Farmers have a narrow window to capitalize on current grain prices before USDA reports and geopolitical events next week inject volatility into the market, according to grain analyst Naomi Blohm, of Total Farm Marketing.
On this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Blohm offers three things to consider and three moves grain farmers can make to protect their price opportunity before next week’s reports and events:
Three things to consider
- Understand what's coming. USDA’s May reports create bearish momentum. Tuesday’s report will deliver the first new crop projections using March 31 acres and relying on trendline yields. "Ending stocks likely on paper will still be viewed as comfortable amounts," Blohm warns. "That's not bullish potentially."
- Don't count on bullish surprises. While a potential E15 decision and the Trump-Xi meeting could move markets, Blohm cautions against waiting for positive news. Congress has repeatedly delayed E-fifteen action, creating "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenarios. China's expected soybean purchases may already be priced in, and Brazilian beans currently trade $1 cheaper than U.S. supplies.
- Remember the seasonal pattern. Markets typically find spring price highs between Mother's Day and Father's Day. "We're in that window," Blohm emphasizes. Unless major weather problems develop—which likely won't be a concern until late June pollination—current prices could mark the highs.
Three moves a farmer can make
- Consider cash sales now. December corn hit $5 and November soybeans reached $12 this week—price levels that seemed impossible in January and February. "This was the golden ticket of opportunity that farmers have been waiting for," Blohm said.
- Target one-third to one-half sold on estimated 2026 production. Given the strong prices and seasonal timing, Blohm recommends this positioning to capture current value while leaving room to benefit if weather issues emerge later.
- Set a price floor. Those hesitant to forward contract before feeling more confident about 2026 production can use put option strategies to protect against downside pressure. Find an approach that fits your risk tolerance, but lock in protection at current levels.
Ultimately, Blohm says, with comfortable supply projections likely coming Tuesday and multiple bearish scenarios possible, waiting could mean watching today's opportunity disappear. Crops are being planted in timely fashion, and the market knows it.
To hear more, watch this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.