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Harvest progress should be moving at full tilt into early next week, with nearly no rain forecast for the central U.S. between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Later this month, NOAA’s new eight-to-14-day outlook calls for seasonally wet conditions for most areas west of the Mississippi River between Nov. 13 and Nov. 19, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for almost the entire U.S. during this time.
On Wall Street, the Dow slid another 81 points lower in afternoon trading to 51,441, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq bounced 1.5% higher. Some traders remain wary of a “concentration risk” that has built up in U.S. equity markets. Energy futures saw a slight rebound, with Brent crude oil trading less than 0.25% higher this afternoon to stay above $98 per barrel. Gasoline futures were up around 0.5%. The U.S. dollar firmed moderately.
Corn prices ease off multi-month lows
Prices held on to modest overnight gains to rise slightly above the lowest levels since late June following some light technical buying today. December futures added 1.5 cents to $4.4150, with March futures up 0.75 cents to $4.5525.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 4.0 million bushels of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1.
Ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA WASDE report, a survey of analysts from Reuters expects the agency to show corn yields slipping from 181.2 bushels per acre in October down to 180.3 bpa. If realized, that could push production back below the 16 billion-bushel benchmark, with an average trade guess of 15.962 billion bushels. However, the range of those guesses has a pretty wide range, from 15.344 billion bushels to 16.203 billion bushels.
Meantime, earlier this week, Mexico purchased a record 1.73 million metric tons of corn in a flash sale. Could that massive sale spark a rally? That’s what Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Total Farm Marketing, is wondering.
“Now that prices are back down to what many view as historically cheap values for U.S. corn futures, export demand has been brought back into the spotlight,” she noted in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog. Click here to learn more.
Amid worries about a potash shortage, a recent purchasing agreement with Belarus announced by President Donald Trump may not add significant volume to current coffers, according to Christopher Glen, vice president of public affairs and advocacy at TFI.
“Sending additional potash to the U.S. market would require Belarus to divert production away from existing customers, something Belarus is unlikely to do, especially when it comes to export markets that remained open to them amid international sanctions,” Glen said. Click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 400,059 contracts.
Soybean prices move moderately higher
Some end-of-week technical buying led to variable gains on Friday, with some contracts up almost 0.5% today. Prices still slumped more than 30 cents lower over the past week amid ongoing seasonal harvest pressure, however. January futures gained 5.5 cents to $11.9375, with March futures up 3 cents to $11.9925.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. January soymeal futures tracked more than 0.5% higher, while January soy oil futures faced fractional losses.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5.0 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1.
Prior to next Tuesday’s WASDE report from USDA, analysts expect to see soybean yields increase slightly, from 53.1 bushels per acre up to 53.5 bpa. That would also modestly increase production estimates, from 4.562 billion bushels last month up to 4.597 billion bushels in November.
Those production estimates constitute record levels if realized, eclipsing the prior best in 2021 by more than 100 million bushels.
“November is shaping up to be a pivotal month for U.S. soybean growers, and not just because of the USDA reports,” Farm Futures senior editor Bruce Blythe noted. “Record domestic crushing demand and a sharp China-driven rebound in soybean exports would seem to suggest the October slump will have run its course soon, and prices retain longer-term upside.”
Blythe investigated the current environment in his latest Soybean Outlook column. Click here to learn more.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 268,807 contracts.
Winter wheat prices return to the red
Prices remain sluggish as the bears continue to run the show. The resulting round of technical selling on Friday left December Chicago soft red winter futures falling 8 cents to $5.9125, with December Kansas City hard red winter futures down 3.25 cents to $6.3250.
Ahead of next Tuesday’s WASDE report, a Bloomberg survey of analysts suggests U.S. wheat stocks will move 4 million bushels higher after offering an average estimate of 744 million bushels.
As the war drags on between Russia and Ukraine, both countries have levied recent attacks targeting power plants and other energy infrastructure. “Every power plant in Ukraine has suffered from Russian attacks in one way or another,” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday.
Both countries are also scrambling to get their recently harvested grain exported amid the ongoing conflict. Ukraine and Russia are both significant wheat exporters, and Ukraine was the world’s No. 4 corn exporter prior to the Russian invasion.
French farm office FranceAgriMer reported that 84% of the country’s soft wheat crop has been planted through Nov. 2. That’s moderately ahead of last season’s pace so far. France is Europe’s top grain producer.
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 167,223 contracts.