Farmers face critical marketing decisions as commodity markets present what grain economist Ed Usset calls “a second chance” to capture profitable pricing opportunities heading into 2027.
The grain marketing economist for the Center for Farm Financial Management at the University of Minnesota sees opportunity this month in selling the carry — a lower-risk strategy that locks in guaranteed returns through deferred contract hedging. Corn producers can currently capture substantial value by positioning for next year's market.
Speaking on Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Usset looked at strong carry in the corn market. “You combine that with the anticipated improved basis from harvest out in the next spring. And you might be able to add 40, 50, 60 cents to the harvest price.”
Wheat presents similar opportunities with “a very large carry from September to December in spring wheat or out into March," Usset noted, calling it “a great opportunity.”
The strategy addresses a fundamental marketing challenge: achieving consistent returns rather than chasing elusive price peaks. “You're not going to sell the high,” Usset cautioned. “What you're trying to do is get a good average price.”
Sell some, bin some
Usset recommends balancing approaches rather than concentrating risk. “I don't mind taking some risks, just don't risk it all on one strategy,” he advised. He recommends farmers combine selling the carry with holding some unpriced bushels.
Basis improvements appear positioned to strengthen. “I like to believe we can see some better basis levels in the 2026-27 crop year compared to this current crop year,” Usset said.
The timeline for capturing these opportunities extends into spring 2027. “The basis improvement in selling the carry, I think, takes you into the new year, out into the spring of ‘27 and April, May, June of next year,” Usset explained.
Before that happens, Usset said, expect a price lull. Historically, such a drop is likely going into August. His urgent message to producers: “Don't let the calendar page turn without taking advantage of this second chance.”
Hear more from Usset on this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.