By Kim Chipman
President Donald Trump’s slew of tariffs means American farmers may not make that big shift to corn after all.
Growers were widely expected to plant the most corn in five years due to tighter supplies. Now levies on some products from Canada, Mexico and China have shifted a key market indicator in favor of soybeans.
Corn prices, which had surged earlier this year, erased almost all of 2025’s gain as tariffs threatened to lock growers out of key export markets, leaving bins bursting. Tariffs have also made fertilizers more expensive, and farmers need more inputs to raise corn than soybeans.
“This week took some of that glitter off corn and put it on soybeans,” said Iowa producer Benjamin Riensche, who is now considering scrapping his idea of seeding more corn and fewer soybeans than usual this year.
The so-called corn-to-soy ratio, a key indicator of what farmers will plant in the spring, is currently at about 2.2. That’s up from this year’s low of 2.04 on Feb. 19. A ratio of more than 2.5 usually means farmers will favor soybeans over corn, the largest of US crops.
Last month, the US Department of Agriculture estimated growers would plant 94 million acres of corn, up from 90.6 million in 2024. Soybean acres were forecast at 84 million, down from 87.1 million a year ago.
While market signals still favor more corn plantings this spring than soybeans, lower corn futures are causing some growers to reevaluate.
“It’s hard to know what to do right now,” said Ryan Frieders, an Illinois farmer who sits on the board of the American Soybean Association.
The cost of fertilizers has also increased as the US gets about 85% of its potash from Canada. Global potash prices jumped 20% when Trump’s tariffs were announced about a month ago.
While previous delays on implementing duties allowed growers to rush imports, additional duties of 10% are now in place and could hurt crucial fall fertilizer applications.
“If we don’t have fertilizer going into spring planting, that can be catastrophic and have big implications on farmers and the cost they pay for inputs and ultimately on food prices,” said Corey Rosenbusch, chief executive officer of The Fertilizer Institute trade group based just outside of Washington.
Rosenbusch added that the US also gets 25% of its nitrogen, a critical input for corn, and 20% of its sulfur from Canada.
“For the third straight year, farmers are losing money on almost every major crop planted,” American Farm Bureau Federation President Zippy Duvall said in a statement. “Adding even more costs and reducing markets for American agricultural goods could create an economic burden some farmers may not be able to bear.”
© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.