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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
As the new year unfolds, farmers face a complex market brew bubbling with geopolitical and economic uncertainty, along with the usual questions over demand and price direction. Could corn find its way to a $5 handle, or break below $4? Read Bryce Knorr’s latest Ag Marketing IQ post as he examines key issues for the grain markets ahead of USDA’s critical January 12 reports.
Corn rally momentum fades
March corn futures rose 0.25 cent to $4.4475 per bushel late in overnight trading after earlier touching $4.46, the contract’s highest intraday price since December 29. Futures jumped 7 cents Monday for the contract’s first gain in six days.
Momentum from Monday’s rally tapered off overnight as March futures faded from a brief foray above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $4.4525, a key long-term indicator the market hasn’t closed above since December 26. But technicals have been shored up to some extent with prices rebounding from Monday’s initial slide to a two-week intraday low at $4.3625 back to roughly the midpoint of the past two months’ trading range.
Active fund short covering drove Monday’s rally, but traders may be content to avoid large positions and let the market consolidate ahead of Monday’s USDA reports. March futures retain key support around the December low at $4.3550.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price surged about 7.25 cents Monday to $4.0550. Monday’s average was about 39 cents below March futures.
Speculators bought heavily in grains to start the week amid a broader “risk on” rally across several markets, including metals and crude oil. On Monday, funds bought about 30,000 corn futures contracts after selling 48,000 contracts the previous five days, based on StoneX estimates. The U.S. military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is being monitored but is unlikely to exert much near-term impact on the grain markets.
Hopes for a bullish surprise in Monday’s USDA reports have contributed to recent strength in corn futures. The reports will include USDA’s Crop Production Annual Summary, which typically features “final” 2025 estimates for U.S. corn and soybean production and yields. A year ago, USDA’s unexpectedly large cut to the U.S. corn yield help trigger a winter rally.
A recent slide in corn exports is getting traders’ attention, though shipments remain sharply above last year’s levels. Early Monday, USDA reported another batch of previously-delayed export sales data. By Thursday, the agency is expected to be fully caught up on weekly export sales numbers that were backlogged during last fall’s government shutdown (Thursday’s report will cover the week ended January 1).
USDA reported net U.S. corn sales for the week ended December 25 at 756,400 metric tons (29.8 million bushels), down 66% from the week prior and a 16-week low. Mexico was the week’s top buyer at 308,100 MT. Sales commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.99 billion bushels, up 30% from the same period in 2024-25.
Also Monday, USDA reported corn inspected for export during the week ended January 1 at 1.207 MMT (47.5 million bushels), down 9.6% from the prior week and but up 38% from the same week a year earlier. Japan was the top destination at 294,366 MT. For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, corn shipments total 1.056 billion bushels, up 65% from the same period in 2024-25.
Shipments are running about 307 million bushels above the year-to-date seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's full-year export target of 3.2 billion bushels, says to StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman.
However, inspections “really dropped off over the past two weeks, raising questions about whether the shipment pace can be sustained longer-term,” Suderman said in a report Monday. “Demand has been good to this point from Mexico, Southeast Asia and Europe. Those markets will be closely watching development of the South American crop over the next several months.”
Letting go of full-time oversight and management of a farm – or even relaxing the hold a bit – may seem unimaginable to some farmers. But it’s the only way the farm can survive into the next generation. Transition experts suggest four stages of leadership to transfer authority and responsibility to successors. No. 1: Start with “boots on the ground.”
Soybean futures show bottoming action
March soybeans rose 3.5 cents to $10.6550 overnight after earlier reaching $10.66, the contract’s highest intraday price since December 30. Futures soared 16.25 cents Monday to $10.62, breaking a five-day losing streak.
Futures extended Monday’s strength overnight as March futures continued a rebound from a 2 ½-month intraday low of $10.38 posted last Friday. The past few days’ price action suggests prices may be in the process of forming a long-awaited near-term bottom following a tumble of as much as $1.35 from mid-November highs. A close above the 10- and 200-day SMAs ($10.6275 and $10.6650, respectively) could further solidify bottoming sentiment and embolden buyers.
Funds bought about 15,000 soybean futures contracts Monday, based on a StoneX estimate, reversing not quite half speculators’ sales the previous week. Over the five days ending last Friday, fund selling in soybean futures totaled about 33,000 contracts.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price climbed almost 17.25 cents Monday to slightly over $9.87, up from two-month lows reached last week. Monday’s cash average was about 75 cents below March futures.
