Just one month ago, January 2026 soybean futures were trading near $10.20 with little hope of a potential rally. However, since then, word of cooperative U.S. and Chinese trade deals and strong domestic demand supported an astounding $1.50 price rally in soybean futures! Can the rally continue? Or will we see a price correction lower into Thanksgiving and month end?
What’s happened
The November 2025 WASDE report was released and brought an overall supportive tone to the soybean futures market.
WASDE lowered soybean yield to 53 bushels per acre, down one-half bushel per acre and mostly in line with pre-report expectations. The USDA acknowledged the slow export pace of soybeans, specifically to China, and also lowered demand for U.S. soybean exports for 2025-26 to 1.635 billion bushels. That is down nearly 13% from the previous year. Demand for the 2025-26 U.S. crush is unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels. The net result is U.S. 2025-26 ending stocks estimated at 290 million bushels, which is a drop of 10 million bushels and slightly below expectations.
On the global scene, USDA pegged Brazil’s 2024-25 production up 2.5 mmt to 171.5 mmt. With no changes on South American new crop production, the Brazil estimate stands at 175 mmt and Argentina is at 48.50 mmt. However, Argentine 2025-26 exports increased 2.25 mmt, bring it to 8.25 mmt. The net result: Global 2025-26 ending stocks came down 2 mmt to 122 mmt. This is still a near record large amount and suggests an ample and steady supply of soybeans that will be available to the world — barring any weather issues in South America in the coming months.
From a marketing perspective
Going forward, and imperative for future price direction, expect traders to have one eye on U.S. export demand and one eye on South America's crop-growing weather.
While the current administration has touted plans for China to purchase large quantities of U.S. soybeans, estimates so far show China has likely purchased approximately 2 mmt. This is a great start, but we need to see this pace continue daily to reach the 12 MMT we have been led to believe is coming, per trade talk context. The other risk is that while U.S. leaders tout this strong potential bean demand from China, nothing on this is in writing with the Chinese government.
The risk is that the euphoria of China buying beans may have led to an overzealous rally, which is now keeping the price of U.S. beans unattractive to future export sales. It is also said that the Brazilian basis weakened recently, making their soybeans more competitive in the export market.
Regarding weather in South America, January through February is a critical time for watching production impacts on the soybean crop in Brazil and Argentina. South America has the potential to produce a record soybean crop. However, any weather threat could put that notion in jeopardy.
Prepare yourself
A $1 rally in soybeans should not be ignored, and a potential price correction to the downside might occur should there be a lack of additional export demand news, especially from our No. 1 customer, China.
However, be mindful that continuing strength in export sales stay, or a significant weather event in South America in the coming months, could give the soybean market the ability to push higher.
Be ready for either scenario, and be mindful of your cash sale targets.
Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X: @naomiblohm, and at naomi@totalfarmmarketing.com.
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