As corporate carbon credit demand heats up again, questions boil over about fluctuating government support, varied regulation and whether farmers can cash in on this market.
There’s no denying that carbon credit markets have some actual value. In fact, the carbon credit market was worth $1.4 billion in 2024, according to MSCI (formerly Morgan Stanley Capital International). And Allister Furey, CEO at Sylvera, notes that demand for high-quality credits is at “an all-time high” this year.
“There is some uncertainty with what’s going to happen with some of the government programs,” according to Ashley Bruner, Agoro Carbon marketing manager. “However, the voluntary market continues to see growth.”
Carbon partners
To that point, Agoro recently secured a deal with Microsoft, which agreed to purchase 2.6 million in soil carbon removal credits to offset some of that company’s emissions. Agoro believes this is the largest single deal on record so far.
“The growing corporate appetite for high-integrity agricultural carbon removals is really important to carbon buyers,” Bruner says. “They want to make sure that you’re following a clear protocol that’s third-party verified.”
Grower decisions on carbon credit partners hinge on uncertainty regarding governmental support.
“Our farmers are happy that we’re not connected to a government program because they have a clear commitment with us,” Bruner says. “It gives them some comfort that it’s not changing with different administrations.”
Agoro is trying to differentiate itself from competitors by hiring regional agronomists to help growers with new qualifying conservation practices.
“Our success is directly tied to our producers being successful,” Bruner says. “So, we want to give them every tool we can to be successful.”
Carbon market value
According to the aforementioned MSCI report, carbon credit markets are poised to remain on an upward trajectory for the foreseeable future.
By 2030, total valuation could jump to between $7 billion and $35 billion. And by 2050, long-term projections foresee a potential value ranging between $45 billion and $250 billion.
One lingering challenge is how to locate more so-called “high quality” carbon offsets — and defining what that means. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market attempted to address this through 10 fundamental principles, which include transparent tracking and measurability. Also, credits can’t be double-counted or claimed multiple times.
“I think there’s a real genuine interest in making carbon credit programs successful, but for the right reasons,” Bruner concludes.