The grain and oilseed complex is sending both bullish and bearish signals as we move deeper into spring. From a record-pace soybean planting season to deteriorating hard red winter wheat conditions in the Southern Plains, market participants have no shortage of variables to monitor.
Here is where things stand across the corn, soybean and wheat markets as we close out April.
Corn: The Argentine Wild Card
U.S. corn planting is off to a solid start. Most central and eastern Corn Belt states are ahead of pace, and the Southern U.S. and Delta regions are significantly advanced, though some areas there could use additional precipitation. Some started getting that over the weekend. Others hope to see rain this week.
The more consequential fundamental story, however, is unfolding in Argentina. While USDA’s most recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report held Argentine corn production at 52 million metric tons, a growing number of private analysts and respected trade sources have pushed their estimates to 60 MMT or above. Perhaps most telling, USDA’s own agricultural attaché in Buenos Aires released an updated estimate last week of 61 MMT, a figure that is nearly 20% above the official WASDE number. It seems reasonable to expect USDA will close some of that gap in coming reports.
The competitive implications for U.S. exports are significant. Historical data shows that Argentina exports approximately 66% of its corn production in a normal year, rising to roughly 68% in years with large production increases. At production levels above 60 MMT, Argentine corn exports become a direct competitive threat to U.S. export business, and the timing is problematic. Argentine exports are most active from June through September, which squarely overlaps with U.S. old-crop export business and new-crop sales from the Southern U.S. This is a dynamic worth watching carefully as the marketing year progresses.
Soybeans: Export headwinds loom
Soybean planting progress is running at a record pace for this time of year, with 12% of the crop in the ground compared to the five-year average of just 5%. Meanwhile, crush margins remain exceptionally strong, with rough calculations from a Minnesota processor pegging spot crush margins near $5 per bushel, a level that continues to support domestic demand.
The longer-term concern on soybeans remains the export picture. U.S. beans are currently the least competitive origin on an FOB basis versus South American supplies through September. The trade tensions context is important here: U.S. soybean arrivals in China surpassed Brazilian volumes only once in the past year, in March, while Brazil historically dominates that trade from April through October. Over the past five years, Brazil and the U.S. have accounted for approximately 65% and 29% of China’s total soybean imports, respectively. The current tariff environment has intensified the competitive disadvantage for U.S. exporters and could weigh meaningfully on new-crop export projections.
Wheat: Drought taking a toll on HRW
The wheat complex tells a bifurcated story. Hard red winter conditions in eastern Kansas, eastern Colorado and West Texas have deteriorated sharply. Reports of 30% to 40% abandonment rates are circulating in those areas, and the five largest HRW-producing states combined — Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Nebraska — averaged under 14% good to excellent in crop ratings last week, with poor to very poor ratings approaching 50%. The Advance Trading Inc. model now places total U.S. all-winter wheat production at 1.207 billion bushels, down 19 million from last week, with HRW specifically declining to 0.621 billion bushels from 0.640 two weeks ago.
Eastern Kansas is a notable exception, with meaningfully better crop prospects than the western portions of the state. Near-term Southern Plains precipitation is in the forecast for this week, which bears watching.
New-crop export sales are off to a slow start as well, likely reflecting ample supplies from the Southern Hemisphere. The current 2026-27 export book stands at 49 million bushels compared to the five-year average of 63 million, a gap that will need to close as the marketing year develops.
The feed grain demand implications of a stressed HRW crop should not be overlooked. Western feedlots are beginning to inquire about old- and new-crop wheat bookings, but given the severity of drought conditions in key producing areas, supplies are extremely limited. The likely result is wheat being pulled from ration mixes and replaced by corn or other feed grains, a modest but real incremental demand factor for corn in the region.
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