Cattle futures spent most of the past month under pressure from softening cash fundamentals, as both the boxed beef cutout and the CME Feeder Cattle Index continued to work lower, reinforcing the broader downtrend.
The Feeder Cattle Index has fallen $32.21 since its June 24 high and is now sitting at the lowest level of the calendar year. Boxed beef cutout values followed a similar path — choice values peaked at $400.31 on June 23 before sliding $39.07 to $361.24. This deterioration in cash fundamentals explains why futures struggled to find support.
Ports reopening
Last Friday, July 24, USDA confirmed the Douglas, Ariz., port of entry will reopen to cattle imports on Aug. 24, 2026 — a development the trade has been anticipating for some time. This headline shifts fundamental support since prices have been elevated since the border first closed in November 2024. The mechanics of the reopening remain unsettled, though officials have characterized Douglas' reopening as a 30-day trial. Early indications suggest the initial phase may be limited to beef feeder cattle. Should the trial proceed without incident and New World screwworm cases remain contained, two additional New Mexico ports are expected to consider a similar partial reopening.
The outlook isn't entirely bearish. August feeders have defended the $336 level throughout the year, and the Feeder Cattle Index continues to trade at a premium to futures — a combination that remains supportive of the front-month contract, provided the cash market can absorb the supply implications of these headlines.
Volatile fundamentals
The fundamental backdrop for the cattle complex has been volatile since the border first closed, shaped by tariffs, geopolitical tension, New World screwworm and the ongoing situation at the Mexican border. Amid it all, the factor that matters most is your own operation and how you manage the risk this market presents.
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