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Crop damage in overseas countries such as China and Russia, coupled with possible planting delays due to wet weather across the central U.S. this past week, kept grain prices on a bit of a hot streak on Wednesday. Corn, soybean and wheat prices all shifted higher for the second consecutive session following a round of technical buying. Corn prices fared the best after moving more than 1% higher. Soybeans found gains of around 0.75%, with some wheat prices also up as much as 0.75%.
A system in a band stretching from central Kansas to western Tennessee could deliver another 1” to 2” additional rainfall between Thursday and Sunday, while other parts of the central U.S. should remain relatively dry through the weekend, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts drier-than-normal weather spreading across the Midwest and Plains between May 28 and June 3, with cooler-than-normal conditions likely for most of the Corn Belt during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow tumbled 705 points lower in afternoon trading to 41,971 after rising Treasury yields triggered a selloff. Traders are also nervous that the proposed U.S. budgetary bill would dramatically add to the nation’s deficit. Energy futures were also in the red, with crude oil shifting more than 0.75% lower this afternoon to $61 per barrel. Gasoline eased around 0.25% lower. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Tuesday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+4,000), soybeans (+1,000), soymeal (+3,000) and CBOT wheat (+8,000) contracts but were net sellers of soyoil (-1,000).
Corn prices enjoyed moderate midweek gains
Traders engaged in a round of technical buying on Wednesday that led to gains of 1.25% to 1.5%. A generally wet spring is expected to turn into hot, dry conditions in some major production states this summer. July futures rose 5.5 cents to $4.60, with September futures up 6.75 cents to $4.42.
Corn spot basis bids shifted 4 cents higher at an Indiana ethanol plant while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Wednesday.
Ethanol production pushed moderately higher after posting a daily average of 1.036 million barrels in the week through May 16, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today. Domestic ethanol stocks tightened by 2% this past week.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show combined old and new crop corn sales ranging between 29.5 million and 82.7 million bushels for the week ending May 15.
In today’s high-interest rate environment — and with trade uncertainty back in the headlines — waiting could cost more than you think,” according to Ryan Fogel, ag risk advisor with Advance Trading. Fogel focused on “opportunity cost” and walked through some relevant advice around that in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more.
Per the latest data from the European Commission, out Tuesday, EU corn imports during the 2024/25 are trending 8% above last year’s pace after reaching 696.4 million bushels through May 18. Ukraine, the United States, Brazil, Canada and Serbia were the top five suppliers.
Brazilian consultancy Agroconsult reported today that the country’s 2024/25 second corn crop could reach a record-breaking output of 4.445 billion bushels. That would be a year-over-year improvement of 10.5%, if realized.
Algeria issued an international tender to purchase 3.1 million bushels of animal feed corn from optional origins that closes today. The grain is for shipment in June.
Corn settlements on Tuesday were for 411,392 contracts.
Soybean prices found some moderate upside
A second consecutive round of technical buying on Wednesday led to moderate gains. July futures rose 8.75 cents to $10.6175, with August futures up 7.5 cents to $10.5775.
Soybean spot basis bids tracked 3 cents higher at an Illinois processor while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Wednesday.
Ahead of tomorrow morning’s export report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show combined old and new crop soybean sales ranging between 7.0 million and 25.7 million bushels in the week through May 15. Analysts also expect to see soymeal sales ranging between 100,000 and 450,000 metric tons, plus up to 32,000 MT of soyoil sales.
European Union soybean imports during the 2024/25 marketing year are trending 7% higher year-over-year after reaching 457.8 million bushels through May 18. The United States, Brazil, Ukraine, Canada and Togo were the top five suppliers. EU soymeal imports were 25% above last year’s pace after reaching 16.82 million metric tons over the same period.
Brazil’s Anec estimates that the country’s soybean exports will reach 533.5 million bushels in May, which is slightly above the group’s prior projection from a week ago. Anec also estimates that Brazilian soymeal exports will reach 2.36 million metric tons this month.
Soybean settlements on Tuesday were for 191,582 contracts.
Wheat prices touched one-month highs today
Prices pushed moderately higher following a round of technical buying and short-covering on Wednesday. July Chicago SRW futures added 2.25 cents to $5.4825, July Kansas City HRW futures gained 3.75 cents to $5.40, and July MGEX spring wheat futures rose 7 cents to $6.0475.
Prior to Thursday morning’s export report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show combined old and new crop wheat sales ranging between 3.7 million and 29.4 million bushels in the week through May 15.
European Union soft wheat exports during the 2024/25 marketing year are trending 34% below the prior year’s pace after reaching 677.9 million bushels through May 18. Morocco, Nigeria, Algeria, the United Kingdom and Egypt were the top five destinations.
Russian consultancy Sovecon raised its estimates for the country’s 2025 wheat production to 2.976 billion bushels. That would still be modestly below last season’s output, if realized. Russia is the world’s top wheat exporter.
And finally, a deep dive into the 2025 Rabobank BBQ Index shows tariffs are a minor player, but food production costs and geopolitics weigh heavily on what’s happening between the farm and the table. We took a deep dive into the data – click here to learn more.
CBOT wheat settlements on Tuesday were for 135,279 contracts.