As seen by market analysts and business leaders, the soundest strategy for U.S. trade as global politics volatilize, populations shift and production peaks is to lean into the most stable and trusted trade partners the U.S. has known: Mexico and Canada.
And the strategy has a 2026 deadline: The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is undergoing mandatory review. In place since 2020, USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement. By July 1, all three nations must decide to extend the pact for another 16 years or risk its phased expiration.
As global competition intensifies and the world shifts toward regional economic blocs, global business expert David Kohl believes that leaning into the competitive strength of partnerships with Mexico and Canada is the path to improved profitability for U.S. farmers.
“I think we need to be ‘North American strong.’ We need Canada. We need Mexico. You put us together: 5% of the world population, almost 29% percent of the world economy,” Kohl said. “Where in the world are you going to get that economic bloc?”
By the 2030s, “we’re going to be competing not as just the United States, but global blocs — the North American, the European bloc, the Asian bloc, the Global South bloc,” he said.
“Mexico is our No. 1 corn buyer, our No. 2 soybean buyer and a No. 1 wheat buyer,” noted Frayne Olson, crop economist and market specialist at North Dakota State University. “Our trade relations with Mexico are critical. They’re also huge beef suppliers, as well as poultry. I mean, there’s a whole bunch of trade that goes across the U.S.-Mexico border. … For agriculture, our trade relations and the trade agreement with Mexico is more important than China.”
Bree Baatz, an oilseed analyst at Terrain Grain, agrees.
“As their population grows and more people move from lower-income brackets into the middle class, we’re seeing a significant increase in protein consumption,” Baatz said of Mexico in a recent episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, a Farm Futures video series. This shift directly benefits U.S. farmers, as Mexico imports more beef, grains and feed products to meet the needs of a population that’s growing in numbers and wealth.
“When consumers have more disposable income, they improve their diets, which means more animals and more feed,” Baatz noted. “That’s fabulous for U.S. farmers.”
Though tempers flared in 2025, key factors in looking to Canada and Mexico are “trade friendliness” and proximity, as in shipping ease.
Mexico is particularly partial to the U.S., according to Baatz. “Brazil and Canada have made trade overtures, but Mexico’s proximity and existing infrastructure give the U.S. a competitive edge,” she said. “This partnership is vital for the long-term success of U.S. agriculture. Mexico is ours to lose.”