Separating wheat from chaff is always tricky when trying to decipher politicians. And so it is with soybean meats and hulls inside trade deals negotiated at the U.S. – China summit. Predictably imprecise language out of Washinton and Beijing complicates trying to forecast what it all means for prices in the coming year and beyond.
One issue is the differences between the calendar (January through December) and soybean marketing years (September through August). U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer created his own Greer Year, saying China lived up to its promise to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans (441 million bushels) in the last two months of 2025, extending that window “through January,” while agreeing to buy 25 MMT more in 2026, 2027 and 2028.
How that 25 MMT impacts prices depends on multiple factors:
- Will USDA raise its forecast for total 2026-27 marketing year exports, lowering its prediction for supplies left over on Aug. 31, 2027? Or, will other foreign customers buy less?
- How will U.S. processors react? Will they retreat from hefty crush goals stimulated by biofuel demand?
- Could U.S. farmers expand seedings this spring to capture potentially higher prices? Will Brazil again ramp up its seemingly relentless expansion?
Answers to these and other questions spell the difference between an end to the spring rally and a breakout to major gains. Here’s how the numbers could play out.
- First, that 25 MMT goal is hardly far-fetched, matching the average from 2008 to 2025, a period that included trade war and tariff tiff years (2018 and 2025) when shipments were 70% less. China met or exceeded the 25 MMT goal in 10 of the 14 years since it was first reached in 2012. So, it’s not a pipe dream.
- Next, consider USDA’s May 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, released a few days before the summit. The government doesn’t predict Chinese imports from the U.S. but put Chinese total soybean imports at 114 MMT. During the heyday of the bean boom about 37% of China’s soybean imports originated in the U.S. So if that metric is met the U.S. would ship some 42 MMT across the Pacific during the 2026-27 marketing year. That would represent almost 95% of USDA’s forecast for all U.S. exports, a strong hint the agency’s 2026-27 ending stocks forecast for the U.S. is too low, perhaps by around 315 million bushels. The May 12 WASDE put soybean carryout at 310 million bushels, a surplus the higher export total would obliterate. Just a threat of this could take nearby 2026 crop futures towards levels seen in the 2022 inflation spike and 2012 drought frenzy.
- Futures seem undervalued, even without that incentive. November couldn’t hold a move to $12 triggered by summit optimism. But USDA’s move to raise its average price forecast for the crop to $11.40 suggests rallies to $13 to $14 are possible. Instead, markets ignored the soybean story, focusing on inflation, oil, Iran, chips and rare earth minerals while stock indexes raced to record highs.
- Profit-taking on Wall Street could leave lots of loose cash looking for a home, perhaps enough to reignite the soybean story. This means caution is in order for growers who can risk seeing how the trade deal actually plays out.
