The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, out Friday morning, didn’t have a lot of bombshell surprises for traders to digest, although the agency’s current assessment of the current corn crop still assumes record-high per-acre yields and total production.
Grain prices generally saw moderate cuts immediately following today’s report. Of particular note, December corn futures faded to $4.1150. That’s the third day out of four that prices hit a contract low.
Corn
USDA made no changes to its per-acre yield estimates for July, still assuming an average of 181.0 bushels per acre. However, the agency slightly lowered its production estimates from 15.820 billion bushels in June down to 15.705 billion bushels in July. That was also a bit below the average trade guess of 15.731 billion bushels.
Domestic ending stocks also decreased slightly, from 1.365 billion bushels in June down to 1.340 billion. Analysts were expecting to see that number hit 1.353 billion bushels.
Soybeans
USDA is still expecting to see soybean yields come in at 52.5 bushels per acre, mirroring analysts’ expectations. Production is expected to fade slightly lower, moving from 4.340 billion bushels in June down to 4.335 billion. That nearly matched the average trade guess of 4.334 billion bushels.
Domestic ending stocks were unchanged, at 350 million bushels. That was modestly below the average trade guess of 358 million bushels.
Wheat
USDA pegged all-wheat production for the upcoming 2025/26 season at 1.929 billion bushels, which was 14 million bushels above the average trade guess. Of that total:
- Winter wheat – 1.345 billion bushels
- Spring wheat – 504 million bushels
- Durum – 80 million bushels
Domestic ending stocks were steady, at 851 million bushels. Ending stocks for 2025/26 eased from 898 million bushels in June down to 890 million.