Farmfutures

Don’t miss the latest market commentary from the Farm Futures team. Sign up for the complimentary morning and afternoon market newsletters!

Prices updated as of 6:55 a.m. CDT.

What we’re watching

Soybean farmers welcomed the U.S.-China trade deal struck this week, but beef producers, furious over the Trump administration’s plan to import cattle from Argentina, aren’t rushing to pop the champagne corks. Earlier this week, 14 Republican senators sent an open letter to Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins calling on the administration to reconsider, Joshua Baethge reported.

Corn ending week on soft note

December corn fell 2.75 cents to $4.2750 per bushel late overnight after slipping 3.75 cents Thursday to $4.3025. The contract is still up from $4.2325 at the end of last week and on track for a third consecutive weekly gain. December futures are up about 12 cents since the end of September.

Corn futures extended Thursday’s pullback overnight and the market appears to be ending the week on a soft note after December futures failed to take out resistance at the 200-day simple moving average around $4.37. Near-term technicals have shifted neutral-weaker, and further declines early next week could signal that the market put in a short-term top with Thursday’s high.

Near-term support comes in at the 10-day SMA ($4.27) and this week’s low $4.26. A push below those levels could put the 20-day SMA (about $4.2225) in bears’ sights. Funds have been active buyers, reportedly adding about 29,000 corn futures contracts the first four days of this week.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash corn price fell 3.5 cents Thursday to $3.91, down from Wednesday’s four-month high but still up from $3.8275 at the end of last week. The cash average was about 39.25 cents below December futures, down from slightly under 40.75 cents a week earlier.

Corn futures appear to have run out of upside gas after climbing near four-month highs earlier this week behind spillover strength from the rally in soybeans. While easing U.S.-China trade tensions are viewed as a general positive by grain markets, the trade deal is not expected to include any Chinese corn purchases.

Corn prices remain underpinned by strength in cash markets, robust exports and easing harvest pressure. Dry conditions expected into early November should allow farmers to mostly wrap up the remainder of harvest. Analysts widely expect U.S. corn yields to be revised lower from USDA’s record 186.7 bushels-per-acre forecast release in September.

The ongoing government shutdown forced another missed weekly USDA export sales report, but analysts believe corn demand stayed firm. Traders surveyed by Reuters expected net corn sales ranged from 1.1 million to 2.1 million metric tons (43.3 million to 82.7 million bushels) during the week ended October 23.

Farm industry struggles aren’t confined only to the U.S. Banco do Brasil SA, the biggest lender to Brazil’s ag industry, is threatening to stop making loans to farmers who file for bankruptcy protection as a wave of defaults hits the nation’s rural regions. The bank’s profit slump is one of the clearest signs of trouble facing both farmers and banks in one of the world’s top ag producers.

Soybeans up sharply on week

January soybeans fell 5.75 cents to $11.02 late overnight after surging 13.25 cents Thursday to $11.0775, the third gain in the past four days and highest close for a most-active contract since July 2024. Futures are up almost 42 cents, or 3.9% from $10.6025 at the end of last week and are poised for a third straight weekly advance.

January futures have also gained 82 cents, or 8%, from about $10.20 at the end of September. November soybeans fell 5.25 cents to $10.86 after gaining 11 cents Thursday to $10.9125.

Soybeans' near-term technical posture strengthened considerably as prices rallied this week, with January futures posting a bullish outside day higher on the daily bar chart Thursday. Upside levels to watch include this week’s high at $11.1450. A push above that level could prompt bulls to target longer-term resistance around $11.25 and $11.34.

Downside levels to watch include this week’s low at $10.7025, the top of a gap left on the daily bar chart following Monday’s sharply higher open. Funds bought heavily in soybean futures this week, with purchases totaling 72,000 contracts through Wednesday.

Barchart’s front-month national average cash soybean price rose over 13.75 cents Thursday to $10.2625, the highest since mid-June, and is up from $9.7275 at the end of last week. Thursday’s price was about 65 cents below November futures, compared to 69.5 cents a week earlier.

December soybean meal fell $2.30 to $313.30 per ton after soaring 2.2% Thursday to $315.60, the contract’s 13^th consecutive daily gain and its highest close since mid-March. December soyoil fell 37 points to 49.28 cents per pound after dropping 1% Thursday to the contract’s lowest close since September 30.

Soybean futures fell overnight in a corrective, profit-taking pullback from this week’s rally as traders weighed the longer-term implications of the trade agreement struck by the U.S. and China, which led to a resumption of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans following a months-long halt.

