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USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from USDA doesn’t typically trigger large changes in grain prices. That was true again – at least for corn and soybeans, which each dialed in modest changes following the report. Corn futures shifted slightly lower, while soybean futures tested modest gains. Winter wheat prices weren’t so fortunate, meantime, after ending stocks increased to the highest levels since 2019-20. That left some contracts down more than 1% today.
A band of wet weather stretching from the Southern Plains through northern Illinois could deliver another 1” or more to some fields between Friday and Monday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet weather for a good part of the Corn Belt between April 16 and April 22, with warmer-than-normal temperatures likely for the Midwest and Plains during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow shifted 259 points higher in afternoon trading to 48,168 on general optimism that the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran will hold. Energy futures pushed higher, with Brent crude oil up over 2% this afternoon to $96 per barrel. Gasoline futures tested fractional gains. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
Corn prices failed to protect overnight gains
Prices tested mild gains overnight before eroding steadily throughout Thursday’s session after traders returned to a pattern of technical selling. July futures dropped 3 cents to $4.55, with September futures down 2.5 cents to $4.5925.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 5.4 million bushels of corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2025-26 marketing year, which began September 1.
In today’s WASDE report, corn ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year held steady, at 2.127 billion bushels. Analysts were expecting to see a fractional increase after offering an average trade guess of 2.128 billion bushels ahead of today’s report. Disappearance through the first six months of this marketing year totaled 9.6 billion bushels, which was 1.0 billion higher compared to year-ago trends. USDA also increased the season-average farm price by 5 cents to $4.15 per bushel, citing “reported prices to date.”
Corn exports in the week through April 2 saw 53.6 million bushels in old crop sales plus another 449,000 bushels in new crop sales for a total tally of 54.0 million bushels. Old crop sales were 8% better than the prior four-week average, and total sales were toward the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 29.5 million and 66.9 million bushels. Volume for the 2025-26 marketing year are trending 30% above last year’s pace so far.
Corn export shipments reached 72.0 million bushels last week, which was down 8% week-over-week but 3% above the prior four-week average. Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea and Ireland were the top five destinations.
“The world breathed a sigh of relief Tuesday night in response to news that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a two-week ceasefire,” noted Farm Progress policy editor Joshua Baethge. “Included in the deal was a commitment from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That doesn’t mean an immediate return to normal fertilizer shipments.” Baethge recently unpacked the ongoing situation – click here to learn more.
Corn settlements on Wednesday were for 606,208 contracts.
Soybean prices tested modest gains today
Prices survived a somewhat choppy session today, moving around 0.25% higher in the ensuing round of technical buying. USDA’s data ended up fairly neutral after the agency lowered export estimates but raised crush estimates by the same amount, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 350 million bushels (more on this below). May futures added 3.25 cents to $11.6525, with July futures up 3 cents to $11.81.
The rest of the soy complex also tracked higher today. May soymeal futures found gains exceeding 1%, while May soymeal futures settled with gains of almost 0.5%.
USDA’s April outlook for soybeans included higher crush, lower exports and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean crush improved by 35 million bushels to 2.61 billion (a record for the fifth consecutive year). That was completely offset by a 35-million-bushel reduction in exports to 1.54 billion, which USDA attributed to higher South American shipments. All told, ending stocks held steady, at 350 million bushels. USDA also upped its season-average farm price by a dime to $10.30 per bushel.
Soybean export sales totaled 10.9 million bushels last week, which faded 34% below the prior four-week average. That was also on the lower end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 7.3 million and 22.0 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year remain 18% below last year’s pace so far.
Soybean export shipments were more robust, with 23.4 million bushels, but that was still 35% below the prior four-week average. China, Mexico, Indonesia, Japan and Colombia were the top five destinations.
Soybean settlements on Wednesday were for 277,069 contracts.
Winter wheat prices undermined by large supplies
USDA’s WASDE report was just another reminder that there are ample domestic and global stockpiles. World ending stocks were particularly bearish after jumping moderately higher from March. Today, July Chicago SRW and Kansas City HRW futures each lost 6.25 cents to settle at $5.85 and $6.0575, respectively.
USDA made no changes to its 2025-26 wheat export estimates, staying at 900 million, although the agency did note some offsetting by-class revisions. Ending stocks increased to 938 million bushels. That’s up 10% year-over-year and is the highest volume since 2019-20. The agency did raise its season-average farm price by a nickel to $5.00 per bushel, however.
Wheat exports saw 6.0 million bushels in old crop sales and 3.3 million bushels in new crop sales for a total volume of 9.3 million bushels last week. Old crop sales were up noticeably week-over-week, and total sales were near the middle of trade guesses, which ranged between 5.5 million and 14.7 million bushels. Cumulative sales for the 2025-26 marketing year are tracking 14% ahead of last year’s pace so far.
Wheat export shipments came in at 13.6 million bushels last week, which was 4% below the prior four-week average. Mexico, South Korea, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic and Honduras were the top five destinations.
CBOT wheat settlements on Wednesday were for 204,646 contracts.