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What do the following years have in common – 1977, 1978, 1995, 2013 and 2018? Each of these years “featured” a federal government shutdown, each lasting between 12 and 35 days. The current shutdown has now eclipsed all prior events. For the agriculture sector, that means several pieces of key crop and export data are not available, leading to more volatility. Fortunately, prices have generally been on an upward swing in recent weeks, but that was not the case today. Soybean prices coughed up massive losses of around 2.25%, while corn prices slumped approximately 1.25% to 1.5% lower. Winter wheat prices also incurred heavy losses, with some contracts stumbling more than 3% lower.
The Great Lakes region has the best chance to see some rain over the next several days, with some fields likely to see another 0.75” or more between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Other parts of the Corn Belt could catch a stray shower over the weekend, too. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some seasonally wet, warm conditions for most of the Midwest and Plains between November 13 and November 19.
On Wall St, the Dow stumbled 238 points lower in afternoon trading to 47,072, weighed down by additional losses by AI stocks. Some labor data added to the bearish sentiment, with 153,000 layoffs occurring in October (which was almost triple September’s volume). Energy futures were mixed, with Brent crude oil slipping 0.25% lower this afternoon to stay just above $63 per barrel. Gasoline futures jumped 3% higher, in contrast. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices were caught in the crossfire
Demand optimism is still solid, but spillover weakness from a bevy of other commodities led to a round of technical selling on Thursday. December and March futures each shed 6.5 cents to settle at $4.2875 and $4.43, respectively.
The USDA failed to issue its weekly export sales report for the sixth consecutive week as the federal government shutdown drags on, but analysts think corn sales came in between 31.5 million and 78.7 million bushels for the week ending October 30. From a historical perspective, 50 to 75 million bushels is considered a strong showing for corn sales. Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea and Spain have been the top five buyers so far in the current marketing year.
Meantime, speculation about Chinese corn and soybean purchases continues to add volatility in the grain markets. Absent official governmental data, there are still clues to watch for. Corn basis tends to strengthen when Chinese buyers enter the market, for example. And rail movement to Pacific Northwest ports also tends to increase. China tends to book Panamax and larger vessels when buying U.S. grain.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s corn exports will reach 219.4 million bushels in November, which would be a year-over-year increase of 13.2%, if realized. Official governmental data shows that Brazilian corn exports reached 255.9 million bushels in October.
Corn settlements on Wednesday were for 375,758 contracts.
Soybean prices faded on lingering China trade concerns
Worries over whether China is willing (or even able) to make good on recent promises to purchase 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans later this year led to a round of technical selling. Spillover weakness from other commodities generated additional headwinds today. November futures stumbled 28 cents lower to $10.9175, with January futures down 26.75 cents to $11.0750.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red. December soymeal futures were slashed by 3.75%, with December soyoil futures down almost 0.75%.
Analysts think U.S. soybean exports for the week ending October 30 ranged between 14.7 million and 73.5 million bushels. Analysts also expect soymeal sales to range between 50,000 and 450,000 metric tons last week, plus 5,000 to 25,000 MT of soyoil sales. The European Union, Mexico, Egypt, Japan and Taiwan have represented the top five destinations for U.S. soybean exports so far in the 2025-26 marketing year.
Brazil’s Anec expects the country’s soybean exports to come in around 138.5 million bushels in October. That would be a year-over-year increase of 61.1%, if realized. Official governmental data showed October soybean exports at 247.2 million bushels, which was noticeably above year-ago levels of 173.0 million bushels.
“How to make your kids want to come back home,” is an important topic for many farm operations. Will the next generation feel connected and respected? Or will they return because they feel obligated (or because you need the help)? Mike Downey, farm business consultant with Uncommon Farms, says: “The real goal is to shape a farm culture that attracts the next generation because they see opportunity, purpose and balance there.” Downey explores this sensitive topic in his latest More than Dirt blog – click here to learn more.
Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 293,390 contracts.
Winter wheat prices incurred heavy losses
Prices weren’t spared in today’s broad selloff, unfortunately. The resulting round of technical selling led to double-digit losses. December Chicago SRW futures tumbled 19.25 cents lower to $5.3550, while December Kansas City HRW futures lost 17.75 cents to $5.2225.
Absent USDA’s export sales report this morning, analysts estimate that U.S. wheat exports ranged between 9.2 million and 23.9 million bushels in the week through October 30. For context, a typical October week would generate sales ranging between 8 million and 14 million bushels.
China purchased 2.2 million bushels of soft red winter wheat and 2.2 million bushels of hard red spring wheat following a recent commitment that it will resume purchasing U.S. grain. The U.S. market share of Chinese wheat imports typically ranges between 10% and 25%.
South Korea issued an international tender to purchase 2.2 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins (including the U.S.). South Korea tends to import around 165 million bushels of wheat every year, and the U.S. typically commands a market share ranging between 40% and 60%.
In a separate private deal, South Korean millers are seeking 1.8 million bushels of wheat sourced from the U.S. that closes on Friday. Additional details regarding shipment were not immediately available.
CBOT wheat settlements on Wednesday were for 134,794 contracts.