Fund buying, a Middle East war premium and strong demand for corn recently lifted new crop corn futures prices to $5. Will $5 be the summer price high for December 2026 corn futures? Get strategic now to manage both risk and opportunities in the weeks ahead.
What’s happened
Since the January 2026 USDA WASDE report, 2025-26 corn ending stocks of over 2 billion bushels has been a reality.
Despite this hefty supply of corn, December 2026 corn futures slowly rallied 50 cents over the first four months of this year, allowing December 2026 futures to recently trade to the illustrious $5 price point. The catalyst for the rally has been strong domestic and export demand for U.S. corn, turmoil in the Middle East which supported higher energy prices, which in turn can be supportive for grain markets and fund buying.
Many farmers took advantage of this recent rally and made new crop cash sales as $5 is a large technical resistance area not only on daily charts but also on weekly charts.
A large amount of friendly news now is needed to justify a fundamental push above $5. And that news could come as early as this week.
The week offers a behemoth of news items that could potentially affect U.S. agriculture, and specifically the price of corn.
- Tuesday, May 12. The USDA WASDE report drops. It will have information on the crop for the 2025-26 crop year, and the first glimpse of the 2026-27 crop year. Look for multiple potential changes to the balance sheet in the United States and around the world.
- Wednesday, May 13. Congress is scheduled to vote on a year-round E15 bill. If you recall, President Trump said in January that he would sign an E15 bill if it made it to his desk.
- Thursday and Friday, May 14 and 15. Presidents Trump and Xi are set to meet in Beijing.
Be ready for plenty of news items with potential to shift fundamentals, social media posts from President Trump and potential surprises from the USDA, which could lead to a wild week of market volatility!
From a marketing perspective
Should you look at other information to gain insight into pricing new crop corn? Absolutely.
Looking back on the past 26 years over the time period of April 1 to July 31, the summer high for December corn futures occurred in April three times. The price high occurred seven times in May, while June and July each saw a price high eight times.
That’s a pretty wide net of timing for pricing opportunity. It does, however, remind us to be aware that the next four to five weeks is a critical juncture of time. Watch corn markets daily.
One thing to also be aware of is the December Corn Seasonal Chart. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the 5- and 15-year price patterns suggest that having a portion of your new crop priced near Father’s Day weekend may be a positive step on the marketing path.
Lastly, keep an eye on the managed money fund traders. According to the most recent CFTC report from April 28, Managed Money fund traders were long 264,103 contracts of corn. History suggests that if they really want to be bullish on the market, they can amass a net long corn position of closer to 400,000 contracts.
Keep tabs on their weekly action. Are they adding to long positions? Or will they start exiting long positions?
Prepare yourself
Get prepared for potential upcoming market volatility.
- Place orders. Get cash target price orders working now with your elevator to sell a percentage of your new crop corn. December corn futures have a broader scope historically of when the “summer price high” has occurred.
- Protect your price floor. Consider now how you’re going to protect “unpriced bushels” of new crop. Many of you would be comfortable forward contracting up to half of your expected new crop production, but that leaves half of your new crop unprotected from prices falling lower.
- Consider a hedging strategy. Work with your market advisor now, to create a plan to buy puts, including budget and time value needed.
Get ready. The bottom line is that the summer price high often occurs when you’re busy wrapping up spring planting and fretting over whether the corn crop will grow. This year, you can add plenty of geopolitical uncertainty to the list as well, which could lead to either higher or lower price scenarios.
Remember that moments of uncertainty regarding crop production size and weather scares are often when the market responds and may trade higher. Be ready to capture the opportunity!
Reach Naomi at naomi@totalfarmmarketing.com or find her on X at @naomiblohm.
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