Farmers across the grain belt are reevaluating their crop plans as rising production costs and market volatility color the financial picture for crops.
In this episode of Ag Marketing IQ in Depth, Farmer’s Keeper CEO Nick Tsiolis shares insights from the company’s survey of 4,000 farmers across 26 states.
“Since March 1, 21% of farmers said they plan to decrease their corn acres,” Tsiolis says, highlighting the impact of soaring fertilizer prices, which have spiked by as much as 45% since the onset of the Iran war, which was March 1.
Soybeans are emerging as a key profit driver for many farmers, with lower production costs and relatively stable prices making them an attractive option. The trend in the Farmer’s Keeper survey aligns with findings from the Farm Futures Q1 survey, which showed 43% of farmers planning to grow less corn—a stark contrast to USDA’s March 31 report that showed only a 3% decrease in acres of the golden grain.
Despite the economic pressures, Tsiolis emphasizes the importance of maintaining agronomic rotations to ensure long-term profitability. “We always advise farmers to stick to their crop rotation because yield per acre is a bigger determinant of profitability than price,” he says.
That’s a lower priority on marginal acres—those with limited profit potential—are where farmers might consider adjustments.
Planting decisions, of course, ultimately can influence movement in the futures market. “If we see lower corn acres, it’s definitely going to be supportive for corn,” Tsiolis says. “But soybeans could fall out of bed really quickly if oil prices drop and diesel costs come down.”
Input costs, of course, vary by farm — and often by field. Each farm leadership team will make the cropping decision with the least risk and most opportunity for their operation.
“Farming is a long-term game,” he says. “Profitability comes from balancing agronomic and budgeting decisions, not making drastic swings year to year.”
To hear more from Farmer’s Keeper and Nick Tsiolis, tune in to Ag Marketing IQ in Depth.