Demands and counter-demands. Tariffs and trade negotiations.
U.S. reliance on China as a trade partner dominated agricultural conversations for most of 2025. And made an export difference for about two months. For soybeans.
It’s time to consider whether U.S. agriculture is focused on China at the expense of other trade opportunities, and consider whether the greater threat from Beijing is on the geopolitical stage.
On ag commodity markets and China, consider this:
Declining population. China’s “whole challenge for the last two decades is they needed to get rich before they got old,” said Scott Jarck, vice president for national lending at Agri-Access. “I think they’re struggling with getting old before they
got rich.”
Soft economy. In its fourth-quarter economic outlook, StoneX said, “China’s economy remains in a softening trend with no clear bottom. All three economic driving engines — investment, exports and consumption — lost steam in Q3.”
U.S. relations. Once China met its 2025 trade commitment, it returned to buying Brazilian soybeans. Its leaders aren’t focused on U.S. trade but on global political status.
Consider this CNN report from the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos: “Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng took the stage at the annual Alpine meet to insist that Beijing ‘has consistently acted on the vision of a community with a shared future and remained steadfast in supporting multilateralism and free trade. We’re upholding consensus and solidarity, and cooperation over division and confrontation, and providing China’s solutions to the common problems of the world.’ ”
Say goodbye to past
To shift to a less rosy view of China-U.S. relations means walking away from what was once a stable, profitable economic reality for decades. Above all, the shift must be intentional, said David Kohl, professor emeritus in ag and applied economics at Virginia Tech.
“America was built on entrepreneurship, and agriculture is a cornerstone of that spirit,” Kohl said. “It’s time to think strategically, embrace innovation and strengthen North American partnerships to secure our future.”
Kohl recently reminded ag audiences of the early 2000s:
China’s demand for commodities and its rising standard of living created the “Great Commodity Super Cycle,” bringing robust profits to the ag sector.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 was both an investment and influence strategy, along with the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). It has since expanded.
Intensified competition is the mental adjustment for the U.S. Before the rise in Brazil’s production, the U.S. was the world’s breadbasket, the preferred nation. That’s no longer the case. Population shifts, increasing wealth that drives demand across more nations and geopolitical tensions that routinely disrupt create the need for U.S. trade that’s rooted in resilience, rather than awash with abundance.
Population matters
In its 2025 trade analysis, “The Big Shrink,” Terrain’s Matt Clark examined the concentration risk of relying too heavily on one country, one market or one trading partner, readily seen in the current hand-wringing over China, which is closely tied to population shifts.
A majority of soybeans and sorghum — 58% and 87%, respectively — are exported to countries where the population already peaked, according to Clark, such as China in 2021.
“By 2035, the share increases for each commodity, implying that more of our current trade partners are hitting peak population,” according to the report.
Corn and wheat export trade continues to focus on countries with populations that are still growing.
“A third of corn’s export partners and around 35% of wheat’s export partners are already in population decline,” Clark reported. “Over the next decade, that number will grow slightly to around 40% for both commodities, which should give both industries time to adjust.”
Clark warned: “Nearly all our corn, sorghum, soybean and wheat exports could go to countries that are in population decline by 2050.”
So, how does the U.S. adjust to a global reality where China sees geopolitical opportunity rise to the top, demand shifts in major export markets, and Brazil continues to drive production higher?
The combined political, population and production variables suggest a multipronged, flexible solution. Kohl would call it “stress testing.”
Top strategies
Trade strategies most supported by experts across the U.S. point to two things:
- developing strong domestic demand, largely based on alternative fuel production
- shoring up trade agreements and relationships with Canada and Mexico
“It’s time to get strategic,” Kohl said in a recent management presentation. “The rest of the world is very strategic — and we’re not.”
He looked around a room filled with some of the country’s largest commodity farmers, a few bankers and a crop insurance agent or two.
“I see more opportunity out there than I’ve seen in the last four years,” Kohl said. “But we have to manage the chaos. We have to manage our mindset to manage the chaos.”