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Whether it’s ongoing tariff threats, South America’s harvest, or the fact that U.S. planting season is just around the corner, bearish sentiment pushed most grain prices mostly lower in midweek trading. Corn prices were hit the hardest, slumping more than 1.5% lower. Soybeans also incurred moderate losses, while wheat prices ended today’s session with mixed but mostly lower results.
It will be a mixed bag of rainfall for the central U.S. between Thursday and Sunday, with some Mid-South fields likely to gather as much as 1.5” or more later this week, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally warm, wet weather for most of the Midwest and Plains between March 19 and March 25.
On Wall St., the Dow was near-even, inching 11 points higher in afternoon trading to 41,451, with tech stocks rebounding after incurring heavy losses earlier this week. Energy futures pushed noticeably higher, with crude oil jumping more than 2% this afternoon to $67 per barrel. Gasoline also climbed more than 2% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of soyoil (+1,500) contracts but were net sellers of corn (-2,500), soybeans (-3,000), soymeal (-1,000) and CBOT wheat (-2,000).
Corn prices suffered a significant technical setback
Ongoing tariff threats and the prospect of U.S. farmers planting more than 94 million acres later this spring was enough to set up a pattern of technical selling on Wednesday. March futures lost 7.75 cents to $4.4875, with May futures down 8.75 cents to $4.6150.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed after fading 5 cents lower at an Iowa processor while improving 1 to 2 cents across three other Midwestern locations on Wednesday.
Ethanol production faded moderately lower in the week through March 7 after posting a daily average of 1.062 million barrels, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today. Ethanol supplies moved incrementally higher this past week.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show combined old and new crop corn sales ranging between 28.5 million and 59.1 million bushels for the week ending March 6.
Tariffs are on. No, they’re not. Yes, they are. Wait, now they’re off again. If you’re confused about the merry-go-round trade approach, you’re not alone. Catch up with the latest updates from Farm Progress policy editor Joshua Baethge, who has diligently stayed on top of the ongoing situation – click here to learn more.
“We’ve made it through the crop insurance averaging month of February, and hopefully, the long days of winter are behind us,” according to Brett Mapel, ag risk management advisor with Advance Trading. “The next month serves as the on ramp to the busy part of the growing season.” What factors could shape your near-term grain marketing strategies? Mapel digs into the details in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Meantime, if you missed yesterday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from USDA, be sure to catch up on our recap that looked at what data affected grain markets the most – click here for details.
Corn settlements on Tuesday were for 381,871 contracts.
Soybean prices eroded 1% to 1.25% lower today
Prices continue to be negatively affected by South American harvest progress, with Brazil still expecting to see a record-breaking production. March futures lost 10.25 cents to $9.8750, with May futures down 9.5 cents to $10.0175.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red. May soymeal futures trended 0.5% lower, with May soyoil futures down a similar percentage.
Soybean basis bids climbed 15 cents higher at an Iowa processor and inched a penny higher at an Ohio elevator while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Wednesday.
Prior to tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show combined old and new crop soybean sales ranging between 10.1 million and 29.4 million bushels in the week through March 6. Analysts also expect to see soymeal sales ranging between 190,000 and 410,000 metric tons, along with soyoil sales ranging between 40,000 and 85,000 MT.
Brazilian exporter lobby Anec raised its estimates for the country’s soybean exports by more than 4% to 567.7 million bushels as its record-breaking crop continues to be harvested. That’s very close to the all-time monthly record of 576.9 million bushels from April 2021. Brazilian soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.38 million metric tons this month.
An Argentina oilseed workers union had planned to launch a national strike across the country’s soybean processing plants starting today, but it was called off late yesterday following a governmental order. The strike was over an ongoing wage dispute.
Soybean settlements on Tuesday were for 168,749 contracts.
Wheat prices turned in a mixed midweek performance
Prices were mixed but mostly lower following an uneven round of technical maneuvering on Wednesday. May Chicago SRW futures dropped 1.75 cents to $5.55, May Kansas City HRW futures added 2 cents to $5.74, and May MGEX spring wheat futures fell 3 cents to $5.9425.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect to see combined old and new crop wheat sales ranging between 10.1 million and 27.6 million bushels for the week ending March 6.
According to Statistics Canada, the country’s all-wheat plantings are expected to reach 27.5 million acres this season, which is a year-over-year increase of 2.6%. That comes in part at the expense of decreased barley (-2.0%) and canola (-1.7%) plantings in 2025.
Ukraine’s foreign minister said today that a recent Russian missile strike on the Black Sea port of Odesa damaged a grain vessel that was delivering wheat to Algeria and is an attack on global food security. “It demonstrates how close this war is to Algeria, Syria and other countries,” according to Andril Sybiha.
Tunisia issued an international tender to purchase 3.7 million bushels of soft milling wheat from optional origins that closes on Thursday. The grain is for shipment in April and May.
Jordan issued an international tender to purchase up to 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on March 18. The grain is for shipment in July and August.
CBOT wheat settlements on Tuesday were for 90,550 contracts.