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With Bangladesh promising to purchase more than 8 million bushels of wheat from the United States to ease trade tensions, it begs the question: Do bully tactics work with our trading partners? These sort of short-term benefits are undeniable, but what are the long-term implications? We promise to keep monitoring the situation, which is admittedly hard to do as the Trump Administration is trying to simultaneously forge one-on-one deals with the rest of the world.
Variable rains will be possible across the central U.S. over the next several days, with fields gathering anything from trace amounts to 0.75” or more between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some seasonally wet weather in store for parts of the upper Midwest and eastern Corn Belt between August 6 and August 12, with warmer-than-normal conditions for almost the entire country during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow inched 46 points higher in afternoon trading to 44,679 as investors await the latest comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who asserted that any decision to cut interest rates will be dependent on data rather than calls from the Trump Administration to do so. Energy futures were also in the green. Nearby crude oil contracts tracked almost 1.25% higher to crest above $70 per barrel, while gasoline futures climbed more than 2% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+4,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-10,500), soybeans (-2,500), soymeal (-3,000) and CBOT wheat (-4,500).
Corn prices caught a short-covering break
Traders engaged in a round of technical buying on Wednesday that led to modest gains. September futures added 2.5 cents to $3.9175, with December futures up 1.5 cents to $4.1250.
Corn spot basis bids were mostly steady to weak after trending 2 to 8 cents lower across four Midwestern locations on Wednesday. An Iowa processor bucked the overall trend after shifting 2 cents higher today.
Ethanol production climbed to a daily average of 1.096 million barrels in the week through July 25, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today. That was also the highest daily volume since mid-June. Ethanol stocks trended 1% higher this past week.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show combined old and new crop sales ranging between 31.5 million and 94.5 million bushels for the week ending 24.
South Korea purchased 7.7 million bushels of animal feed corn from optional origins in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival in November and December.
Taiwan purchased 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn from the United States in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is for shipment between late September and mid-October.
Corn settlements on Tuesday were for 418,816 contracts.
Soybean prices eroded steadily lower on Wednesday
Traders resumed a robust round of technical selling that led to double digit losses in midweek trading. August futures stumbled 14 cents lower to $9.6775, with September futures down 13.5 cents to $9.76.
Soybean spot basis bids were steady to weak after trending 4 to 13 cents lower across four Midwestern locations on Wednesday.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show combined old and new crop soybean sales ranging between 7.3 million and 33.1 million bushels in the week through July 24. Analysts also expect to see soymeal sales ranging between 200,000 and 550,000 metric tons last week, plus up to 23,000 MT of soyoil sales.
With expectations of record or near-record crops this season, prices have been pushed below production costs, and many storage facilities are reaching capacity. That leaves farmers with some critical decisions about their marketing strategies. Special guest Ed Usset shares his thoughts on the situation and offers some advice in the latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video – click here to watch and learn more.
China’s need for soybean imports could wane in the coming months following record imports earlier this year, and with slow demand from its domestic animal feed producers ramping up local soymeal inventories. “If third-quarter prices stay weak and crushers face losses, fourth-quarter soybean purchases may fall short of expectations,” according to analyst Wang Wenshen. Unfortunately, that timing also aligns with the peak of the U.S. export marketing season.
Soybean settlements on Tuesday were for 269,470 contracts.
Winter wheat prices found mixed midweek results
Prices showed some variability following an uneven round of technical maneuvering on Wednesday. September Chicago SRW futures faded 6 cents lower to $5.2375, while September Kansas City HRW futures added 2.5 cents to $5.21.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect to see wheat sales ranging between 11.0 million and 25.7 million bushels for the week ending July 24.
Russian consultancy Sovecon upped the country’s export forecast during the 2025-26 season from 1.407 billion bushels to 1.591 billion bushels. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
In the young 2025-26 marketing year, Ukraine has exported 17.9 million bushels of wheat and 24.1 million bushels of corn since the beginning of July. Both sales are noticeably below last year’s pace so far and may be due in part to heavy rains that have hampered harvest in recent weeks. Ukraine is among the world’s top exporters of both commodities.
Meantime, wet weather in July may prove beneficial for wheat production potential in Brazil, with traders estimating the forecast increasing to 1.213 billion bushels. Australia’s weather bureau is also forecasting above-average rain over the next several months, which should assist yields for most of the country’s farms. Australia is one of the Southern Hemisphere’s only significant wheat exporters.
Bangladesh plans to purchase 8.1 million bushels of wheat from the United States as an intention to placate the Trump Administration amid ongoing trade negotiations. The country has traditionally preferred cheaper grain sourced from the Black Sea region. Further complicating the matter, Bangladesh has in the past received donated U.S. wheat from the now-dismantled USAID program.
Jordan issued an international tender to purchase up to 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on August 5. The grain is for shipment between September and November.
CBOT wheat settlements on Tuesday were for 119,806 contracts.