In my last column, I searched for a positive spin following a disastrous June collapse in old- and new-crop corn prices. But the best I could do was express hope for a market rally and a second chance to price grain.
The first trading day following the July 4 holiday delivered some hope. December ’26 corn futures rose 16 cents per bushel and closed at $4.58. The market added an extra 6 cents the following day for the highest closing price since early June. While $4.64 is short of the $5 May high, it is 35 cents better than June lows.
On July 7, November ’26 soybeans closed just a few cents shy of $12 per bushel and the highest since late May and just a dime less than May highs.
The price surge following the holiday begs a question. Can this rally be sustained and continue higher in July, August and September? The quick answer is: Of course it can — if the hotter temperature forecasts persist and sales to China renew. However, these are not small “ifs.”
Second chances rare
Let’s return to my analysis of a month ago and those 19 years with a sharp May-June price decline. How many of these years enjoyed a strong July rally? I found three years when new-crop corn prices rallied 10% or more in the month of July — 1991, 1997 and 2001. Not one of these years was able to sustain the rally beyond July.
This quick and dirty analysis brings me back to my hope for a market rally and a second chance to price grain. My conclusion? This is it. It is time to get serious with our second chance to price old- and new-crop grain.
Concerning the 11th Commandment of grain marketing — “Thou shall not hold unpriced corn or soybean in the bin after July 1” — we apparently have a number of sinners among us. The June 30 grain stocks report showed nearly 3 billion bushels of corn held on farms throughout the country as of June 1.
In Minnesota, farmers held 465 million bushels in storage, which does not reflect well on the influence held in my own home state. If you are one of these producers with 2025 crop in the bin, this rally is your second chance to get last year’s crop priced and moved.
Concerning new-crop pricing, those suffering from the seller’s lament — “I should have sold more” — now have a second chance to price more of your 2026 crop.
Second chances are never ensured, but here it is. You have no guarantee of a third chance.