As farmers tune combines and the calendar flips toward harvest, it’s time to revisit one of the most important decisions you’ll make this fall: what to store, what to sell, and when.
While weather and yield dominate summer headlines, profitability this fall will hinge just as much on logistics, storage strategy and knowing your breakeven.
Start with your breakeven
Your breakeven is your financial line in the sand—the minimum price needed to cover production costs.
For 2025, Iowa State University estimates breakevens around:
- Corn: $4.22–$4.27/bu
- Soybeans: $10.94–$11.17/bu
Breakevens, of course, depend on crop rotation and yield expectations. As yield prospects improve, breakevens tend to fall. The key question: Can current fall prices meet or exceed your breakeven?
If yes—even with slightly lower futures—it may make sense to lock in early sales before harvest. You can always consider re-owning bushels later via futures or options. Keep in mind: Higher local yields usually mean weaker basis post-harvest due to increased supply. If fall cash bids remain below breakeven, consider:
- Storing grain to wait for better pricing opportunities
- Using tools like puts, HTAs, or minimum price contracts
- Locking in profits on a portion of your crop
Focus on margin, not just price. A $4 corn sale that locks in profit is better than chasing $5 and missing both.
Evaluate your logistics and storage capacity
Harvest isn’t just a market event—it’s a logistics challenge. Ask yourself:
- Do I have enough bin space for both crops?
- Are bins clean and ready for long-term storage?
- Is my trucking and handling crew lined up to avoid bottlenecks?
With space likely tight this fall, many elevators and end users may face:
- Reduced receiving hours
- Long wait times
- Wide harvest basis levels
Both corn and soybeans currently show large carries in the futures market, but storing grain comes with risk. Futures may not cooperate. Storage also adds cost, such as:
- Interest on stored bushels
- Aeration and electricity
- Shrink and quality loss
- Opportunity cost of not selling sooner
Example
Storing corn for three months could cost around $0.20/bu. To justify storage, you’ll need at least that much improvement in basis or futures. Option strategies can help you stay in the market without taking on physical storage costs.
What to store? What to sell?
Corn
- Typically shows weaker basis at harvest but more carry in futures
- Best stored if you have on-farm bins—especially in ethanol or feedlot-heavy regions
- Watch for basis recovery and March/May carry to offset storage costs
Soybeans
- Basis is currently under pressure due to lack of major Chinese buying
- Usually sold off the combine for early cash flow—but basis is softer than normal this year
- If basis firms and futures hold, consider selling soybeans at harvest
- Consider call option strategies to re-own bushels later
Strategy
Sell soybeans to cover short-term expenses, and store corn to take advantage of post-harvest opportunities.
Put your plan in motion
Before harvest begins:
- Know your breakeven by field and crop
- Assign bins to crops with better post-harvest upside
- Set price targets and working offers now—before you're mid-harvest
- Use decision tools or consult an advisor to evaluate your store vs. sell economics
Final thoughts
The best harvest strategies aren’t about hitting the top—they’re about locking in returns and minimizing regret. Grain condition, storage capacity, and cash flow are just as important as market price. Don’t let harvest chaos dictate your marketing. Take time now to plan and prepare.
Don’t just harvest your crop. Harvest your opportunity.
If you’re looking for personalized guidance this fall, I’m here to help. Call me at 314-626-4019 or reach out to the AgMarket.Net team at 844-4AG-MRKT.
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