Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!
With the August WASDE report now firmly in the rearview mirror, traders can return to watching a bevy of other market factors more closely. That includes ongoing geopolitical strife in the Black Sea region, with a refusal for a fresh truce driving wheat prices higher on Friday. And drought relief in the Midwest over the past several weeks has given way to flooding concerns following heavy rains in some areas earlier this week, which helped keep corn prices firm today. Soybeans also grabbed moderate gains as China continues to make large purchases.
A round of rains moving through central Iowa through Ohio could deliver another 1” to 2” between Saturday and next Tuesday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Other parts of the Corn Belt may see little to no additional moisture during this time. Later this month, some drier-than-normal conditions will build across the upper Midwest between August 21 and August 27, with prevalently warmer-than-normal temperatures likely throughout the central U.S.
On Wall St., the Dow shifted 58 points lower in afternoon trading to 53,781 and is headed for weekly losses of around 0.6%, a trend one CEO told CNBC is indicative of “the start of … post-earnings flattening out trade.” Energy futures resumed moving higher, with Brent crude oil up around 1.5% this afternoon to move past $88 per barrel. Gasoline futures were also up around 1.5% this afternoon. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices nabbed double-digit gains in Friday’s session
Some flooding in parts of the Corn Belt, coupled with spillover support from red-hot winter wheat prices, was enough to trigger a round of technical buying that pushed most contracts more than 2% higher on Friday. September futures rose 11 cents to $4.59, with December futures up 11.25 cents to $4.8325.
“If your farm has multiple heirs, there’s a number every family needs to know,” noted Mike Downey, manager of succession planning with Uncommon Farms. “I call it your farm’s transition number — what it will cost the successor to buy out the siblings and keep farming or keep the farm in the family.” Downey walks through a specific example to help drive this point home in his latest More Than Dirt column – click here to learn more.
At the same time, farmers and ranchers can be stereotypically stubborn when it comes to retirement. In fact, the average age of U.S. farmers is 60 years old, with more than two-thirds over the age of 54. “It’s important to talk to your tax preparer when setting up and making contributions to a retirement account. Retirement plans can be invested in several different vehicles tied to equity markets, bond markets, simple interest-bearing accounts or whatever is comfortable for the investor,” according to Jason Frewell, a North Dakota Farm Management Education Program instructor, who shares relevant advice on the matter. Click here to learn more.
Ahead of the 2026 Farm Progress Show, held in Boone, Iowa, in early September, you may want to learn more about two free weather tools – the Iowa Environmental Mesonet and the CoCoRaHS Network. Both will be part of the Iowa State University exhibit at that event. Click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Thursday were for 529,993 contracts.
Soybean prices made moderate end-of-week inroads
Spillover strength from other commodities and general bullish sentiment over recent Chinese purchases kept prices squarely in the green on Friday. September futures rose 11.75 cents to $11.7775, with November futures up 10.25 cents to $11.9250. January ’27 futures and farther-out contracts are back above the $12 per bushel benchmark for now.
The rest of the soy complex also found Friday gains. September soymeal futures tracked nearly 1% higher, as did September soyoil futures.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5.0 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026-27 marketing year, which begins September 1.
The National Oilseed Processors Association will release its next monthly report next Monday, and analysts expect the group to show a July soy crush totaling 221.5 million bushels. That would be a year-over-year increase of 25 million bushels, if realized. Analysts also think NOPA will show soyoil stocks at 1.454 billion pounds through July 31.
Chinese state stockpiler Sinograin plans to auction off another 13.2 million bushels of its imported soybean reserves next Wednesday. Sinograin has held several similar auctions earlier this month, which some have speculated is a move to free up space for future U.S. purchases.
Soybean settlements on Thursday were for 194,404 contracts.
Winter wheat prices pulled in massive gains
With Russia’s war in Ukraine dragging on since early 2022, the country faces a “growing manpower headache,” according to reporting by the Guardian. That fatigue is especially ill-timed for agricultural opportunities in the Black Sea region as fighting has intensified over the past week, and with a maritime blockade bottling up near-term exports for Ukrainian farmers. That led to steep gains for U.S. winter wheat prices on Friday, with September Chicago SRW futures jumping 22 cents to $6.7475 and September Kansas City HRW futures climbing 33.75 cents to $7.5425.
The combination of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and El Nino should eventually bring relief to the severe western wheat drought affecting areas from Colorado to Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas – but the timing of when these climate patterns strengthen will determine whether conditions worsen before they improve, according to recent analysis by Climatelligence. In particular, if these phenomena don’t become “super strong” until after November or December, lingering drought in the Southern Plains could lead to fall planting delays, intensify current drought conditions and further support the bull market in wheat prices.
Taiwan purchased 3.5 million bushels of milling wheat from the United States in a tender that closed earlier today. These purchases are typically shipped 30 to 60 days following the purchase date.
And finally, a little fun diversion for your Friday afternoon. Two of my colleagues, Ava Splear and Allison Lynch, attended the 2026 Ag Media Summit in St. Louis. While most of this trek was filled with valuable professional development opportunities for them, they also did a bit of a side quest to Twisted Ranch, an area restaurant. While there, they sampled all 33 flavors of ranch dressing on offer – yes, really. Click here to learn about their wild adventure (and ranch rankings).
CBOT wheat settlements on Thursday were for 311,197 contracts.