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Traders headed into the three-day Independence Day holiday weekend with a mixed round of technical maneuvering that helped some grain prices and hurt others. Corn, soybean and soymeal prices all tested modest to moderate gains following a somewhat choppy session today. Soyoil futures landed in the red, in contrast, with wheat prices also incurring moderate losses on Thursday.
Variable rains will be likely across much of the Corn Belt over the next several days, with a band of storms stretching from western Kansas up through Wisconsin dropping another 0.75” or more between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet conditions for much of the central U.S. between July 10 and July 6, with below-average temperatures building across the Central Plains during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow climbed another 344 points higher in afternoon trading to 44,828 as a better-than-expected jobs report helped ignite fresh investor optimism. Nonfarm payrolls grew by 147,000 last month, above the average economist expectation of 110,000. Energy futures faded moderately lower, with crude oil down 0.75% this afternoon to $65 per barrel. Gasoline eased around 0.25% lower. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
On Wednesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+15,500), soybeans (+7,000), soyoil (+5,000) and CBOT wheat (+5,000) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-500).
NOTE: The grain markets will be closed on Friday, July 4, in observance of the Federal Independence Day holiday. Be sure to come back to Farm Futures on Monday, July 7, for our next round of agricultural news and market analysis. (And don’t accidentally set your neighbor’s yard on fire like we did last year!)
Corn prices continued to test gains
Prices were back in the green after another round of technical buying lifted them moderately higher. July futures added 3.75 cents to $4.33, with September futures up 3 cents to $4.21.
Corn spot basis bids were steady to slightly firm after trending a penny higher at an Ohio elevator and an Iowa river terminal on Thursday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5.9 million bushels of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year, which began September 1.
Corn exports found 58.0 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales faded 28% lower week-over-week and were 37% below the prior four-week average. Total sales were near the middle of analyst estimates, which ranged between 35.4 million and 74.8 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024-25 marketing year remain well above last year’s pace after reaching 2.213 billion bushels.
Corn export shipments slid 11% below the prior four-week average, with 57.7 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia and Taiwan were the top five destinations.
A delayed second corn harvest could benefit U.S. old crop corn exports in the short term. However, will corn exports from Brazil create fresh headwinds for U.S. farmers later this year? That’s what’s on the mind of Cesar Cruz, director of research with Advance Trading. Cruz shares his thoughts in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Wednesday were for 417,330 contracts.
Soybean prices tested modest gains
Prices didn’t make much headway in a choppy session but did make some headway following some net technical buying on Thursday. July futures added 4.75 cents to $10.5525, with August futures inching 0.75 cents higher to $10.5425.
Soybean spot basis bids were steady to firm after tracking 3 to 10 cents higher across four Midwestern locations on Thursday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 8.3 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2024-25 marketing year, which began September 1. Private exporters additionally announced the sale of 195,000 metric tons of soymeal, which was also for delivery to unknown destinations.
Soybean exports gathered 25.8 million bushels in combined old and new crop sales last week. Old crop sales improved 62% versus the prior four-week average. China was again absent, with Mexico and unknown destinations stepping up purchases. Total sales were near the middle of analyst estimates, which ranged between 11.0 million and 36.7 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2024-25 marketing year are still trending moderately above last year’s pace, with 1.685 billion bushels.
Soybean export shipments eased 5% lower week-over-week after reaching 9.2 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia were the top five destinations.
Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 272,360 contracts.
Winter wheat prices gave back some of Wednesday’s gains
Traders resumed a pattern of technical selling that led to moderate losses on Thursday. September Chicago SRW futures lost 7.25 cents to $5.5675, with September futures down 6.25 cents to $5.36.
Wheat exports reached 21.5 million bushels last week. That was on the very high end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 7.3 million and 22.0 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year have pulled slightly ahead of last year’s pace after reaching 47.4 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments reached 20.3 million bushels last week. Mexico, Indonesia, the Philippines, the Dominican Republic and Taiwan were the top five destinations.
Jordan issued an international tender to purchase up to 4.4 million bushels of milling wheat from optional origins that closes on July 15. The grain is for shipment in October and November.
And finally, Indiana farmer Kyle Stackhouse has been thinking about the “wonders” of his wheat harvest. For example, is wheat straw better for fertilizer or cash flow? Should he plant additional wheat acres in 2026? Can wheat come off quickly to give double-crop soybeans a timely start? Stackhouse ponders this and more in his latest Between the Fencerows column – click here to learn more.
CBOT wheat settlements on Wednesday were for 153,696 contracts.