Don’t call it a flash in the pan.
So-called “flash sales” are large-volume grain sales that exporters are required to report to USDA if they surpass a certain volume. Some of these announcements – especially for particularly large sales – can be helpful in guiding grain prices higher. However, those data points went dark starting on October 1, when the federal government shutdown began.
But with the government back open for business as of Wednesday evening, USDA announced it would release details for every flash sale that happened between October 1 and November 12 on Friday morning.
A total of 28 (!) flash sales happened during the shutdown. That’s a lot to unpack, but here are a few relevant points to consider:
Of that total, 18 were for corn, 8 were for soybeans, 1 was for winter wheat and 1 was for soymeal.
Mexico remains a critical buyer of U.S. corn. Our southern neighbor routinely made purchases in October and early November, including a historically massive sale of 61.8 million bushels on October 13.
China showed up in the report, but that may leave some traders with mixed feelings. China purchased a total of 12.2 million bushels of new crop soybeans on October 30 and November 3. However, no large sales have shown up on the books since then, and China has committed to purchase more than 440 million bushels of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year.
Still possible? Yes. Likely? That’s anybody’s guess at this point.
And what further complicates the matter is that the 440 million bushel promise was announced by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in late October. But China’s Ministry of Commerce has refused to confirm this claim so far. They have made more opaque statements about “cooperative trade” but haven’t mentioned soybeans specifically.
Grain headed to unknown destinations is sometimes frustrating for traders. Technically, exporters must make a “diligent effort” to obtain the final destination. However sometimes grain is “unsold afloat” – meaning it has been loaded on vessels before the final buyer is confirmed. Analysts tend to assume that most flash sales tagged “unknown destinations” will end up in China.
The lone white wheat sale was announced on October 2 and had 4.0 million bushels bound for Bangladesh. The lone soymeal sale was announced on October 30 and had 237,500 metric tons bound for the Philippines.
Mexico was by far the dominant buyer, but a few other important trade partners showed up on the ledger, including South Korea, Egypt and Japan.
Here’s a look at the full list of flash sales that took place between October 1 and November 12:
