The cold winds of winter will soon be replaced by sunny days fit for planting. If the temperature of the fertilizer market changes at all, expect it to get hotter.
"Unfortunately, it's really hard to see short-term relief on these prices," says Josh Linville, vice president for fertilizer at StoneX. On this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Linville highlights the urgency for farmers to prepare for the upcoming planting season.
"We're 30 days out from phosphate, potash and anhydrous application," Linville says, telling farmers something they already know – but knowing those same folks may be putting off fertilizer purchases. Though a perennial concern for farmers, high fertilizer prices are particularly troubling this year following a financially strapped 2025 and continued low commodity prices.
With global factors like China's export restrictions, high European gas costs, and geopolitical tensions driving up costs, any prospects for changing fertilizer prices aren’t in farmers’ favor. Linville is particularly concerned about the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which could disrupt exports from three of the world’s top 10 urea suppliers.
“Nitrogen prices are unlikely to drop significantly, with China restricting urea exports until August and European production still operating at 75% due to high gas costs,” Linville says.
Phosphate prices are similarly impacted, with China’s reduced exports creating additional strain. “China is typically the world’s biggest exporter, but last year they barely exported over five million tons, and this year they’re not exporting until August,” Linville notes. Potash, however, remains relatively well-priced compared to other inputs.
Linville advises farmers to focus on what they can control, such as proactive planning and market engagement. "We can't change the markets,” he says. “But volatility can also create a lot of opportunity.”
Linville recommends placing orders in advance to capitalize on fleeting price opportunities.
"Get those orders in, have that conversation with the broker ahead of time," Linville says, recognizing, of course, that such moves are more viable for 2027 than for this spring. Buying fertilizer in layers, similar to grain marketing, is one of his suggestions for managing input costs.
To hear more detail and depth on the fertilizer markets, watch this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ at FarmFutures.com.