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Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.
What we’re watching
Soybeans have been in near free-fall since mid-November, but that doesn’t mean bulls are doomed to find lumps of coal in their stockings. Futures have shown a recent historical tendency to rally between Thanksgiving and New Year’s, with gains during the past decade averaging 88 cents, Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm says in an Ag Marketing IQ post. China could provide just the spark.
Corn technicals take another hit
March corn futures rose 1 cent to $4.3750 late in overnight trading after dropping 3.25 cents Tuesday to $4.3650, the contract’s third consecutive daily decline and its lowest close since October 22. Futures are down almost 20 cents, or over 4%, from a four-month intraday high of $4.57 hit November 14.
Futures stabilized overnight following a three-day slide but near-term technicals remain soft, with the March contract having settled under the 100-day simple moving average, currently $4.37, for the first time since October 22. March futures’ intraday low for November at $4.3450 looms as a key downside level. A push under that mark could fuel further pressure that takes prices to the low $4.30s. Upside levels to watch include the 50-day SMA at $4.4150.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell about 3.25 cents Tuesday to slightly under $3.9175, a three-week low. Tuesday’s cash average was about 44.75 cents below March futures, narrowing from 51.75 cents a month earlier.
Corn futures were burdened Tuesday by the market’s eroding charts, as well as spillover pressure from a sell-off in wheat and crude oil futures. Recent rains have benefited key growing areas in South America, bolstering expectations for huge corn and soybean production in 2026.
Prices retain support from a record export pace and slow farmer selling, which could limit efforts to extend the downside as trading activity thins out ahead of the Christmas holiday next week. Traders will be closely watching the November corn lows as well as the soybean market. Soybeans’ finding a near-term bottom could help corn limit downside.
U.S. corn shipments fell last week but continued to exceed last year’s levels. Corn inspected for export totaled 1.583 million metric tons (62.3 million bushels) in the week ended December 11, down 9.1% from the prior week but up 37% from the same week a year earlier, USDA reported. For the 2025-26 marketing year to date, corn shipments now total 885.9 million bushels, up 69% from the same period in 2024-25.
Early Monday, USDA reported private exporter corn sales totaling 150,320 MT (5.92 million bushels) for delivery to “unknown destinations” during 2025-26. Monday’s announcement followed a so-called flash sale of 250,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations, also for 2025-26 delivery.
Many analysts expect U.S. farmers to plant less corn next year, but will it be enough to take a chunk out of excess supplies? A drop of just over 4%, for example – to about 94.5 million acres – could still result in 2026-27 ending stocks above 2 billion bushels. There’s “potential for another significant increase in ending stocks” for 2026-27, Advance Trading’s Brian Basting says in an Ag Marketing IQ post. China looms as a wild card.
Soybeans’ steep slide continues as trade eyes Brazil
January soybeans fell 1 cent to $10.6175 overnight after tumbling 9 cents Tuesday to $10.6275, the contract’s third consecutive daily drop and its lowest close since October 24.
Soybeans stabilized somewhat overnight but the market’s near-term technical posture remains weak, with January futures having closed under the 100-day SMA ($10.69) for the first time since October 17. However, January futures filled a daily chart gap between $10.63 and $10.70, fostering ideas the market may be close to finding a near-term bottom.
Futures have erased about $1.07, or over 68%, of a $1.57 rally from the October low to a 17-month high of $11.6950 reached November 18.
Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price dropped about 8.75 cents Tuesday to $9.92, near a seven-week low. Tuesday’s average was roughly 71 cents below January futures, narrowing from 70.75 cents a month earlier.
January soybean meal rose $1.30 to $303.70 per ton after slipping $1.10 Tuesday to halt a three-day winning streak. January soybean oil fell 26 points to 48.10 cents per pound after plunging 2.3% Tuesday to a six-month low.
Soybean futures tumbled further Tuesday as deteriorating charts fueled additional fund selling. Disappointment over the pace of China’s soybean purchases and reports of widespread rains across major crop areas of Brazil also weighed on the market. Sharp declines in soyoil, a reflection of delays in federal biofuels mandate guidance, added further pressure.
