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President Trump’s erratic tariff policies have caused plenty of chaos on Wall St. Grain prices have also been affected, although to a relatively lesser degree. Traders likely welcomed a day like today, therefore, with prices only dialing in minor moves. Corn prices were unchanged, in fact. Soybeans slid slightly lower, while wheat prices closed with lightly mixed results.
Two systems – one in the Southern Plains and one in the Northern Plains – could deliver another 1” or more rainfall to some fields in those areas between Saturday and Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally warm, dry weather for a large portion of the Corn Belt between May 2 and May 8.
On Wall St., the Dow eased 37 points lower in afternoon trading to 40,055 but is still on pace for a weekly gain of around 2% as the markets hope to recover from abundant volatility over the past several weeks. Energy futures shifted higher, with crude oil up almost 0.5% this afternoon to move back above $63 per barrel. Gasoline moved around 0.75% higher. The U.S. Dollar firmed slightly.
On Thursday, commodity funds were net buyers of corn (+6,500), soybeans (+2,000) and soyoil (+7,000) contracts but were net sellers of soymeal (-2,500). Funds were roughly even when trading CBOT wheat contracts yesterday.
Corn prices didn’t move the needle … at all
Prices held steady as traders await additional supply and demand crew, while also shaking off a flash sale to Mexico that USDA announced this morning. May and July futures remained unchanged, at $4.7725 and $4.84, respectively.
Corn spot basis bids were steady to firm after trending 1 to 4 cents higher across four Midwestern locations on Friday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 9.3 million bushels of corn to Mexico. A little over half of that total is for delivery during the current marketing year, with the remainder for delivery in 2025/26.
If overly hot, dry weather shows up later this summer, could that be enough to trump record corn plantings? That’s a question Naomi Blohm, senior market adviser with Stewart Peterson, found herself asking. “History suggests that a summer corn price rally is still a strong possibility,” she notes. “In fact, the average summer rally for December corn futures over the past seventeen years is 91 cents!” Blohm assembled a chart that shows four potential yield and ending stock scenarios in yesterday’s Ag Marketing IQ blog – click here to learn more. “Weather still matters!” she asserts.
French farm office FranceAgriMer reports that 50% of the country’s 2025 corn crop had been planted through April 21. That’s up 39% from a week ago and moderately ahead of the prior five-year average of 42%.
South Korea purchased 2.4 million bushels of food-standard (non GMO) corn in a tender that closed earlier this week. The grain is for arrival around August 10.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 432,253 contracts.
Soybean prices faced light technical selling
Traders engaged in a bit of profit-taking after prices reached two-month highs earlier this week. Brazil’s record-breaking harvest also continues to loom in the background. May futures dropped 3.25 cents to $10.4975, with July futures down 2.75 cents to $10.5925.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. July soymeal futures tracked more than 0.5% higher, while July soyoil futures eroded 0.75% lower.
Soybean spot basis bids trended 2 cents higher at an Ohio elevator and a penny higher at an Illinois river terminal while holding steady elsewhere across the central U.S. on Friday.
Earlier this week, USDA announced it will be releasing $340.6 million in disaster assistance for farmers, ranchers and rural communities negatively impacted by recent natural disasters. “One of our key priorities here at the USDA is to realign the entire agency and department around putting farmers and ranchers in our ag community first,” according to U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. “What that means is moving these funds that are so desperately needed in a time of uncertainty for many of you.” Click here to learn more.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 300,736 contracts.
Wheat prices turned in lightly mixed results
Uneven technical moving failed to move the needle much in either direction heading into the weekend. July Chicago SRW futures inched 0.25 cents higher to $5.4475, July Kansas City HRW futures held steady at $5.5075, and July MGEX spring wheat futures eased 1.25 cents lower to $6.0650.
Ukrainian farmers are busy planting their spring row crops, sowing more than 4.9 million acres so far. That’s 17% below last year’s pace so far, attributed partly to unusually cold weather earlier this month. Corn, spring wheat, spring barley, peas and oats were the primary crops, per the country’s agriculture ministry.
French farm office FranceAgriMer reduced its quality ratings for the 2024/25 soft wheat crop by a point, with 74% now in good-to-excellent condition through April 21. That’s still well above year-ago ratings of 63%, however. France is Europe’s top grain producer.
Syria has yet to make any purchases in its international tender to purchase 3.7 million bushels of soft milling wheat that closed earlier this week. If any purchases are made, the grain will be for shipment within 45 days of signing a contract.
And finally, did you miss some news this week? We’ve got you covered with a roundup of the industry’s top headlines. Today’s edition includes a look at when to plant thin soybean stands, the importance of off-farm income and more. Click here to get started.
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 106,784 contracts.