Soybeans’ strength this week reflects corrective buying driven in part by rumors of fresh Chinese purchases, though price gains may be limited by favorable growing conditions in Brazil. Harvest is getting underway in Brazil and will accelerate this month, with the world’s top soybean producer widely expected to reap another record crop.
On Monday, StoneX Brazil hiked its 2025-26 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 0.2% to 177.6 MMT (6.53 billion bushels), citing higher yields in Mato Grosso, one of the top production states.
Monday’s USDA export numbers showed continued Chinese progress toward the 12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases the White House has said China would make before the end of February.
USDA said net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended December 25 totaled 1.178 MMT (43.3 million bushels), up 12% from the previous week and within analysts’ expectations. China was the week’s top buyer at 396,400 MT, bringing the country’s total reported soybean purchases for 2025-26 to about 7.02 MMT (257.9 million bushels).
Analysts believe China’s actual purchase total is higher. “Our cash sources suggest that another roughly 4 MMT has been sold to China, but not yet confirmed by USDA,” according to Suderman.
U.S. soybean exports remain sharply down from last year, reflecting China’s absence from the market for much of last year. Overall U.S. soybean export commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 1.018 billion bushels, down 31% from the same period last year and a 14-year low.
Also Monday, USDA said soybean export inspections totaled 980,518 MT (36 million bushels), up 27% from a three-month low the previous week but down 24% from the same week a year earlier. China was the top destination at 397,069 MT. Based on USDA inspections, soybean shipments for the marketing year through January 1 totaled 602.6 million bushels, down 45% from the same period in 2024-25 and near a 14-year low.
Inspections are running short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's full-year U.S. export target by about 259 million bushels, according to Suderman, though “we should narrow that gap assuming that China continues to purchase per the trade agreement,” he added. USDA previously estimated 2025-26 soybean exports will drop to a 13-year low at 1.635 billion bushels.
Wheat exports slumping
March SRW wheat fell 0.25 cent to $5.1225 after advancing 6 cents Monday, the contract’s second straight daily gain and its highest close since December 29. Futures have rebounded from Friday’s drop to a contract low at $5.0150, suggesting buying interest near the psychologically important $5 level.
March HRW wheat rose 0.75 cent to $5.2150 after adding 5.75 cents Monday in a continued rebound from two-week lows hit last Friday. March spring wheat fell 1 cent to $5.7025.
Wheat futures joined the corn and soybean rally Monday but saw little follow-through overnight, with global cash markets subdued and the U.S. crop in winter dormancy. Disruption to Black Sea grain shipments remains a background, but that’s being overshadowed by abundant global supplies that likely will continue to limit price rallies in 2026.
Traders are also waiting for USDA’s January 12 reports, which will include the agency’s initial estimates of U.S. winter wheat plantings for the 2026 crop.
U.S. wheat exports have slumped in recent weeks but remain up sharply from last year’s levels. USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales during the week ended December 25 at a weaker-than-expected 95,400 MT (3.5 million bushels), down 35% from the previous week and a marketing-year low for the second straight week. South Korea was the week’s top buyer at 145,000 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, U.S. wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) total 734.7 million bushels, up 18% from the same period in 2024-25.
Also Monday, USDA reported wheat export inspections for the week ended January 1 at a marketing-year low of 183,305 MT (6.73 million bushels), down 42% from the week prior and down 56% from the same week a year earlier. The Philippines was the top destination at 74,996 MT.
For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments now total 560.8 million bushels, up 20% from the same period in 2024-25 and about 62% of USDA’s full-year target of 900 million bushels.
Stock index futures flat after Dow hits record
Stock index futures were little changed overnight a day after strength in energy shares helped vault the Dow industrials to a record close.
Futures based on the S&P 500 fell less than 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 index futures rose less than 0.1%. Dow futures fell less than 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index added about 0.1% a day after climbing to its highest level in over three weeks.
February WTI crude oil futures rose 20 cents to $58.52 per barrel. Gold futures gained 0.5% to about $4,473 per ounce, extending a rally as escalating geopolitical tensions fueled safe-haven buying in metals.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- The “secret sauce” of healthy soil? Biology. The crux of soil health hinges on chemical, physical and biological properties being in balance and allowing for a functioning, sustainable system.