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Aside from a few light showers in Indiana and Ohio, the Corn Belt should remain dry between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, freeing up many more fields for harvest.
Later this month, NOAA’s new eight to 14-day outlook calls for seasonally wet conditions for most areas west of the Mississippi River for Oct. 23-29, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the Midwest and Plains.
On Wall Street, the Dow tilted 292 points lower in afternoon trading to 51,885, and the Nasdaq was slashed by more than 2% after investors continued to rotate out of AI stocks. Energy futures spiked following recent attacks in the Middle East, with Brent crude oil climbing 3.75% higher this afternoon to close in on $110 per barrel. Gasoline futures were up almost 2%. The U.S. dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices sink lower on harvest pressure
Drier weather forecasts for the central U.S. should keep combines rolling, giving farmers a chance to catch up after getting rained out earlier this month. That helped generate a pattern of technical selling that led to moderate losses on Friday. December futures fell 3.75 cents to $4.7425, with March futures down 4.5 cents to $4.8650.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5 million bushels of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1.
Corn export sales reached 44.2 million bushels in the week through Oct. 8, which was a week-over-week bounce of 46% and a 42% improvement above the prior four-week average. That was also on the very high end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 23.6 million and 47.2 million bushels.
Corn export shipments slipped 18% below the prior four-week average, with 53.6 million bushels. Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Guatemala and Italy were the top five destinations.
Last Friday’s World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates report stopped traders dead in their tracks after estimating corn yields at 181.2 bushels per acre. But despite an initial drop in grain prices, many are still skeptical of the agency’s assessment. Multiple industry experts discussed this and much more in the latest edition of Top Tips — click here to see what they said, along with actionable items you may want to consider.
Brazil’s Conab estimates that the country’s total corn production will reach 5.827 billion bushels in the 2026-27 season. That is more than 350 million bushels above USDA’s latest projection. Much of the difference can be attributed to a 10.7% increase in acreage, with the first corn crop accounting for the bulk of this increase.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 450,653 contracts.
Soybean prices face minor downside pressure
Traders shrugged off two more large sales announced this morning (one to China, one to unknown destinations), leaving prices slightly in the red heading into the weekend. January and March futures each dropped 2 cents to settle at $12.7575 and $12.8425, respectively.
The rest of the soy complex also trended lower. December soymeal futures were down 0.75%, while December soy oil futures faced fractional cuts.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 20.5 million bushels of soybeans to China and 8.7 million bushels of soybeans to unknown destinations. Both sales are for delivery during the 2026-27 marketing year, which began Sept. 1.
Soybean exports in the week through Oct. 8 reached 21.1 million bushels, which was 5% above the prior week’s tally but still 40% below the prior four-week average. That was also on the very low end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 18.4 million and 44.1 million bushels.
Soybean export shipments were more robust at 42.4 million bushels. That was still 16% below the prior week’s volume but 23% ahead of the prior four-week average. China, Mexico, Japan, Vietnam and Egypt were the top five destinations.
So far this year, crude oil prices have seen wild swings between $70 and $120 per barrel, said Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Total Farm Marketing.
“Current potential technical price projections are poised to either rally up to the 2008 price highs near $150 a barrel or sink lower. Technical price objectives potentially hint at values closer to $50 a barrel, levels that have not been seen since 2021,” she said.
Blohm discussed what this might mean from a marketing perspective in today’s Ag Marketing IQ blog — click here to learn more.
Brazil’s Conab estimates that the country’s 2026-27 soybean production will only reach 6.673 billion bushels, falling more than 161 million bushels short of USDA’s latest projection of 6.834 billion bushels. Conab expects plantings to rise 1.43% to 121.84 million acres, which would be the smallest increase since the 2011-12 season, if realized.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 372,037 contracts.
Winter wheat prices continue to erode lower
Traders disregarded a spike in crude oil prices, with a tepid round of export sales serving as a fresh reminder that demand remains sluggish amid a glut of domestic and global supplies. December Chicago soft red winter futures fell 9.5 cents to $6.6050, with December Kansas City hard red winter futures down 9 cents to $7.04.
Wheat exports made it to 11.8 million bushels for the week ending Oct. 8, which was a 29% week-over-week decline and eased 4% below the prior four-week average. That was also on the very low end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 11 million and 22 million bushels.
Wheat export shipments were very similar at 11.9 million bushels. That was 9% lower than the prior four-week average. South Korea, Mexico, Sri Lanka, Japan and El Salvador were the top five destinations.
And finally, what happens when economic forecasts are wrong? At the start of 2026, David Kohl, professor emeritus with Virginia Tech University, predicted two to three interest rate cuts this year.
“However, the conflict in the Middle East ignited inflation. That, combined with loose monetary policy and deficit spending, pushed the Federal Reserve to reverse course,” he said. Kohl separated the “two economies” — the general economy and consumer spending — and discussed the potential implications on land values in his latest commentary. Click here to learn more.
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 225,503 contracts.