As part of the agreement, China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons (441 million bushels) of U.S. soybeans this year and at least 25 MMT (918.5 million bushels) annually the next three years. While having the world’s biggest soybean importer back in the U.S. market is a welcome development, enthusiasm has been muted to some extent by uncertainty over the timing and volume of near-term Chinese

Additionally, China’s longer-term purchase pledges would fall short of the country’s U.S. soybean imports prior to President Trump’s second term. During the previous five marketing years, China imported an average of just under 29 MMT (1.06 billion bushels) a year.

“The primary sticking point that we're seeking clarity on is in regard to the 12 MMT committed for the current ‘season’ ending in January,” StoneX analyst Arlan Suderman said. “That suggests that we're talking calendar years rather than marketing year, which is how China prefers to frame things. But it doesn't clarify if that is 12 MMT of additional business, or if it is total for the current year.”

“My expectation is that China will immediately step up purchases to fill the gap ahead of Brazil new-crop soybeans arriving in late February, fulfilling the 12-MMT commitment,” Suderman added. “The next 25-MMT commitment would likely be for delivery next fall.”

Elsewhere, most of Brazil’s summer crop areas are expected to receive rain this weekend into next week, but certain spots bear watching due to dryness concerns, according to World Weather, Inc. “The precipitation will improve topsoil moisture, but it is unlikely to soak into the subsoil very well and that will lead to some need for improved follow up rainfall. Short term improvements in crop conditions are likely.”

Wheat rally fades

December SRW wheat futures fell 6 cents to $5.1825 late overnight after tumbling 8 cents Thursday to $5.2425, halting a three-day win streak that had propelled the market to six-week highs. Futures are still up from $5.1250 at the end of last week and on track for a third consecutive weekly gain.

Wheat futures’ strengthening charts continue to bolster confidence the market may have finally established a near-term bottom, with December SRW futures up 26 cents from a contract low at $4.9225 on October 14.

December HRW futures fell 7 cents to $5.06 after dropping 9.75 cents Thursday to end a three-day upswing. The contract is still up from $5.0150 at the end of last week and has rebounded almost 29 cents from a contract low at $4.7725 on October 14. December spring wheat fell 0.5 cent to $5.50 after dropping 10 cents Thursday to the contract’s lowest close since October 22.

Wheat futures extended Thursday’s declines overnight as support faded from a soybean- and short covering driven rally earlier in the week. Similar to corn, the U.S.-China trade agreement is not expected to include any significant wheat purchases.

Prices remain underpinned by strong export demand and potential concerns over dryness in HRW wheat country.

Net U.S. wheat exports during the week ended October 23 ranged from 350,000 MT to 600,000 MT (12.9 million to 22 million bushels), based on the Reuters survey. For 2025-26 to date, wheat shipments totaled 421.2 million bushels, 19% above the same period in 2024-25 and a 12-year high for this point of the marketing year, which began June 1.

Elsewhere, the European Commission raised its 2025-26 European Union soft wheat production estimate from by 0.6% to 133.4 MMT (4.9 billion bushels) and kept its export forecast steady at 31 MMT (1.14 billion bushels).

Warm, dry start to November

The Midwest and Plains should remain mostly dry through the early part of next week, with only trace amounts of precipitation expected for Minnesota, Wisconsin and the eastern Dakotas today through Monday, based on NOAA’s 72-hour precipitation map. Southern areas of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana may also receive trace amounts.

Conditions across the central U.S. during the first two weeks of November continue to hold a warmer- and drier-than-normal bias, with the National Weather Service’s 6-to-10-day and 8-to-14-day outlooks. The 6-to-10-day outlook, which covers November 5-9, calls for above-normal temperatures expanding from the Plains through the eastern Corn Belt, along with below-normal precipitation prospects for most of the region.

Tech strength boosts Wall Street

Wall Street is poised to close the week on a strong note behind earnings-driven strength of megatech companies including Amazon and Apple. Both companies reported stronger-than-expected results after Thursday’s close.

Futures based on the Nasdaq-100 index surged about 1.2%, while S&P 500 index futures were up nearly 0.7% and Dow futures were little changed. The U.S. dollar index was little changed but still near a three-month high posted Thursday.

December WTI crude oil futures fell 15 cents to $60.42 per barrel. Gold futures gained modestly to push back above $4,000 per ounce.

What else I’m reading at www.FarmFutures.com this morning: