“Riding the storm out,” metaphorically or literally, might suggest hunkering down and staying in one place. For U.S. row-crop farmers grinding through another down year and looking at more of the same in 2026, that old axiom isn’t necessarily the most advisable course of (in)action.
While U.S. corn and soybean farmers likely will see another few years of depressed crop prices and weak margins, these seven defined steps can help ease the sting and perhaps even unlock opportunities in the grain markets – or perhaps even in other crops, according to Stephen Nicholson, Rabobank’s global sector strategist for grains, oilseeds and farm inputs.
Nicholson sees some reasons for hope but believes it’s going to take some time before global markets whittle down excess grain supplies, and the industry returns to a “breakeven” situation for producers. At this time, Nicholson says, “We don't see much potential for breakeven until we get to the 2027-28 crop year.”
Here are seven tips Nicholson offers to help farmers ride out lean times:
Keep an eagle eye on costs
Obviously, watch your expenses and understand your breakeven costs. What does it cost to produce a bushel on your farm? In other words, know everything that goes into it producing that crop—inputs, land, machinery, interest expense, etc.
Watch for rewards season
Market rallies should be “rewarded,” particularly if prices get back to break even (corn and soybean price action last week offers a good example). Amid an outlook for abundant global grain supplies, rallies likely will sell off quickly. If you can lock in profitable margins, do it promptly. Don’t wait for higher prices.
Like them apples
On the sell side, think about “component” selling—sell futures and basis when it makes sense. By component selling, you get “two bites of the apple” rather than one.
Think hard on whether storage is a good idea
What is the opportunity cost? Storing grain can be like holding a depreciating asset. Nicholson asks: Why not sell it? You can take the cash and invest it in a money market account, annuity or something else that offers a guaranteed rate of return. Cash is king.
Think storage is paid for? Think again
You can store for delivery later, but this requires some work on the farmer’s part. What is true cost of carry? “My storage is paid for” is not the correct answer. What is a realistic interest rate in the calculation—the opportunity cost? What’s the carry the market is willing to pay you to hold the grain? And if you decide to store and deliver later, you must execute a sale now—not when you get there—to lock in the carry.
Consider re-ownership of sold grain
You can always sell grain, which raises the question of opportunity cost. But if you are bullish on the market, Nicholson suggests you consider “re-owning” grain by buying a futures contract or a call option.
Consider alternative crops and diversification
Such moves would be preferred when margins are strong (because you could afford a mistake), but you can still consider looking into other “non-traditional” crops beyond corn and soybeans. These crops could include non-GMO grain, fresh produce, organic crops, oats, hay, pulses, sweet corn and more.
Also, think of ways to diversify your operation, perhaps by adding livestock or a custom feeding business. Evaluate other skills or services you could offer, such as custom farming, repair work, welding or seed sales.