 per barrel. Gasoline futures eased around 0.25% lower, in contrast. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
Corn prices rebounded with a solid midweek outing
Prices responded favorably to an ample round of technical buying on Wednesday that lifted nearby contracts more than 2% higher. May futures rose 9.25 cents to $4.6325, with July futures up 9 cents to $4.7450. It’s also worth noting that March ’27 contracts are extremely close to the $5 per bushel benchmark after reaching $4.9950.
Ethanol production retreated from the prior week’s daily output of 1.126 million barrels down to 1.093 million barrels per day in the week through March 13, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today. That represents a six-week low but is still clipping along at a solid pace.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect to see old crop corn sales ranging between 23.6 million and 70.9 million bushels, plus up to 3.9 million bushels for the week ending March 12.
Unfortunately, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, or if long-term Iranian oil production is severely impacted, energy and fertilizer inputs on your operation will trend higher, according to a recent farmdocdaily article. As just one example, WTI crude oil spot prices jumped from around $65 to $95 per barrel, closely coinciding with the Iran conflict. Farm diesel prices are also on the rise. Click here to learn more.
European grain association Coceral increased its expectations for UK plus European Union corn production by 70.9 million bushels after offering a new estimate of 2.390 billion bushels. Higher supplies could stabilize or even reduce corn prices in the region.
Corn settlements on Tuesday were for 414,277 contracts.
Soybean prices shook off moderate overnight losses
Prices were able to gather up moderate gains following a round of technical buying that was partly spurred by spillover strength from a broad set of other commodities. May futures added 4.75 cents to $11.6175, with July futures up 5.25 cents to $11.7650.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. May soymeal futures climbed almost 3.25% higher, while May soyoil futures faded almost 0.75% lower.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 120,000 metric tons of soymeal for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year, which begins Oct. 1.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show combined old and new crop sales ranging between 12.9 million and 33.1 million bushels for the week ending March 12. Analysts also expect to see 150,000 to 350,000 metric tons of soymeal sales last week, plus up to 22,000 MT of soyoil sales.
California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and federal biofuel policies, in particular the Section 45Z clean fuel production tax credit (which favors soyoil feedstocks), are reshaping the landscape for grain growers across the United States. Special guests Bree Baatz and Matt Woolf, analysts with Terrain, joined us to talk more about it in the latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video – click here to watch.
On Monday, President Trump stated that the next round of U.S.-China trade talks could be delayed, and that was reaffirmed this morning in a follow-up statement. These meetings are now expected to be held in mid or late April. China is the world’s No. 1 soybean importer and typically accounts for 50% or more of total U.S. soybean exports.
Meantime, a recent analysis from the Soy Transportation Coalition highlighted just how much higher energy prices could impact agriculture. “If the higher diesel prices of the past month are still in place during fall harvest, a farmer who planted 500 bushels of soybeans and 500 bushels of corn would pay nearly $2,000 more for diesel fuel alone,” noted Farm Progress policy editor Joshua Baethge. “A grain elevator that handles 2 million bushels of soybeans and 4 million bushels of corn would pay nearly $100,000 more for diesel fuel.” Baethge offered more reporting around this subject – click here to learn more.
Soybean settlements on Tuesday were for 513,575 contracts.
Winter wheat prices red-hot in midweek trading
Most contracts finished with gains ranging between 2.5% and 3% following an abundance of technical buying on Wednesday. Ongoing geopolitical concerns, coupled with rising oil prices, were some of the culprits for today’s changes. May Chicago SRW futures rose 14.5 cents to $6.0425, with May Kansas City HRW futures jumping 19.25 cents to $6.26.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show combined old and new crop wheat sales ranging between 11.0 million and 22.1 million bushels for the week ending March 12.
European association Coceral lowered its estimates for EU wheat production by 47.8 million bushels after offering a new projection of 5.238 billion bushels. The EU (collectively) is one of the largest wheat producers globally and a major wheat exporter.
CBOT wheat settlements on Tuesday were for 121,001 contracts.