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Grain prices were little changed on Columbus Day, which is typically a slow day due to partial governmental closures, with banks also closed and mail undelivered. Corn and winter wheat prices incurred modest losses, while soybeans pushed slightly higher. Soybeans failed to be further rattled by President Trump’s threat late last week that he would levy a new 100% tariff on all Chinese imports staring on November 1. Time will tell if those threats materialize into reality, or whether trade talks in late October will prove fruitful. Trump also walked back (sort of) his Friday comment with a follow-up social media comment on Sunday that said, in part, “The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
Rains will be largely relegated to parts of the Northern Plains, Central Plains and upper Midwest over the next few days, with few fields likely to gather more than 0.25” between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts some seasonally wet conditions for the Northern Plains and part of the upper Midwest between October 20 and October 26, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the eastern half of the U.S. during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow jumped 655 points higher in afternoon trading to 46,134 as investors try to read the tea leaves on President Trump’s latest trade comments. He had some harsh words on Friday but later softened his stance over the weekend, promising trade relations “will all be fine.” Energy futures also pushed higher, with Brent crude oil trending nearly 2% higher to $63 per barrel. Gasoline futures moved more than 2% higher. The U.S. Dollar eased slightly lower and is down nearly 8.9% year-to-date.
Corn prices tilted lower to start the week
A round of technical selling on Monday was enough to clip prices 0.25% to 0.5% lower today. Harvest progress makes rallies more hard to come by this time of year. December futures dropped 2.25 cents to $4.1075, with March futures down 1.75 cents to $4.2725.
Is there anything good that comes with a bear market? That’s a key question Ed Usset, marketing specialist with the University of Minnesota, found himself asking. “Yes, and that good thing is the return of large carrying charges in the corn market,” he argues. “And large carrying charges create an opportunity to sell the carry at harvest.” Usset explores the situation in greater detail in his latest Advanced Marketing blog – click here to learn more.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported that 25.6% of the country’s 2025-26 corn crop has been planted through mid-October. Total plantings could reach 19.3 million acres, which would be a year-over-year increase of 9.6%, if realized. Production estimates could reach a record high of approximately 2.4 billion bushels if favorable weather trends hold up.
Brazilian consultancy AgRural reported that 45% of the country’s 2025-26 first corn crop has been planted through last Thursday. Total corn production in the current season could reach approximately 5.28 billion bushels, which would be a record-breaking effort, if realized.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 338,634 contracts.
Soybean prices tested modest Monday gains
Prices were firm overnight and held onto those gains following some light technical buying today. November futures added a penny to $10.0775, with January futures up 2 cents to $10.2525.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. December soymeal futures shifted more than 0.25% lower, while December soyoil futures rose 1.25% higher.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier today that President Trump is still on track to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of the month, pushing down speculation that the meeting would be called off following contentious comments from Trump late last week. “We have substantially de-escalated,” according to Bessent, who added “China is a command and control economy. They are neither going to command nor control us.”
Meantime, China’s soybean imports reached a record level of 472.5 million bushels in September, which was a year-over-year increase of 13.2%. It also marked the fifth consecutive month where China hit record-high monthly imports. Nearly all of that total was sourced from Brazil, and none of it was sourced from the U.S. Cumulative volume over the first nine months of 2025 have reached approximately 3.16 billion bushels. China is by far the world’s No. 1 soybean importer.
Ahead of the next monthly report from the National Oilseed Processors Association, out Wednesday, analysts expect that group to show a September crush of around 185 to 190 million bushels. That would be in line with August volume of 189.81 million bushels, if realized. It would also be noticeably better than year-ago volume of 178.2 million bushels.
Brazil’s AgRural consultancy reported that 14% of the country’s 2025-26 soybean crop is in the ground through October 9, representing the third-fastest pace on record so far. Total plantings could reach 121.2 million acres this season, which would be a yearly increase of 3.7%, if realized. USDA expects to see Brazilian soybean exports reach 4.18 billion bushels in the current marketing year.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 402,241 contracts.
Winter wheat prices failed to find forward momentum
Prices tested gains at times in mid-morning trading but ultimately settled modestly lower following some late-session technical selling. December Chicago SRW futures dropped 1.75 cents to $4.9675, with December Kansas City HRW futures also down 1.75 cents to $4.8125.
Russian consultancy Sovecon estimates that the country’s 2025 production could reach 3.23 billion bushels, which is a modest increase over its prior projection. That would also be a yearly increase of 6.3%, if realized. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
Saudi Arabia purchased 18.4 million bushels of wheat from optional origins in an international tender that recently close. Likely sources include the Black Sea region, Australia and Brazil. The grain is for arrival in April 2026.
Algeria purchased 1.8 million bushels of durum wheat from optional origins in an international tender that closes on Wednesday. The grain is for shipment in November and December.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 98,266 contracts.