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There have been a dearth of details so far following the recent high-level meetings between Presidents Trump and Xi that concluded today. However, Trump did indicate that he had a “great meeting” with Xi but also did not answer any questions regarding the actual substance of the talks. Is no news good news? Markets were certainly skittish today as traders awaited further details. Soybean prices were down double digits early on Friday before erasing most of those losses. Corn prices managed fractional gains, while winter wheat prices continued to erode moderately lower.
Little rain is expected east of the Mississippi River over the weekend into early next week, but additional showers and storms in Nebraska, Iowa and North Dakota could deliver another 1” to 1.5” or more to some fields between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook calls for drier-than-normal conditions moving into the Plains between October 2 and October 8, with near-normal temperatures likely for a large chunk of the Corn Belt during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow climbed 421 points higher in afternoon trading to 51,771, erasing gains earlier this week to eek out a 0.1% win since Monday morning. Part of todays gains could be attributed to lower energy prices, with Brent crude oil stumbling more than 2% lower this afternoon to $104 per barrel. Gasoline futures cratered almost 4.75% lower. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices finished Friday with fractional gains
Prices started with moderate overnight losses before crawling back above water amid some technical buying on Friday. December futures added 0.75 cents to $5.2825, with March futures up half a penny to $5.42.
There’s a well-worn adage in the grain markets that goes something like, “Oats know where corn goes,” noted Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Total Farm Marketing. “The idea is that oats are more of a pure market — not influenced as much by fund money or noncommercial traders, and traded primarily on actual oat market supply-and-demand fundamentals,” she said. “While the correlation cannot in any way be perceived as gospel, it is something that traders keep an eye on. As of this writing, corn futures have traded in a sideways pattern for nearly three weeks, while oat futures have quietly moved higher, climbing over the $4 price resistance area that held it captive for nearly two years.” Blohm took a closer look at the situation in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Regarding input costs, fertilizer prices are a definite pain point moving into the 2027 season. But will taking advantage of “free” nitrogen and in-season applications take some of the sting away? For starters, Practical Farmers of Iowa offers an N Rate Risk Protection Program to help farmers find the optimal and economical N rate. Participants must farm in eligible counties in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota or Wisconsin. There are other resources available – click here to learn more.
Meantime, almost 20 years ago, Kansas State University’s “The Economics of On-Farm Storage” made the case that farmers looking to capture additional profits from marketing to the growing ethanol industry in the state might benefit from expanding their on-farm storage. That opportunity is still there for many, according to Kansas Farmer editor Jennifer Latzke. Costs, travel patterns and room for expansion are three big components to consider before expanding grain bin storage on your operation. Click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 371,475 contracts.
Soybean prices settled with narrowly mixed results
Traders are still waiting for more details coming out of the latest Trump-Xi meetings, but generic platitudes from both leaders seemed to be enough to erase double-digit losses incurred in overnight trading. January futures inched half a penny higher to $13.3250, while March futures eased 0.25 cents lower to $13.3950.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. December soymeal futures trended 0.38% lower, while December soyoil futures tracked 0.43% higher.
On Thursday, private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 4.4 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year, which began September 1.
What should you be watching for as September draws to a close? The latest edition of Top Tips takes a look at everything from this week’s Trump-Xi meetings to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, harvest pressure in the U.S., what the rising U.S. Dollar means for grain prices and much more. Click here to get started.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 257,619 contracts.
Winter wheat prices continued to see red
Prices languished through much of this past week on a fairly consistent pattern of technical selling. Some late-session technical buying limited losses on Friday, however. December Chicago SRW futures dropped 3.75 cents to $7.0325, with December Kansas City HRW futures down 5 cents to $7.62.
The latest readings from the U.S. Drought Monitor, out yesterday and covering the week through September 22, continues to show little to no drought problems through most of the Midwest, with the exceptions of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. The South (defined here as Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and Mississippi) continue to be majorly affected by drought conditions, with 97.2% of the region affected at this time. The High Plains have also been hampered this fall, with 88.0% of that region affected.
Egypt, India and Turkey have all submitted formal proposals to unblock Black Sea shipping as fighting continues between Russia and Ukraine – with the latter reportedly waiting for the former’s reaction to these plans. “I had separate conversations with the leadership of these countries, and our Ministry of Foreign Affairs has also been in contact with their counterparts in these countries,” according to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. “In addition to these countries, there were also proposals from other nations to deblock the Black Sea.” Both countries would massively benefit from a drawdown in the current conflict as they seek safe passage of grain exports out of the region.
And finally, it bears repeating, said David Kohl, professor emeritus with Virginia Tech University: “During a credit-tightening cycle, proactive communication and gradual adjustments are recommended before major financial problems arise. The focus for both lenders and producers should include closely monitoring working capital and operating lines of credit.” The ability to assess, adapt, execute and monitor is a critical skill in the current environment – click here to learn more.
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 101,743 contracts.