AccuWeather meteorologist Chad Merrill predicts a 2026 grain crop season similar to 2015, driven by a developing El Nino that intensifies through winter with a 30-40% chance of reaching "super" strength by early January.
Across the season, Merrill expects weather to support average or better yields for grain farmers. In Farm Futures speak, then, farmers looking for weather rallies to market their crop will need to watch closely.
“Through the early part of July, it'll dry out a bit across the Corn Belt area,” Merrill says on this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth. He warns that corn yields currently rated 80-90% good to excellent will drop 5-6% as dry conditions and heat stress crops during pollination.
Oh, hail!
The coming week brings scattered thunderstorm clusters with potential wind damage and small hail across the Midwest. Mid-July offers relief as tropical activity in the West Pacific bends the jet stream, delivering cooler temperatures and more frequent rain across much of the country.
“If you have three days, three consecutive days, with temperatures in the mid-90s that can really dry things out,” Merrill explains. He expects up to 3-day stretches of mid-90s temperatures between storm systems rolling through the next several weeks.
Late July turns drier. Infrequent thunderstorms before August could bring monsoon moisture from the Southwest into the southern Corn Belt. September looks wet with near to slightly above average temperatures.
Overall, Merrill projects average to slightly above average final yields for corn and soybeans.
On the radar: Good harvest weather
Harvest conditions also appear favorable. October brings near-average rainfall and temperatures. November is expected to be mild.
"The main agricultural areas likely won’t see any early freeze risks or frost risks," Merrill says. Generally, he says, El Nino typically delays cold air intrusions into early winter.
To hear more crop weather for the 2026 season, listen to or watch this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.