While the potential large corn crop coming for the 2025-26 crop year is keeping December 2025 corn futures prices in check, history suggests that a summer corn price rally is still a strong possibility. In fact, the average summer rally for December corn futures over the past seventeen years is 91 cents!
What’s happened
With 2024-25 old crop corn ending stocks now at a significantly tight number of 1.465 billion bushels, old crop corn futures prices have maintained their upward price trend established since late August 2024.
For now, July 2025 corn futures have had a hard time rallying higher than $5 in spite of the friendly old crop ending stock data. The reason is due to the large corn crop getting planted in the United States this spring.
With profit margins thin, producers really want to make sure they do a great job of marketing. Let’s make an action plan to be ready for a potential summer rally.
From a marketing perspective
USDA pegged the 2025-26 U.S. prospective corn planted acres at 95.3 million acres this spring. This is up from 90.6 million acres last year.
Traders are aware of this potentially higher corn production, yet so far have shaken off the negative news as demand for U.S. corn is strong, and there is plenty of summer weather to get through yet. Many weather forecasters are predicting a high potential for summer drought in the western U.S. corn belt.
I put together this chart which shows four potential yield and ending stock scenarios incorporated with the higher 2025-26 corn acreage number. The chart shows how that if a weather issue arises this summer with hotter or dryer conditions, and should yield drop to 175 bushels per acre (which is still phenomenal from a historical perspective), then ending stocks for the 2025-26 crop year would only increase slightly to 1.56 billion bushels (assuming the same demand as the previous crop year). Weather still matters!
If you’re trying to decide when to pull the trigger on new crop corn sales, one thing to be aware of is the December corn seasonal chart. While past performance is not indicative of future results, the 5- and 15-year price patterns suggest that having a portion of your new crop priced between Mother’s Day and Father’s Day may be a positive step on the marketing path.
Of historical note: The average rally for December corn futures from the price low of the day of the late March Prospective Plantings report to the “summer price high” is 91 cents! The chart below illustrates that information.
But do be aware that in years with expected larger planted acres or larger corn carryout expected, the rally has a tendency to be closer to 40 cents, barring any unforeseen weather or geopolitical event.
No “magic date” exists to know when to pull the trigger on new crop sales. The December seasonal chart above is quite helpful and does suggest the summer price high has a tendency to occur in May or June. But not always.
Looking at the past 17 years the price high occurred in:
- May 5 times
- June 7 times
- July 5 times
Prepare yourself
What can you do now to be prepared? Consider placing cash target price orders now with your elevator to sell a percentage of your new crop corn.
Even though we know that old crop carryout is tight, based on what we know right now, a 2-billion-bushel carryout for new crop is a potential reality. Barring a severe weather concern in the United States this summer, that carryout might make it tricky to see new crop corn futures trade above $5.
Also, consider how you’re going to protect “unpriced bushels” of new crop corn on a rally.
Many of you would be comfortable forward contracting up to half of your expected new crop production on a rally, but that leaves half of your new crop unprotected from prices falling lower once the rally starts to fizzle. Work with your market advisor now, to create a plan to buy puts to protect a price floor, including budget and time value needed.
Get ready. The summer price high often occurs when you’re busy wrapping up spring planting and fretting over whether the corn crop will grow, especially when upcoming summer forecast may look hot and dry.
Remember: Those moments of uncertainty regarding crop production size and weather scares are often when the market responds and could trade higher, and you need to be ready to capture the opportunity!
Be disciplined and be prepared to act. Prices often come crashing down as fast – or faster – than when they rallied, leaving you with mere days or minutes to capture the rally.
Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X: @naomiblohm, and at naomi@totalfarmmarketing.com.
Disclaimer: The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Individuals acting on this information are responsible for their own actions. Commodity trading may not be suitable for all recipients of this report. Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Examples of seasonal price moves or extreme market conditions are not meant to imply that such moves or conditions are common occurrences or likely to occur. Futures prices have already factored in the seasonal aspects of supply and demand. No representation is being made that scenario planning, strategy or discipline will guarantee success or profits. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing. Total Farm Marketing and TFM refer to Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., Stewart-Peterson Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services, LLC is an insurance agency and an equal opportunity provider. Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. A customer may have relationships with all three companies. SP Risk Services LLC and Stewart-Peterson Inc. are wholly owned by Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. unless otherwise noted, services referenced are services of Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. Presented for solicitation.