The number delivered in USDA’s annual January data drop hit like a Mike Tyson right cross to the jaw of U.S. corn farmers. Last year’s corn harvest topped 17 billion bushels — 17,020,549,000 bushels, to be a little more precise.
Last year’s harvest blew past the previous record of 15.34 billion in 2023 by almost 1.7 billion bushels. But even those numbers don’t fully illustrate the enormity of the crop. I’ll try.
To haul 17 billion bushels of corn, you’d need almost 4.5 million covered hopper rail cars holding about 4,000 bushels each. Set end to end, the rail cars would stretch over 51,000 miles, enough to circle the earth — twice.
On one level, the 2025 crop can be celebrated as a historic success story, the result of astonishing advances in genetics and technology, combined with farmers’ skill and innovation, to reap a production potential that was unthinkable a generation ago.
But farmers’ production prowess is now a curse of sorts, contributing to a deepening global glut that likely will keep a millstone chained to grain prices for at least another year. That mountain of grain might as well be a giant pit of quicksand, sucking away farmer profit prospects for the fourth year in a row. And there’s no end in sight.
As another spring planting season looms, the industry has no quick, easy answers to this economic struggle. But here are a couple partial solutions:
Fewer planted acres
It’s obvious the world doesn’t need the U.S. to plant another 98.8 million acres to corn, not now or any time soon. That market message is clear.
Corn plantings surely will drop this year, but will it be enough to put a dent in the supply overhang?
Some analysts see a relatively modest drop of 3 million to 4 million acres, rather than the more severe pullback that’s probably needed to get supply and demand back in balance.
Government payments
The Trump administration’s $12 billion Farm Bridge Assistance Program announced in December further muddies the picture, perhaps ultimately resulting in more corn acres than market conditions would seem to dictate.
Corn’s per-acre payout under FBA, at $44.36, is higher than that for both soybeans at $30.88 and wheat at $39.35.
Increased demand
For near-term action, the industry should do everything it can to make sure already strong corn demand gets even stronger and, hopefully, eventually soaks up the excess supply.
Congressional efforts toward a year-round E15 ethanol blending mandate are a step in the right direction. Based on current gasoline usage, the National Corn Growers Association estimates a 5% increase in the national average blend rate would use 2.4 billion more bushels of corn for domestic ethanol. You can give your elected representatives a nudge.
Open markets
We absolutely need open global markets as free as possible from tariffs and other trade barriers. While you’re at it, circle Nov. 3 on your calendar, the next election day. If your representative doesn’t return your messages, send another message at your local polling place.
As Farm Futures’ editor, Pam Caraway, wrote in January, the reality is the farm economy has been working from “the same playbook that we cracked open a few decades ago. The old plays don’t work for us given our production costs and land values.”
Tyson, the former heavyweight boxing champ, is famously credited for saying something to the effect that “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Well, USDA and the market just socked farmers right in the kisser.
Producers will get up off the mat as they always have. But each farmer must take a hard-eyed look at their plan and at least recalibrate. The old plan isn’t working any longer, and there’s about 17 billion reasons why.