Some light snowfall is possible over the weekend for a large section of the Midwest and Plains, based on the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Much of the eastern half of the country, including the eastern Corn Belt, will remain in the grips of below-normal temperatures for the first part of next month, based on the National Weather Service’s 8-to-14-day outlook, which covers February 6-12. Precipitation prospects for the Midwest and Plains are expected to be near- to below-normal during that period.
Wall Street also ended the week on a down note, with the S&P 500 index down over 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite off over 1% as Microsoft extended Thursday’s sharp post-earnings drop. Stocks took pressure despite a generally favorable reception from analysts for President Donald Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. Warsh is a former Fed governor whose credibility could ease investor concerns over the central bank’s independence.
Corn still up from five-month lows
March corn futures slipped 2.5 cents Friday to $4.2825, halting a two-day upswing that sent the contract to its highest level in over almost three weeks. Futures fell 2.25 cents for the week but are still up 11 cents from a five-month low at $4.1725 reached January 13.
Corn faded overnight following two days of gains as March futures retreated back toward the middle of this week’s range. The market was able to extend a recent rally the past two days but gains faded both times, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction that could lead to sideways trade into early February. March futures failed to close above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.3075, the past two days.
March futures face resistance around $4.35, 1 cent above Thursday’s intraday high. Initial support comes in at the 10-day SMA around $4.27 and this week’s low at $4.26.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell over 2.25 cents Friday to $3.93, down about 0.5 cent for the week. Friday’s average was about 35.25 cents below March futures, narrowing from 37 cents a week earlier.
Corn futures modestly extended the past week’s pre-holiday rally as bullish demand dynamics and renewed strength in wheat supported prices. With grain markets closing early Wednesday ahead of Christmas Day and trading volume increasingly thin, it’s unclear whether the market will be able to generate much additional upside, at least this week.
USDA’s weekly export sales report Thursday showed a sharp dropoff from an historic high earlier this month as expected, but demand continues to run at a record pace for the full year.
Net U.S. corn sales totaled 1.649 million metric tons (64.9 million bushels) during the week ended January 22, down 59% from a five-year high hit the previous week but still up 5% from the average for the previous four weeks, USDA reported. Sales were just below the mid-point of trade expectations and were led by Japan at 365,100 metric tons (MT), followed by Mexico at 350,800 MT.
For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, sales continue to run at a brisk clip that could exceed USDA’s full-year export projection for a record 3.2 billion bushels. Sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 2.271 billion bushels, up 33% from the same period in 2024-25.
Like it or not, farmland has become an infrastructural landing zone for energy expansion as AI’s explosive growth demands ever-expanding sources of power. As solar development accelerates, Midwest farmland is “in a weird set of crosshairs” Farm Progress executive editor Holly Spangler says. “Is it a business opportunity or unwanted attention? Depending on who you ask, it’s both.”
Soybean export sales down sharply last week
March soybeans sank 8 cents Friday to $10.6425, ending a two-day upswing. Futures dropped 3.5 cents for the week from $10.6775 at the end of last week but are still up 26.5 cents from a three-month intraday low at $10.3775 posted January 13.
November futures shed 10 cents Friday to $10.7975, dropping the soybean-to-corn ratio to just under 2.37, down from an eight-week high earlier earlier this week and the lowest since January 20.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price fell 7.75 cents Friday to just over $9.9725, down about 0.5 cent for the week. Friday’s average was about 67 cents below March futures, narrowing from 70 cents a week earlier.
March soybean meal rose $2.50 to $301.10 per ton, a one-week high. March soybean oil fell 29 points to 48.79 cents per pound.
The soy complex came under pressure overnight from as a slide in crude oil futures encouraged profit-taking following soybeans’ recent rally. Signs that a recent resurgence in soybean exports is tapering off also weighed on prices, with China’s demand slowing.
USDA reported net U.S. soybean sales during the week ended January at 819,000 MT (30.1 million bushels), down 67% from the previous week but still up 92% from the average from the previous four weeks. Sales were at the low end of expectations and were led by China at 233,500 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from “unknown destinations.”
Soybean exports continue to lag sharply behind last year’s pace after China stopped buying U.S. beans for about six months in 2025 due to a protracted dispute with the Trump administration. For 2025-26 to date, U.S. export commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 1.243 billion bushels, down 20% from the same period last year.
Based on Thursday’s report, USDA-confirmed China purchases for 2025-26 total about 9.65 MMT (354.7 million bushels), though the country is believed to have already met a 12-MMT near-term target that arose from last fall’s trade truce between Beijing and Washington. That would still leave China’s purchase commitments down sharply from roughly 20.2 MMT at this point in 2024-25.
Soybeans remains underpinned by hopes for higher federal biofuels mandates, with President Trump expressing support for the industry in his Iowa speech Tuesday. Last week, reports circulated the administration was weighing sharply higher biodiesel blending targets.
Elsewhere, weather in Brazil remains largely favorable for crop development and harvest is accelerating. But extreme heat and dryness in Argentina threatens to trim corn and soybean yields.
With temperatures soaring near 104 degrees Fahrenheit in recent days, Argentina’s key growing regions are in urgent need of rain, but significant relief is not forecast until February, Reuters reported. “This heat wave will reduce corn yields,” meteorologist German Heinzenknecht told Reuters. He downward revisions to production estimates are likely, with early-planted corn being the most affected.
Below normal rainfall continues to plague Argentine crops. Crop ratings are in decline, but they’re still well above the five-year average for late January. Recent rains provided some relief, with more expected in the 6- to 10-day period. But those rains are expected to miss the eastern third of the crop belt. That could increase U.S. corn and soybean meal exports later this year.
Wheat trade watching cold weather
March SRW wheat dropped 3.5 cents Friday to $5.38 to halt a three-day win streak that sent prices to two-month highs. Futures still added 8.5 cents for the week to record a third consecutive daily advance.
Wheat technicals strengthened this week after March SRW futures posted a third consecutive close above both the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (currently $5.2425 and $5.3050). The recent strength may prompt bulls to test the $5.45 area, near the late-November highs, and $5.50.
March HRW wheat eased 2.25 cents Friday to $5.4475, ending a three-day upturn that also took the market to two-month highs. March spring wheat declined 3.25 cents Friday to $5.7825, down from a two-month closing high the previous day.
Wheat futures extended overnight weakness despite signs of improvement in export demand.
On Thursday, USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales of 558,200 MT for the week ended January 22, down 10% from the previous week and more than double the average for the previous four weeks. Sales were at the high end of expectations and were led by Japan at 114,300 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) now total 788 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25 and almost 88% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Elsewhere, the European Commission on Thursday said it lowered its 2025-26 European Union wheat production estimate by 0.1% to 134.2 MMT (4.93 billion bushels). The commission also reduced its EU export forecast. Exports are now seen at 29.5 MMT, down 4.8% from a prior estimate. Ending stocks may expand to 13 MMT, up 11% from a previous estimate.
Weather remains a background story for grain markets including wheat, StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said.
Bitter cold temperatures over the past week over areas lacking sufficient snow cover put 15% to 20% of the U.S. winter wheat crop at risk of damage, “although we won’t likely know the scope of any possible damage for another four to six weeks,” Suderman said in a report.
Elsewhere, the Black Sea Region is also expected to see readings drop below -20° Fahrenheit in some areas in the coming days. Most central and northern areas have sufficient snow cover to protect the wheat, but southern areas do not.