The late Jim Newman, an early pioneer in agricultural climatology, introduced me to the El Niño cycle in 1983. I sat in his tiny office in the Purdue Poultry Building for many discussions early in my career. One lesson is top of mind.
“Too many farmers look out their front window and judge the season by what they see,” Newman said. “If crops look good, they think it must look good everywhere. If it’s too dry, they think it’s too dry everywhere.
“They don’t understand that those guys in Chicago pay attention to what happens everywhere. Summer weather is variable. You can’t base decisions on what you see out your window.”
Fast-forward: Look at big picture
On June 24, farmers in northwest Iowa looked out their windows and saw devastation from too much rain. Farmers in parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, South Dakota and Wisconsin saw wet fields, too.
But in west-central Illinois, Holly Spangler, editor of Prairie Farmer, saw corn twisting up like pineapples. In central Indiana, I saw near-perfect, waist-high corn, basking in sunshine after a good rain.
What marketing decisions should each person make? If you apply Newman’s logic, you probably shouldn’t make any decision until you’ve considered the whole picture. There are so many more ways to do that today than 40 years ago.
2nd lesson: Don’t decide too soon
I learned another lesson in 1983 — the hard way. It quit raining in the eastern Corn Belt in June. Newman explained why it wasn’t raining; due to the El Niño cycle, potential storms were blocked. But I thought it would rain. It always had before.
So, when corn prices went up on a weather scare, I convinced Dad to forward-contract corn. Prices were in the $2-per-bushel range in 1982, and $2.75 per bushel looked good in June 1983. He contracted.
What I had yet to learn from Newman was that there is drought every year, somewhere. And there is flooding every year, somewhere. Only when it is way too dry or way too wet over a large area of the Corn Belt does damage become real. A weather scare becomes reality.
I had never seen drought on our farm, but I did in 1983. Real damage occurred before rain returned. Yields averaged 120 bushel per acre. Dad wasn’t happy later selling at $2.76 when corn was over $3 per bushel.
Here’s the point. Before you make decisions, look at the big picture — far beyond your front window. Keep watching all season. Look for that point where a weather scare will either become real damage or fade away.
3rd lesson: Consider multiple views
Maybe you want to hedge your bets. I often walked to lunch with Newman after our discussions. One cloudy day, he stopped to grab an umbrella.
“You don’t need it,” I said. “The radio weather only calls for a 10% chance of rain.”
Newman just smiled. On the way back, it started sprinkling. He popped open his umbrella, smiled and said, “I checked our weather maps. Don’t always trust the local weatherman, Tom!”
You can’t always outguess the weather. But pay attention to as many sources as you can — from all over the country, not just nearby. Maybe you will figure out this topsy-turvy season before harvest.