Corn and soybean markets returned from Memorial Day weekend testing lows, pressured by falling crude oil prices and continued geopolitical uncertainty that hasn’t eased despite Trump administration claims of progress on Iran negotiations.
"We're down around a couple cents off the recent lows from back in May when everything was looking super great," said Justin McKinney, a broker with Commstock Investments.
"The market doesn't like uncertainty,” McKinney said, speaking Tuesday for this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth. “Therefore, with crude oil being down a little bit this morning, we are back to pushing toward the lows."
McKinney pointed to conflicting signals from Washington on the Iran situation as a key factor keeping markets range bound. "On one hand, we have (Secretary of State Marco) Rubio yesterday morning saying we have a deal with Iran. Less than five minutes later, there's a story on Reuters about us bombing a vessel in the Strait (of Hormuz)," he said. "It does not feel like we're at a relatively quick close to this thing."
Despite the price pressure, McKinney sees reasons for optimism on farm profitability. Strong planting progress and favorable early-season moisture have reduced production risk significantly. "Right now, it looks really good. My farm is sitting perfect on moisture," he noted, adding that western areas of the belt are forecast to receive needed rainfall in June.
McKinney emphasized the importance of disciplined marketing, particularly for 2025 grain still in storage. "I do think it's important to get targets working out there on your 2025 crop in the bin. Some areas have seen basis spikes. If you have those areas, take advantage of them," McKinney said.
Watch for June rallies
For the 2026 crop, McKinney sees potential for improved margins compared to last year.
Though $5-a-bushel corn and soybeans at $14 per bushel don’t offer the profit today that they did pre-war, McKinney said “most farmers should be able to pencil a profit."
Looking ahead, McKinney recommends farmers watch for selling opportunities in June. "I do like selling in the June timeframe, taking advantage of any sort of weather rallies or preemptive buying ahead of the acres report at the end of June," he said.
USDA’s acreage report could reveal surprises. High fertilizer costs and dry conditions in some areas may have shifted planting decisions, lowering corn acreage and boosting soybean plantings.
"We won't know that until the end of June. And then what does that look like for 2027? It doesn't paint a very bearish picture," McKinney added.
To hear more from McKinney about summer market opportunities, tune in to this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.