By Erin Ailworth
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. increased its annual earnings outlook as the crop trader expects a clearer U.S. biofuels policy to offset market disruptions from the conflict in the Middle East.
The U.S. announced stronger U.S. biofuels blending requirements in March that are likely to increase demand for corn and soybeans that ADM and its rivals process for renewable fuels and other products.
The Chicago-based company now sees adjusted earnings between $4.15 and $4.70 a share in 2026, according to a Tuesday statement. That’s an improvement from ADM’s initial 2026 forecast of $3.60 to $4.25 a share.
ADM shares were up 1% in premarket trading. The stock has climbed more than 30% so far this year, bolstered by optimism for policies that increase the use of biofuels.
Fuel refiners this year are required to mix a record 25.82 billion gallons of biofuels into conventional gasoline and diesel under a long-awaited blending standard finalized by the Trump administration in March.
“With U.S. biofuels policy clarity now providing a stable regulatory framework, combined with our team’s solid execution, we are raising our earnings expectations for 2026,” Chief Executive Officer Juan Luciano said in the statement.
The improved outlook comes as ADM faces challenges in a volatile trade environment roiled by tariffs and, more recently, the war with Iran. The conflict has essentially choked off shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, crimping access to commodities like fuel and fertilizer, while also raising prices for the key farming inputs.
ADM reported adjusted earnings for the three months ended in March of 71 cents per share. That’s up slightly from 70 cents a share a year earlier, and tops the average analyst projection of 65 cents a share.
The company said it saw higher export activity from North America, including “increased soybean and sorghum shipments to China and strong corn exports.” A wave of U.S. soybeans reached Chinese shores this year after a deal between the two nations revived the trade, and a summit next week between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping holds the potential for further sales.
Meanwhile, strengthening ethanol margins drove higher profits in ADM’s carbohydrate solutions business.
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