Chris Ford has been involved in the organic produce business for 30 years, and as someone who’s experienced the industry’s steady growth firsthand, he remains eternally optimistic about its future.
Ford, the business development and marketing manager of the Mount Vernon, Wash.-based marketer Viva Tierra Organic, sees several key drivers to the industry’s potential for long-term success, he said. They include:
- Consumer demand
- Continued expansion of value-added convenience options, both fresh and as ingredients
- Improvement in farm-level technologies
- Focus on building soil health, and
- Consistent high-quality, flavorful choices.
“The key is (to have) all parties including farmers, marketers, distributors, retailers, and government agencies united in this approach,” Ford told Farm Press in an email. “There are several land mines out there, too, on the federal level including potential mass deportation targeting farmworkers, special interest groups lobbying on behalf of giant corporations and tariffs. All can result in driving costs up. This is not a political statement but the likely result.”
Bakersfield, Calif., organic marketing consultant Todd Linsky shares Ford’s views about the need for unity. He suggests the industry might benefit from a national checkoff program for organic products, which was authorized in the 2014 Farm Bill but shelved because of a lack of support.
The proposal, called Generic Research and Promotion Order for Organic (GRO Organic), would raise over $30 million a year for cultivation research and promotion. The program could ease consumers’ confusion about the benefits of organic food sown by labels like “natural” and “non-GMO,” its proponents say.
“I think what hurts us is a lot of times we are divided into our own ideals and not unified,” Linsky told Farm Press. “I think it’s a systemic problem in the industry that’s existed for a very, very long time. I don’t think we ever unified as a whole. The industry grew and production grew … Now we have individual brands that are just off doing their own thing and never had the opportunity to unify.”
Linsky and Ford will be part of a panel at the Organic Grower Summit titled, “Can organics become a $144 billion market?” With Linsky as moderator, other panelists will include Stephanie Alexandre of Alexandre Family Farms and Meghan Diaz of Sprouts Farmers Market. The discussion will begin at 9 a.m. Dec. 4 in Ballroom B at the Hyatt Regency Monterey Hotel and Spa.
Rapid growth ahead?
The topic was inspired by a report last spring that asserted the U.S. organic food market, which was worth $59.4 billion in 2023, is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 10.35% through 2032, putting the industry’s value at $144.15 billion. The report was published by Renub Research, a market research and consulting firm, and covered top brands including Danone, General Mills, Sprouts, the Kroger Co., Dole Food Co. and Newman’s Own.
The report cited Organic Industry Survey results showing an increase in organic food consumption over the last 20 years. In 2020, American consumers spent $56 billion on organic fruit. The researchers listed trends that are expected to fuel the industry’s continued expansion, including:
- A rise in certified organic farms, with 17,445 U.S. farms managing 4.9 million certified organic acres in 2021. In just two years, there was a 5% growth in the sale of organic crops, from $5.8 billion in 2019 to $6.1 billion in 2021.
- Availability of new organic food products in response to consumer demand.
- Growing concerns about environmental sustainability.
- Advancements in distribution and retail channels such as specialty shops, supermarkets and internet platforms. According to the USDA, conventional grocery retailers accounted for 55.6% of sales of organic food in 2021, surpassing natural food stores as the most popular outlet.
The organic food market is particularly prospering in California, where it is seen as a pioneer in sustainable agriculture, the Renub report noted. According to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service through California Certified Organic Farmers, the Golden State produces 40% of the organic commodities bought in the United States, including 68% of the nation’s organic vegetables.
However, organic ag’s explosive growth – the number of farms nearly doubled from 2011 to 2021 – has come at a cost for some farmers, according to a University of California study published last summer. Mainly, the increase in supply of organic commodities has putting downward pressure on the premium prices that growers have always received, squeezing their profit margins.
This was one of several concerns noted in the UC Organic Agriculture Institute’s initial research, which gathered and analyzed data from 423 responses to an online grower survey, over 60 interviews with stakeholders and additional observations from farm visits and workshops, according to the university.
Industry priorities
Respondents frequently cited systemic priorities, such as:
- Maintaining integrity of the term “organic”
- Developing a market for organic seeds
- Spreading consumer awareness, and
- Alleviating the burdens of organic certification and reporting
Linsky, chief executive officer of Todd Linsky Consulting, believes the UC offered a fair assessment. As production costs go up, particularly in California, there’s still “a ceiling of what consumers are willing to pay,” he said. “Organics are certainly doing OK … but that’s a real, real problem.”
At the moment, the primary extramural funding source for organic agriculture research and education is the USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture, which takes applications from organic farmers for many of its programs. However, only two of the programs are specific to organic farming – the Organic Transition program and the Organic Agriculture Research and Extension Initiative, the Renub report explains.
Many different organizations and companies try to represent the interests of the industry, but they’re splintered, Linsky said.
“My hope is that people embrace that organic food is medicine,” Viva Tierra’s Ford said, “and we all need to continue to work together to promote health and wellness for the generations to come.”