As we move through mid-October, harvest is progressing rapidly across much of the Midwest, and a few clear trends are beginning to take shape. Farmers have been weighing whether to move grain at current prices or store grain in hopes of higher future prices and stronger basis bids — which remain at historically wide levels — and we’re now seeing the results of those choices.
Soybeans: Basis firms as farmer selling slows
Soybean harvest is largely wrapping up, and the tone in the soybean market has quietly improved. Strong early yields and fast harvest progress initially pressured futures and basis levels, but many farmers found creative ways to store beans on the farm. As a result, fewer soybeans moved to town than expected.
That slowdown in deliveries has helped local elevators and processors firm up bids in several areas to capture any unharvested bushels. Crush margins remain solid, supported by steady domestic demand. The latest National Oilseed Processors Association crush report showed U.S. crushers processed 197.9 million bushels of soybeans in September — sharply higher than expected. That’s the highest September crush on record and fourth highest monthly crush on record, underscoring strong domestic demand.
Export sales to China remain absent, though market talk suggests China still needs to secure 8-9 million metric tons for December/January shipment. Despite U.S. soybeans currently being $1.10 to $1.20 per bushel cheaper than Brazilian origins, China continues to avoid U.S. purchases amid ongoing trade tensions.
All eyes are on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting, as any progress—or setback—in trade discussions could quickly influence near-term demand. China’s soybean reserves remain comfortable for now, and Brazil’s planting pace is off to a strong start.
The key question: Can China stretch its existing supplies until Brazil’s new crop becomes available if trade negotiations with the U.S. deteriorate?
Interestingly, the sharp U.S. price discount has attracted increased global demand from buyers outside of China — a modest bright spot for U.S. exporters. With U.S. beans now largely in the bin, end users will likely continue to nudge basis higher in the weeks ahead to encourage movement from the countryside.
Corn: Basis holds steady, futures search for direction
Corn harvest is in full swing, and yield reports continue to come in as “just okay” — below the optimism seen earlier in the summer. A slightly smaller crop is helping prevent basis from softening further, but unlike soybeans, more corn continues to flow directly to market as storage space tightens.
Keep in mind that U.S. corn ending stocks are projected to be over 900 million bushels higher than last year, which remains a bearish overhang. There’s also some local concern that soybeans stored earlier are occupying bin space normally reserved for corn, potentially keeping localized pressure on corn basis until elevators make sales to open some storage space.
Futures have been rangebound, with December corn unable to break through key resistance levels. Export sales for corn remain strong. Mexico remains our most reliable buyer, and global demand continues to find value at these low prices.
What’s next?
As harvest winds down, markets may be carving out seasonal lows. Once combines stop rolling and grain stops moving, end users usually need to step up bids to draw out bushels.
If you’ve got bin space, holding grain into late fall/early winter may pay off — especially on basis improvement and carry in the board. The December to July carry in corn is around 28 cents, while November to July soybeans carry is roughly 57 cents. Futures will likely need a stronger demand story to move higher, but the overall tone feels steadier than it did a few weeks ago.
Crush and ethanol margins remain two bright spots, and any improvement in exports could help spark a late fall recovery.
One wildcard to watch is potential government payments. If those materialize, farmer selling could slow dramatically, which would likely support both basis and futures in the short term.
The bottom line: Harvest-time pressure is easing. Basis should continue to narrow as harvest nears completion and while futures may still lack a catalyst, a steadier tone is emerging. Keep watching bids closely — quiet strength often shows up before the headlines do.
Need market guidance?
If you’re looking for personalized guidance this fall, I’m here to help you navigate the choppy waters of grain marketing.
Call me at 314-626-4019 Or reach out to the AgMarket.Net team at 844-4AG-MRKT.
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