Analogous to a race, the calendar for 2025 shows we are headed down the backstretch toward the finish line of a year marked by multidimensional chaos.
Geopolitical and social risks are rising globally, leading to uncertainty in consumer confidence and longer-term investment decisions. Whether in the boardroom or on the front line of business, beneath the city skyline or at sunset over the prairie, a general feeling of unsettledness and tension can be felt across the country, regardless of demographic, income or wealth. Given this context, what have I learned from my travels to more than 25 states and engagements with people around the globe in 2025?
The new agricultural lender
This is not your parents' or grandparents' agricultural lender. The new agricultural lender often has a nonfarm background and sometimes hails from an urban area. More are non-agricultural school graduates with degrees in finance and marketing, and in some areas, liberal arts degrees dot the landscape. A college or university degree is no longer the sole ticket for employment. Many come from the school of hard knocks through mid-career shifts or geographic relocations driven by spouses and partners. On a positive note, they are often quick learners with good attitudes.
Land sales
Farm and ranch land sales are picking up as the financial stress and aging demographics of the baby boomer generation enter the final phase of ownership and management. More farm and ranch sales result from divorce or family turmoil. Others are driven by non-farm family members, sometimes called "waiters," because they waited for parents and grandparents to pass and then chose to liquidate the land. This often leaves a sibling attempting to carry on a farm legacy through the financial and emotional stress of high debt levels complicated by ag’s low profit margins.
This dynamic is analogous to the appeal of NIL in sports. Just as a star quarterback is drawn by the fast cash, non-farm children see selling the land as a quick way to build wealth. Often, quick wealth builds egos, frequently resulting in financial and emotional losses over the longer term. An old saying holds that if someone inherits $100,000 or comes into sudden wealth, it will be gone within 17 months with nothing to show for it.
The combination of divorces and the new dynamics of nonfamily members is leading to rapid consolidation, particularly in the grain sector throughout the United States and Canada.
Disconnected economy
The disconnect is growing between Main Street and the powers that be in the C-Suite or on Wall Street. The stock market has been red-hot as a result of executives cutting middle management employees and eliminating entry level roles that once drew college and university graduates.
This in turn leads to stronger earnings and rising stock values, often bolstered by company buybacks. And the executives frequently receive substantial bonuses. Meanwhile, however, workers struggle with stagnant earnings and limited employment opportunities as AI invades a workplace focused on cost-cutting and efficiency.
When will this result in social disconnect, particularly among the younger generation?
Asleep at the switch
The United States in recent years has been asleep at the switch, while others around the globe have been forming alliances, establishing trade relationships and making long-term investments. A prime example is South America, where China's is reshaping the global order through the 12-year-old Belt and Road Initiative and strategic investments in farmland, infrastructure, and political and trade collaborations.
The world is acting strategically while the United States appears to operate like a reality game show where planning and partnerships are low priorities. It is only a matter of time before the outcomes become clear.
Looking ahead
These observations from my travels reveal a landscape in transition. While the challenges are real — from the evolution of agricultural lending to shifting land ownership patterns, from economic disconnection to geopolitical realignment — reasons for optimism remain.
- Next-generation agricultural lenders, though different from their predecessors, bring fresh perspectives and adaptability.
- Consolidation in agriculture, while painful for some, may create opportunities for others to build sustainable operations.
- Even the economic and geopolitical tensions we face today are forcing necessary conversations about priorities and partnerships.
“The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny” is a worthwhile read this fall and winter as you determine your place in our world of accelerated change.
Understanding these cycles of disruption and renewal can help provide context for the uncertainty we feel today and remind us that periods of chaos have historically given way to new eras of stability and growth. The key is to remain informed, adaptable and engaged as we navigate the backstretch of 2025 and prepare for what lies ahead.