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Grain prices were mixed on Monday as traders looked at several factors currently in play, including favorable South American growing conditions, a strengthening U.S. Dollar, a fresh round of grain export inspection data and more. Corn prices managed some light upside today, as did Kansas City HRW contracts. Soybeans and other wheat contracts landed in the red, in contrast.
Rain and/or snow will be stingy overall across the central U.S. over the next several days, but the Great Lakes region could catch some additional showers between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some wetter-than-normal conditions moving through the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between December 9 and December 15, with warmer-than-normal conditions west of the Mississippi River likely next week.
On Wall St., the Dow faded 87 points lower in afternoon trading to 44,823 as investors await sales data from this year’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping events. Energy futures were mixed. Crude oil made modest inroads, staying just above $68 per barrel this afternoon. Diesel eroded more than 0.75% lower, while gasoline climbed more than 0.75% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Friday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+7,500) and soyoil (+4,500) contracts but were net sellers of soybeans (-4,000), soymeal (-3,000) and CBOT wheat (-1,000).
Corn
Corn prices fought for modest gains following a round of technical buying on Monday, overcoming small cuts faced in overnight trading along the way. December futures added 2.25 cents to $4.2525, while March futures inched 0.25 cents higher to $4.3325.
Corn basis bids were steady to firm after improving 4 cents at an Illinois river terminal and 4 cents at an Iowa ethanol plant on Monday.
Corn export inspections faded slightly lower to 36.8 million bushels last week. That waws slightly on the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 25.6 million and 47.2 million bushels. Colombia was the No. 1 destination, with 9.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2024/25 marketing year are still tracking moderately above last year’s pace after reaching 435.8 million bushels.
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Corn settlements on Friday were for 198,807 contracts.
Soybeans
Soybean prices faded moderately lower on a round of technical selling after another consultancy predicted that Brazil’s soybean production potential is north of 6.2 million bushels – a record-breaking effort, if realized. January futures dropped 4 cents to $9.8550, with March futures down 5 cents to $9.91.
The rest of the soy complex also spilled into the red today. January soymeal futures eroded more than 1.25% lower, with January soyoil futures down almost 1%.
Soybean basis bids were steady to mixed after trending as much as 5 cents higher at an Indiana and as much as 5 cents lower at an Iowa processor on Monday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 4.9 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2024/25 marketing year, which began September 1.
Soybean export inspections eased slightly lower last week after reaching 76.7 million bushels. That was on the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 54.2 million and 88.2 million bushels. China was the No. 1 destination, with 34.4 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2024/25 marketing year are still moderately higher than last year’s pace after reaching 800.7 million bushels.
Brazilian consultancy Celeres estimates that the country’s 2024/25 soybean production will reach 6.276 billion bushels, joining several other entities that are predicting that production will exceed 6.2 billion bushels this season. Meantime, Brazilian consultancy AgRural estimates that soybean plantings are 91% complete through November 28, versus 85% over the same period last year.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 152,569 contracts.
Wheat
Wheat prices were mixed but mostly lower following a round of technical selling that was largely triggered by staunch overseas competition and a mostly pedestrian round of export inspection data from USDA this morning. March Chicago SRW futures eased 0.25 cents to $5.4775, March Kansas City HRW futures inched 0.25 cents higher to $5.41, and March MGEX spring wheat futures dropped 3.75 cents to $5.88.
Wheat export inspections faced moderate week-over-week declines after reaching 10.9 million bushels. That was near the middle of analyst estimates, which ranged between 7.3 million and 14.7 million bushels. The Philippines topped all destinations, with 3.3 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2024/25 marketing year remain moderately above last year’s pace, with 403.7 million bushels.
Australia’s ARABES modestly raised its forecast for the country’s 2024/25 wheat production after offering a new estimate of 1.172 billion bushels. That would be 23% above last season’s production and 20% higher than the historical 10-year average, if realized. Australia, along with Argentina, is one of the Southern Hemisphere’s only significant wheat exporter.
Russian consultancy Sovecon estimates that the country’s wheat exports reached 150.6 million bushels in November. That would be a month-over-month decrease of nearly 27% and the lowest monthly volume since July, if realized. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
Ukraine’s grain exports in the 2024/25 marketing year included wheat sales totaling 330.3 million bushels and corn sales totaling 283.8 million bushels through December 2. Both commodities are trending ahead of last year’s pace so far, and Ukraine is among the world’s top exporters of both crops.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 71,209 contracts.
