While the December 2025 WASDE is not expected to bring much in the way of fresh fundamental news for U.S. corn production, outside market influences could lead to supportive corn prices into Christmas.
What’s happened
The lack of fresh fundamental news in the corn market has left corn futures trading in a monotone price pattern. A sideways price shuffle with about a 20-cent range is all the March 2026 corn futures contract has been able to muster since the government shutdown quieted news during October.
The November WASDE report quelled further news with modest adjustments in the supply and demand categories for U.S. corn. And so, with few new numbers to trade on, corn futures prices remain, well, stuck. Sure, traders have theorized about the potential for smaller U.S. corn yield and have been hypnotized by solid numbers for corn export and ethanol demand. Still, there has been little actual fundamental news to wake up the market.
From a marketing perspective
Looking ahead to the Dec. 9 USDA WASDE report, traders already suspect USDA will be slow to make any big adjustments to the corn supply and demand sheet, choosing instead to wait for the January 2026 WASDE before making their move. But might this instead be a time for outside market influences to be a factor for corn prices?
During the government shutdown, the Commitment of Traders Reports from the CFTC were not released. Now that the government is back open, those old reports are slowly rolling out. And while we do not have a firm grasp on where managed money traders are holding their cards in the corn market, the industry has been tinkering with the notion that managed money fund traders are likely short approximately 100,000 contracts of corn. This makes them vulnerable to short covering (buying back short positions) should friendly news make its way into the corn market.
Also interesting to watch are Chinese corn futures prices on the Dahlian exchange, which have trended higher in recent weeks. China is said to have grown a sufficient corn crop this year, although they struggled some at harvest. The USDA currently suggests that China’s corn production will be 295 MMT for the 2025-26 crop year, slightly higher than last year’s production number of 294.92 MMT. China uses all the corn they grow and still must rely on small amounts of imports. China’s current import needs for corn, according to the USDA will be 8 MMT. Might they purchase U.S. corn for some of that need? U.S. corn is still of low value and competitively priced from a global perspective.
And while past performance is not indicative of future results, something to be aware of is corn seasonals, which suggest a modest price rally could be ahead once the last trading day for the December contract is complete. The 5-, 15- and 30-year seasonal price patterns for March corn futures seem to agree with that notion.
Prepare yourself
Oh, and don’t forget this expression: “The bears get Thanksgiving and the bulls get Christmas.” I wrote about this topic last year at this time after a client brought the notion to my attention.
I was inspired to dig into the concept further. For the purpose of my simple research project, I looked over the past decade (11 years actually) for any type of rally for corn futures from Thanksgiving until the end of the year.
I used the March corn futures contract as the December corn futures contract would be tangled in the delivery period during this timeframe.
Also, since the date of Thanksgiving changes annually, I used November 20 as the annual start date.
Though there are no guarantees this will happen every year, the results were quite interesting. While each year over the past decade provided unique fundamental supply and demand perspectives, in each year over the past decade March corn futures saw some sort of rally between Nov. 20 and the end of the calendar year! Each year.
The average corn rally was 33 cents!
It is imperative to be aware that in some instances, the Thanksgiving to year-end rally lasted only days. Other times, it lasted for weeks. Be prepared for anything.
My resounding takeaway was that a farmer who pays attention to the markets during that time frame—rather than being lulled by holiday cheer—likely has an opportunity to take part in some sort of pricing rally opportunity between late November and the end of December.
Much of a potential rally depends on weather in South America, fund trader activity, export demand, an upcoming USDA report, and geopolitics.
A Christmas miracle? An early gift from Santa? If the rally should occur, consider using it to enhance your cash sales.
Reach Naomi Blohm at 800-334-9779, on X: @naomiblohm, and at naomi@totalfarmmarketing.com.
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