Corn, soybeans sustain rallies on bullishly viewed USDA data

Corn and soybean futures extended overnight rallies after USDA, in its Supply and Demand report for May, forecast lower than expected U.S. stockpiles at the end of the 2025-26 marketing year. Wheat futures remained under pressure after USDA predicted a sharp jump in next year’s supplies.

About 1.8 billion bushels of corn are expected to be on hand at the end of the 2025-26 crop, USDA said in the report, which included the agency’s initial estimates for the upcoming marketing year. While estimated stocks would be up 23% from 2024-35 and the highest since 2.237 billion bushels at the end of 2019-20, analysts expected a figure slightly over 2 billion bushels. USDA also cut its ending stocks estimate for 2024-25 by 3.4%, to 1.42 billion bushels

In midday trading, July corn rose 3 cents to $4.5275 per bushel after briefly spiking to $4.5875. July soybeans Jumped 20.25 cents to $10.7225 after hitting $10.7475, the contract’s highest intraday price since late February. July Chicago wheat fell 2.5 cents to $5.1925.

USDA forecast the 2025 corn harvest at 15.82 billion bushels with an average nationwide yield of 181 bushels per acre, both records. The crop would be up nearly 1 billion bushels, or 6.4%, from last year’s harvest, based on USDA estimates. Analysts expected corn production closer to 15.79 billion bushels.

Estimated corn production is expected to come in around 15.787 billion bushels and the average nationwide yield is seen at about 181.1 bushels per acre, based on a Reuters survey of analysts. The projected harvest would be up 6.2% from last year’s crop and top the current record of 15.34 billion bushels set in 2023. The forecast yield would also be a record.

Ending U.S. soybean stocks for 2025-26 were pegged at 295 million bushels, a 16% drop from 2024-25 and well-below the average analyst estimate at about 375 million bushels. The lower stocks figure reflects expectations for a smaller U.S. crop and outlook for a 3% increase in crushing, USDA said.

USDA estimated the 2025 soybean harvest at 4.34 billion bushels, down about 26 million bushels from last year, with an average nationwide yield of 52.5 bushels per acre. The production figure was close to analysts’ expectations.

The agency’s wheat numbers indicated that supplies are expected to remain burdensome even with production expected to drop. U.S. wheat supplies at the end of 2025-26 are expected to balloon to 923 million bushels, up nearly 10% from 2024-25 and the highest ending stocks since 2019-20.

NOTE: All figures measured in billions of bushels

NOTE: All figures measured in millions of metric tons (MMT)

NOTE: All figures measured in millions of metric tons (MMT)