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Grain prices were mixed but mostly higher on Wednesday as traders awaited the next round of export sales data from USDA (out first thing tomorrow) and speculated whether recent rains would lead to some planting delays after a faster-than-normal start to the 2026 season. Winter wheat prices climbed to the highest levels in nearly two years earlier this week before succumbing to some technical selling and profit-taking today.
Rainy weather through the weekend will largely be relegated to a band stretching from the Southern Plains through the southeastern U.S., delivering 1” to 3” between Thursday and Sunday, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. That may allow for fields farther north to dry out and keep planting delays at bay. Later on, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts drier-than-normal conditions for the Northern Plains and upper Midwest between May 6 and May 12, with cooler-than-normal temperatures likely for the eastern half of the country during this time.
On Wall St., the Dow slumped 392 points lower in afternoon trading to 48,749 on rising oil prices amid a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, and after the Federal Reserve opted not to change interest rates in April. Energy futures jumped noticeably higher, with Brent crude oil shooting up 6% this afternoon to $110 per barrel. Gasoline futures rose 4.75%. The U.S. Dollar firmed moderately.
Corn prices survived a choppy session
Strong export pace was enough to keep prices in the green today, although drier weather across the Midwest later this week should keep planters rolling for the most part, which limited gains today. July futures added 2.25 cents to $4.7775, with September futures up 2.5 cents to $4.83. December futures are extremely close ot the $5 per bushel benchmark after settling at $4.9775.
Domestic ethanol production fell for the second straight week in the week through April 24 after posting a daily average of 1.009 million barrels, per the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, out earlier today. That was also the lowest weekly total since late January after barely staying above the 1-million-barrel-per-day benchmark. Ethanol supplies faded 4% lower this past week.
Meantime, the Renewable Fuels Association is urging growers to call their representatives to support HR 1346, which would allow year-round E15 sales. “It’s a practical way to back U.S. agriculture while delivering value across the entire supply chain,” the group wrote in a post on X.com earlier today. “Year-round access would contribute $25.8 billion to GDP, generate $10.3 billion in income, and support more than 128,000 jobs nationwide.”
Corn export sales have held a commanding 28% year-over-year lead in the 2025-26 marketing year so far, including sales totaling 69.1 million bushels two weeks ago. USDA will release updated data on Thursday morning.
Global food prices are more subject to inflation than they have been in a long time after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz halted 55% to 60% of Middle East urea shipments. “The longer this situation lasts, the greater the risk that producers are forced to shut down because storage fills up and there is simply nowhere left to put the product,” said Pranshi Goyal, a senior analyst at CRU. “If that happens, the disruption becomes even more severe, as nitrogen plant restarts are not a switch.” Bloomberg did some recent reporting on the matter – click here to learn more.
Various farmer surveys in the ag industries can inform on potential planting trends for the upcoming 2026 season. The latest from Farmer’s Keeper indicates growers may plant substantially fewer corn acres this year. “Since March 1, 21% of farmers said they plan to decrease their corn acres,” according to CEO Nick Tsiolis, highlighting the impact of soaring fertilizer prices, which have spiked by as much as 45% since the onset of the Iran war.” Tsiolis shared more of his thoughts in the latest Ag Marketing IQ In Depth video – click here to learn more.
Taiwan purchased 2.6 million bushels of corn from the United States in a tender that closed earlier today. The grain is likely for shipment in June or July.
Corn settlements on Tuesday were for 668,091 contracts.
Soybean prices made moderate midweek strides
Prices captured gains mostly ranging between 0.5% and 0.75% on Wednesday following a round of technical buying. July futures rose 7.75 cents to $11.97, with August futures up 6.5 cents to $11.8975.
The rest of the soy complex was mixed. July soymeal futures eroded 1.1% lower, while July soyoil futures rose nearly 2.25% higher.
As ongoing trade negotiations continue amid the fractured relationship between the U.S. and China, there is a lingering question for farmers – can you get any of that tariff money back? A new portal to request tariff relief is incoming from the Trump administration. Unfortunately for farmers, they are not the direct target this time around. But there are still some important questions you should be asking – click here to learn more.
Brazil’s Anec lowered its expectations for the country’s April soybean exports by 19.1 million bushels after offering a new projection of 582.8 million bushels.
Soybean settlements on Tuesday were for 338,708 contracts.
Winter wheat rally hit a speed bump
Prices settled with mixed results after testing moderate gains overnight after traders engaged in some technical selling and profit-taking on Wednesday. July Chicago SRW futures fell 4.75 cents to $6.53, while July Kansas City HRW futures added 2.5 cents to $7.0475.
The European Commission reported that EU soft wheat exports during the 2025-26 marketing year have reached 708.3 million bushels through April 24. That is a year-over-year increase of 43.3 million bushels so far.
And finally, the Farm Service Agency continues to move more operations online, which could have some benefits for all involved. That includes entering your paperwork from your computer or phone, eliminating a trip into town. It also takes some of the paperwork burden off FSA staff. “That’s where we’re headed,” said Steve Brown, Indiana FSA state director. “We want to help get our producers to do certain program areas and responsibilities online.” Allison Lynch with sister publication Indiana Prairie Farmer took a closer look at these trends – click here to learn more.
CBOT wheat settlements on Tuesday were for 254,936 contracts.