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Farmers sometimes cross their fingers in hopes of a Christmas rally. And sometimes, they get their wish – such as in 2020, 2021 and 2022. But more bearish sentiment didn’t allow a repeat in 2023 and 2024. Will the Grinch return this year? So far, so good, considering a positive Monday session. Corn and soybeans each tested modest to moderate gains in the session, while winter wheat futures firmed more than 1% higher. A broad set of other commodities (soymeal, soyoil, rice, canola, etc.) was also in the green to start the week.
Some light rains are possible in parts of the eastern Corn Belt and Ohio River Valley over the next several days, but few fields are likely to gather more than 0.25” between Tuesday and Friday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for much of the central U.S. between December 29 and January 4, with warmer-than-normal conditions likely for the Midwest and Plains during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow tracked 249 points higher in afternoon trading to 48,384 as investors remain skeptical about some possible overvaluations in the tech industry. Energy futures jumped substantially higher, with Brent crude oil climbing more than 2.5% higher to $62 per barrel. Gasoline futures rose almost 2%. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices scored some demand upside
Another solid round of export inspections (current) and export sales (for the week ending December 4) helped generate a round of technical buying to kick off a holiday-shortened week. March futures added 3.25 cents to $4.47, with May futures up 3 cents to $4.5450.
Corn export inspections improved to 68.7 million bushels last week. That was also a bit toward the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 39.4 million and 86.6 million bushels. South Korea was the No. 1 destination, with 16.0 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are noticeably above last year’s pace after reaching 955.4 million bushels.
Prairie Farmer editor Holly Spangler argues that there are two things you probably won’t hear on a farm. “That took less time than I expected,” she said. “[Also], everything went according to plan. Still, the possibility that things can go right on the farm certainly exists.” Spangler serves up four reasons to be optimistic about agriculture in her latest My Generation column – click here to learn more.
Used farm equipment prices remain intensely high, according to Indiana farmer Kyle Stackhouse. “Trailers have been pretty hot on farm auctions lately,” he noted. “This week we saw a three-year-old trailer sell for just a few thousand dollars less than a new one.” Stackhouse also shared an adventure of tearing apart and replacing an auger in his latest Between the Fencerows column – click here to learn more.
Brazil’s Safras & Mercado estimates that the country’s total corn production in 2025-26 could reach 5.623 billion bushels, which was slightly lower than its prior projection. Of the total, the first corn crop is expected to reach 998 million bushels, with the remainder of 4.007 billion bushels accounted for by the second corn crop.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 200,825 contracts.
Soybean prices benefited from broad technical buying
Spillover support from a wide set of other commodities helped prices move higher on Monday, as did another flash sale to China that was announced this morning. January futures added 4 cents to $10.5325, with March futures up 5.5 cents to $10.65.
The rest of the soy complex also shifted higher. January soymeal futures improved 0.34%, while January soyoil futures climbed 1.36% higher.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 14.5 million bushels of soybeans to China. Of the total, 12.1 million bushels are for delivery during the 2025-26 marketing year, which began September 1, with the remaining 2.4 million bushels for delivery in 2026-27.
Soybean export inspections made it to 32.0 million bushels last week. That was slightly on the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 29.4 million and 36.7 million bushels. China was the No. 1 destination, with 12.0 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are substantially (-46%) below last year’s pace after reaching 536.0 million bushels.
Brazilian consultancy AgRural is bullish on the country’s 2025-26 soybean production potential, which received an upward revision of 6.625 billion bushels – a new record, if realized. That would also be a 16.7% improvement over the country’s recently harvested 2024-25 soybean crop. Brazil is both the world’s No. 1 soybean producer and exporter.
Meantime, Brazil and Argentina accounted for 93.9% of all Chinese soybean imports during the month of November, with 280.3 million bushels of sales between those two countries. Of that total 214.9 million bushels (76.7%) came from Brazil, with 65.4 million bushels (23.3%) sourced from Argentina.
Soybean settlements on Friday were for 231,457 contracts.
Winter wheat prices found bullish optimism
Export inspections last week outpaced analysts' expectations, which helped generate some technical buying on Monday. Spillover support from a broad set of other commodities stirred up some additional tailwinds today. March Chicago SRW futures gained 5.75 cents to $5.1550, with March Kansas City HRW futures rising 6 cents higher to $5.2125.
Wheat export inspections outperformed analyst expectations after reaching 23.1 million bushels last week. That was above all trade guesses, which ranged between 7.3 million and 14.7 million bushels. Japan was the No. 1 destination, with 2.7 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2025-26 marketing year are still 23% better than last year’s pace after reaching 542.1 million bushels.
Algeria issued a tender to purchase 1.8 million bushels of durum wheat from optional origins that closes on Tuesday. The grain is for shipment in February or March, depending on where it is sourced. Algeria routinely purchases more grain than the nominal amount listed.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 106,970 contracts.