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Most grains were in the green on Wednesday, thanks to persistent demand optimism that led to a broad range of technical buying. Soybeans were up more than 0.75%, thanks in part to red-hot soymeal gains. Corn prices trended 0.5% to 0.75% higher as well. Winter wheat prices failed to follow suit after another round of technical selling docked some contracts by more than 0.75%.
NOTE: Last week’s Agricultural Outlook Forum from USDA was another reminder that spring is just around the corner, and with that comes very important planting decisions. Click here for a quick planting intentions survey. Your answers will remain anonymous, and we will share the full results in the near future. You’ll also have a chance to win one of five $50 Amazon gift cards.
The Midwest and Plains will see very little rainfall through the weekend, while parts of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic could gather another 1” or more between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet, warm weather for the central U.S. between March 4 and March 10.
On Wall St., the Dow rose 282 points in afternoon trading to 49,456, with the tech sector once again leading the charge. Energy futures were also in the green, with Brent crude oil shifting 0.2% higher to stay above $70 per barrel. Gasoline futures were up more than 0.5%. The U.S. Dollar softened slightly.
Corn prices moved moderately higher midweek
Prices enjoyed a round of technical buying on Wednesday largely spurred by export and domestic demand optimism. Ethanol production remains solid, and analysts are hoping to see another bullish round of export sales data tomorrow morning. March futures added 2.75 cents to $4.3050, with May futures up 3.5 cents to $4.42.
If you are upset with how USDA has been handling data recently, you have a chance to voice your opinions. The collective concern has been loud enough that the agency is now opening a Request for Information (RFI) on “Opportunities, Challenges, and Emerging Areas in Statistical Data, Analysis, and Research at USDA.” In the RFI, USDA admits “there is always room for improvement to further enhance accuracy and usefulness.” Comments can be entered until April 9, 2026 – click here to learn more.
Domestic ethanol production retreated slightly lower in the week through February 20 after posting a daily average of 1.113 million barrels, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today. That’s still better than the prior five-week average of 1.083 million barrels per day.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn sales ranging between 35.4 million and 70.9 million bushels for the week ending February 19.
When it comes to alternative aviation fuels, crop-based biofuels have the most upside potential for growth, according to Tom Michels, government affairs director for United Airlines. “Aviation is highly resistant to electrification,” he said. “You’ll never have an aircraft powered by batteries that gets you over the Atlantic.” Farm Futures executive editor Pam Caraway explored how adopting new policies could help drive domestic demand for U.S. corn and soybeans – click here to learn more.
Taiwan purchased 2.6 million bushels of corn, likely sourced from the United States, in an international tender that closed earlier today. The grain is likely for shipment in March or April.
Corn settlements on Tuesday were for 473,374 contracts.
Soybean prices keep seeing bullish action
Another round of technical buying, likely spurred by spillover strength from soymeal and general trade optimism, led to gains exceeding 0.75% on Wednesday. March futures rose 8.75 cents to $11.4825, with May futures up 9.75 cents to $11.65.
The rest of the soy complex also pressed higher today. May soymeal futures jumped 2.45% higher, while May soyoil futures gained 0.28%.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show soybean sales ranging between 14.7 million and 36.7 million bushels in the week through February 19. Analysts also expect to see soymeal sales ranging between 250,000 and 500,000 metric tons last week, plus soyoil sales ranging between 10,000 and 16,000 MT.
According to Fallon Savage, Farm Credit’s senior vice president of corporate credit, farmers appear to be making some positive changes heading into to the 2026 season. “One of the trends that we’ve noticed is a stronger emphasis on risk management and just being more disciplined around risk over time,” Savage said. “The second piece that we’ve been highly encouraging, but also that customers have taken to heart, is increased liquidity on the balance sheet.” Savage shared more of her thoughts with Delta Farm Press senior staff writer Raney Rapp – click here to learn more.
Meantime, Lance Tarochione, an Illinois Asgrow agronomist, says soybean planting decisions can be tricky for farmers in the Land of Lincoln. Timing is everything. “As you move planting earlier than May 5 in soybeans, you gain between half a bushel and a bushel per day in yield benefit until you get into early April,” Tarochione said. However, planting soybeans early in unfavorable conditions might not be the best idea, either, he added. Click here to learn more.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, EU soybean imports during the 2025-26 marketing year have reached 298 million bushels through February 22. That’s a year-over-year decline of around 37.5 million bushels so far.
Soybean settlements on Tuesday were for 355,701 contracts.
Winter wheat prices can’t catch a break
Traders resumed a pattern of technical selling on Wednesday that led to variable losses. May Chicago SRW futures dropped 3.5 cents to $5.6975, with May Kansas City HRW futures down 2.75 cents to $5.6425.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show combined old and new crop wheat sales ranging between 9.2 million and 20.2 million bushels in the week through February 19.
Russian consultancy Sovecon estimates that Russia will export approximately 1.668 billion bushels in the 2025-26 marketing year. That is a modest reduction of around 11 million bushels versus its prior projection. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter.
CBOT wheat settlements on Tuesday were for 142,012 contracts.