By Hallie Gu
China’s decision to renew import licenses for hundreds of U.S. meat plants is yet to revive the beef trade, but the odds of more shipments in the second half of the year are improving.
U.S. prices are too high and Chinese demand too soft for exports to have picked up immediately, underscoring how commercial realities are intruding on the diplomatic thaw that stemmed from the presidents’ summit in May.
But support could be on the way as Chinese quotas allocated to other major suppliers dwindle — provided the trade truce with Washington holds. Australian beef now faces hefty tariffs, while Brazil is close to using up its allowance.
“I think there’s still a lot to look forward to when it comes to U.S. beef exports to China in the second half of the year,” said Alice Xuan, analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence. “Australia has run out of quota, but the U.S. still has a lot and that gives them a big advantage.”
U.S. beef prices have surged to record highs, driven by the smallest cattle herd in decades. Meanwhile, China’s slowing economy and the government’s austerity measures for civil servants have sapped demand for the premium cuts of meat that feature in Chinese banquets.
The country’s total beef imports fell last year for the first time in at least a decade. At the same time, domestic production has risen to help keep a lid on prices.
Brazil, Argentina and Australia were China’s top foreign suppliers in 2025. The U.S. exported just 49,000 tons of frozen meat, the main beef export, after trade tensions flared up. For this year, China has put quotas on imports to protect local farmers.
Those have run out for Australian shipments, leaving exporters facing a 55% tariff. High-end U.S. beef is on a par with Australia’s in terms of quality and price, said Xuan.
Top exporter Brazil, which usually supplies cheaper meat, is close to reaching its quota. The U.S., though, still has its 164,000-ton allowance almost entirely intact and ready to be deployed.
China will definitely buy more U.S. beef, said Brett Stuart, founding partner at consultancy Global Agritrends, adding there’s still demand from richer Chinese for the high quality, grain-fed beef that the U.S. specializes in.
But other, more economical and flavorful, cuts like chuck, short ribs and tripe will also see more competition once China reenters the market.
© 2026 Bloomberg L.P.