“As the calendar turns toward 2026, South American weather will take on greater importance,” according to Stewart-Peterson Group’s Grain Market Insider. “Conditions in Brazil remain generally favorable for now, but longer-range forecasts hint at drier trends developing in Argentina. With January being a key window for weather risk, markets may look to add premium if conditions turn more challenging.”
Tuesday brought no new additional USDA confirmations of China soybean business, but the country is still likely to continue purchasing U.S. beans over the near-term, if the market’s recent sell-off sparks renewed buying interest.
Early Monday, USDA reported private exporter soybean sales totaling 132,000 (5 million bushels) for delivery to China during 2025-26. Monday’s announcement brought recent USDA-confirmed China soybean purchases to at least 3.51 MMT (128.8 million bushels). That’s about 29% of the 12 MMT the White House recently said China would purchase by the end of February.
Weekly inspections data USDA reported earlier this week showed U.S. shipments included China as a soybean destination for the second week in a row. Also, USDA said net U.S. soybean sales for the week ended November 20 totaled 2.321 MMT (85.3 million bushels), more than triple the previous week and at the high end of expectations. The total included 2.142 MMT of sales to China.
Overall soybean export commitments for 2025-26 to date (including accumulated exports) now total 761.4 million bushels, down 38% from the same period last year and a 17-year low.
Wheat chart collapse continues
March SRW wheat fell 1.25 cents to $5.0825 after nosediving 11.25 cents Tuesday to $5.0950, the contract’s seventh decline in the past eight days and a lifetime-low close. March wheat also hit a fresh contract low at $5.0750.
March HRW futures fell 0.5 cent to $5.0450 after sinking 7 cents Tuesday to a two-month closing low. March spring wheat fell 0.75 cent to $5.6450 after losing 3.75 cents Tuesday to post a lifetime-low close.
Wheat futures extended a six-week slide overnight in the wake of this week’s chart collapse, which has been driven by active speculator selling. Bearish supply fundamentals continue to overwhelm the market, with big crops expected from most top global producers in 2026. Prices remain under pressure despite strong exports and weakness in the dollar, which could help make U.S. grain more competitive on global markets.
The French farm ministry estimated the country’s soft winter wheat planted area will reach 4.56 million hectares next year, up 2.3% from 2025.
U.S. exports have slipped in recent weeks but continue to run well-above last year’s levels. On Monday, USDA reported net U.S. wheat sales for the week ended November 20 at 361,700 MT (13.3 million bushels), less than half the total from the previous week and a five-week low. Wheat sales commitments (including accumulated exports) for 2025-26 through November 20 totaled 679 million bushels, up 23% from the same period in 2024-25 and a nine-year high.
White Christmas for Midwest unlikely
The second half of this week is expected to bring a brief warm-up along with light rain or snow for much of the Midwest before temperatures return to more seasonal levels over the weekend.
Prospects of a white Christmas for the Midwest look slim, as the National Weather Service’s latest 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks both call for above-normal temperatures to expand out of the Southwest and envelop the entire Plains and Midwest through December 30. Both outlooks also call for near-normal to below-normal precipitation prospects.
Wall Street poised for firmer open after jobs data
Stock index futures climbed overnight a day after the Labor Department reported a mixed picture for the U.S. job market. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 105,000 in October while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a four-year high, the department said. However, payroll growth was a stronger than expected 64,000 in November.
Futures based on the S&P 500 index rose over 0.3%, while Nasdaq-100 futures added 0.4% and Dow futures gained 0.2%. The U.S. dollar index gained 0.4% in a rebound from Tuesday’s drop to its weakest level in over two months.
January WTI crude oil futures surged $1.24 to $56.51 per barrel a day after plunging near five-year lows amid signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and worries over global demand. Gold futures added almost 0.5% to around $4,352 per ounce.
What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning:
- What gift do you get for the farmer who has everything? How about a battery-powered welder? Spoil your farmer this Christmas with these farm shop upgrades.