U.S. grain farmers face a complex marketing environment as multiple geopolitical flashpoints drive input prices higher while also creating pricing opportunities for the 2026 crop, and perhaps also for 2027.
This week's high-stakes meetings between the U.S. administration and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and along with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, could have lasting market impact as global leaders navigate conflicts that directly affect grain flows and energy costs. The discussions, which took place around Sen. Lindsey Graham's funeral on Tuesday, highlight how geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine are influencing agricultural markets and creating supply disruptions. To further add fuel to a grain marketing fire, drought is driving down yield expectations in the European Union.
No price-popping guarantees
Though crop degrading weather and acts of war across the globe are unprecedented, the historical reality is that rallies rarely go into August. This, then, is the week to make grain marketing decisions, says Brian Basting, an Advanced Trading grain economist, who appears on this week’s Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.
Basting says the dilemma of when to grab a price opportunity and when to wait can be resolved by using marketing tools, such as hedge-to-arrive contracts, which give farmers a chance to capitalize on recent price rallies while maintaining flexibility for potential upside surprises.
The volatility has pushed prices higher across multiple commodities, Basting notes. November soybean futures hit contract highs last week, while corn reached its highest prices since early May. Wheat futures have climbed to $7 or above for Chicago contracts.
“These prices were significantly lower” just 30 to 45 days ago, Basting notes. Across the grain spectrum – wheat, soybeans and corn, he recommends farmers protect their balance sheets by establishing price floors through cash sales or hedge-to-arrive contracts while simultaneously purchasing call options to maintain upside potential.
The take-home message: Make some sales. “We definitely want to reward the market with this rally,” Basting says.
Several factors support continued price strength. China's President Xi Jinping plans to visit the United States in September, potentially triggering major grain purchase announcements. Additionally, China recently made significant soybean purchases and traders suspect a few “unknown” corn buys likely can also be attributed to China.
“A demand surprise is certainly possible here as we look at U.S.-China relations,” Basting says. “Flexibility is the phrase that we would use with 2026 at this point.”
Ongoing disruptions to Black Sea grain flows could also boost U.S. export demand. “If they have trouble getting the grain out of Ukraine, then that certainly would support more export business from the U.S.,” he explains.
Despite tighter margins compared to 2021-23, producers now have tools to capitalize on improved pricing.
“View volatility as opportunity,” Basting says, “and we want to maximize those opportunities to the best we can.”
Hear more from Basting on the outlook for grain markets and tips on marketing the 2026 crop by tuning into Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.