I recently read an interesting quote. The topic was political, but I thought the comment applied equally well to grain producers. Referring to a group that was resistant to compromise and change, a diplomat said: “They never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity.”
I’m looking at November soybean futures close to $11.50 per bushel. I also note that December ’26 corn futures are flirting with the $5-per-bushel mark. These are price levels that will meet or exceed production costs for many producers in the Corn Belt. It makes me wonder how many people will miss this opportunity.
Could prices go even higher in the months ahead? Of course they could. I can come up with several reasons why corn and soybean prices could go higher. An escalation in the war is one reason. The ever-present possibility of drought is another reason. Add to the list the possibility of mending trade relations with China. How about a shocking crop or stocks report? And let’s not forget the chance of a world event that isn’t even on our radar. The reasons are there, and they help explain why the current opportunity is staring us in the face.
Could prices trend lower in the months ahead? Of course they could. South America is harvesting another big crop. The war may be settled while trade issues with China remain. What if there is no drought and we harvest another bumper crop? Shocking crop reports can be bearish, too, as can world events that are not on our radar.
With November ’26 soybean prices hanging around $11.50 per bushel, this price is 75 cents better than your best new-crop pricing opportunity in calendar-year 2025. It’s not far from the best pricing opportunity offered in the first half of calendar-year 2024, when prices were fading from the high levels enjoyed from 2021-23. I take no pleasure from seeing the glass half empty, but the November ’25 and November ’24 new-crop soybean contracts established lows below $10 per bushel. November ’26 futures near $11.50 per bushel is an opportunity to start pricing your 2026 crop.
At $4.90 per bushel, December ’26 corn has matched your best pricing opportunity in calendar-year 2025. At the risk of being the guy who removes the punch bowl from the party, I remind you that both the December ’25 and December ’24 contracts established lows below $4 per bushel. I think it’s also time to price some 2026 corn.
Which pricing tool should you use for these initial sales? My bias is to keep it simple with early sales. Forward-contract, hedge-to-arrive or selling futures through your broker seems like the place to start. Then hope like heck you’re wrong, so you can make later sales at higher prices.
Could new-crop pricing opportunities improve by late spring or summer? Of course they could, but are you under the illusion that you can find the highest price in the market? Selling the highest price is an unrealistic goal. Your goal is to establish a good average price for your product. I think the current market is a good opportunity to start establishing a good average price. Will you miss the opportunity?