Farmers wrestled with an array of nettlesome questions as winter turned into spring this year. How long will the Iran war go on? How much higher can fertilizer prices climb? Are USDA’s acreage estimates anchored anywhere near reality?
Add another one to the list: Is it possible for December corn futures to peak again before Mother’s Day?
In late April, as the Middle East war roiled global markets, new-crop December 2026 futures came within a quarter-cent of $5 per bushel and finished just under $4.98, the highest close for a December contract since January 2024.
The $5 mark may be a nice round number that makes for an eye-catching headline. But it’s also a barometer of grain market vitality and symbolic of the question of whether corn farmers have a shot at turning a profit this year. For farmers weighing whether to lock in some new-crop sales, March and April served up a diverse menu of considerations.
There are reasons to think corn may have more upside: weather, for example. In recent history, new-crop corn and soybean futures have often unleashed spring and early-summer rallies spurred by drought scares or other weather concerns. Also, export demand remains record strong. Many are skeptical corn plantings will ultimately come close to USDA’s lofty 95.3 million-acre forecast.
It’s also rare for December corn to post a peak for its corresponding calendar year in April. It’s happened once in the past 15 years (2014’s high of $5.17 on April 9). Over the past 10 years, May (2018, 2021, 2022) and June (2016, 2019, 2023) were the most common peak-price months.
But 2026 is not a “typical” year, and it follows two consecutive atypical years in terms of price action. December 2025 corn, for example, recorded its peak in February that year. December 2024 corn hit its high-water mark in January, on the very first trading day of the year. From there, corn prices in both years largely followed downward paths before generating late-summer recoveries, but still expired well off the peaks.
Were 2024 and 2025 anomalies in the corn market’s otherwise longer-term seasonal predilection to generate spring or summer rallies, however brief?
No one knows for sure. The last time December corn made an extended run above $5 was spring 2023, when prices jumped from a low around $4.91 on May 18 before topping around $6.30 on June 21, a 28% rally in about a month’s time. Price then promptly sold off, tumbling to near $4.80 by mid-July.
No one can say for sure, either, how long the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions will drag on. The combination of a monthslong slog that keeps crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and a drought-driven wheat rally could keep corn prices on an upward track, or at least limit downside.
But if your market depends on other markets to motivate its buyers, that’s probably not a recipe for long-term upside. At some point, traders are going to remember that we’re fresh off a 17 billion-bushel corn crop and likely looking at another big harvest, barring a major summer weather problem.
Enjoy the corn market’s “high-five” while it lasts, but don’t let it swing back and smack you in the face.