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Grain futures extended a July rally that’s lifted corn futures to two-month highs and soybean futures to 2 ½-year highs amid escalating concerns over adverse weather and war disruptions. Brent crude oil futures topped $102 per barrel, a two-month high, following reports Yemen's Houthis attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, causing further global supply disruptions following a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Wheat futures ended mixed but still near three-year highs.
Corn and soybeans remained firm despite some indications of moderating temperatures in extended forecasts. The latest NWS 6-to-10-day outlook, covering July 29-August 2, shows normal temperatures moving from the Great Lakes region across much of the eastern and central Corn Belt. But precipitation prospects remain below normal levels, suggesting yields could still suffer.
Corn closing in on $5 mark
December corn futures added 2.75 cents today to $4.8750, the contract’s fifth advance in the past six days and its highest close since May 20. September corn rose 2 cents to $4.64.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price rose just over 2 cents Thursday to $4.3350, the highest since May 19. Thursday’s average was about 30.5 cents below September futures, narrowing from 31.75 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures retained support from war and weather concerns amid intensifying conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea. Escalating attacks between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea fueled worries, with Russia reportedly restricting hours at its Novorossiysk port, a key grain shipping point.
In the U.S., two widely-followed weather models recently shifted toward agreement on a hot, dry outlook for the western Corn Belt and Northern Plains the next two weeks. Extreme heat may impede pollination and cut yield potential. Forecasts call for a string of highs in 90s Fahrenheit starting this weekend in Iowa and nearby states, with the temperatures expected to top 100 in the Dakotas.
U.S. corn export sales posted a mixed week but remain on a record pace for the old-crop year. Early today, USDA reported net old-crop corn sales at 332,700 metric tons (13.1 million bushels) for the week ended July 16, up 6% from the previous week but down 44% from the average for the previous four weeks. Mexico led buyers at 203,300 MT.
USDA also reported net weekly new-crop sales of 701,500 MT, more than double the previous week’s sales and at the high end of expectations. “Unknown destinations” was cited as the top buyer at 168,000 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. corn sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 3.41 billion bushels, up almost 24% from the same period in 2024-25 and already above USDA’s current full-year forecast for a record 3.325 billion bushels.
August weather outlook concerning for soybeans
November soybeans rose 4.75 cents Thursday to $12.4375, the fourth advance in the past five days and highest close for a new-crop contract since December 2023. August soybeans rose 4.5 cents to $12.3750.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose about 4.5 cents Thursday to just under $12.04, the highest since January 2024. Thursday’s average was about 33.75 cents below August futures, narrowing from 40 cents a week earlier.
Soybeans followed corn higher overnight as weather and war concerns pushed the energy complex higher, with diesel futures scoring another round of contract highs. The hot, dry Midwest outlook is especially concerning for soybeans as the crop nears its August critical pod-setting and pod-filling phase.
With U.S. soybean stockpiles already projected to shrink next year amid robust demand, widespread yield reductions would further tighten the supply-demand balance sheet. “There is no room for a two-bushel per acre national yield decline without pushing the November contract over the $13 mark,” said John Zanker, senior analyst at Farmer’s Keeper.
Old-crop U.S. soybean export sales continue to languish but China is emerging as a major buyer in the 2026-27 marketing year, based on USDA’s weekly update.
USDA reported net old-crop soybean sales of just 56,400 MT (2.1 million bushels) for the week ended July 16, down 70% from both the previous week and the four-week average. China was the week’s top buyer at 70,600 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations.
However, new-crop soybean sales came in at 1.54 million metric tons, down 13% from the previous week but around the middle of trade expectations. China was again the top buyer, purchasing just over 1 MMT. “Outstanding” sales of U.S. soybeans to China for 2026-27 delivery now total 2.262 MMT, according to USDA. That’s nearly one-fifth of China’s 12-MMT full-year purchase target that was part of a trade truce struck last fall with the U.S.
“I would call that good progress toward the (12-MMT) goal and supportive of demand when complemented by the U.S. biofuel program,” StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman said in a note.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. soybean export commitments now total 1.52 billion bushels, down over 18% from the same period last year but matching USDA’s full-year forecast of 1.52 billion bushels.
Wheat tour sees better North Dakota yield prospects
September SRW wheat fell 9.5 cents Thursday to $6.9625, down from a three-year closing high Wednesday. Futures have still rallied over $1.07, or 18%, from a four-month intraday low around $5.89 on June 30.
September HRW wheat slipped 3.75 cents Thursday to $7.5975, down from Wednesday’s three-year high. September spring wheat edged up 1 cent Thursday to $7.30, the contract’s eighth consecutive daily advance and its highest close since May 13.
Winter wheat futures saw some profit-taking and corrective pullback today even as war and weather kept markets on edge. Lackluster export numbers also discouraged buyers. Spring wheat retained support from concern extreme heat and dryness in the Northern Plains may harm yield potential.
U.S. spring wheat crops in northwest and north-central North Dakota are expected to produce above-average yields, scouts on the second day of an annual three-day tour said Wednesday, despite unusually hot days in the state this month.
The Wheat Quality Council tour estimated the average hard red spring wheat yield at 48 bushels per acre, up from 47.1 bushels in the same area last year and above the tour’s five-year average for this part of the state of 43.8 bushels, Reuters reported. A day ago, the tour projected an average yield in the southern half of the state at 46.0 bpa, down from 50 bpa the prior year.
Weekly wheat export sales showed signs of improvement but remain sluggish so far in the 2026-27 marketing year. USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales at 290,000 MT (10.7 million bushels) for the week ended July 16, up 23% from the previous week but down 14% from the four-week average. Sales were at the low end of expectations and led by Mexico at 137,600 MT.
For 2026-27 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 243.8 million bushels, down 26% from the same period in 2025-26. For the full year, USDA projects exports to drop to 775 million bushels, down 15% from 2025-26 and a three-year low.