Grain farmers face a critical window to move old crop corn before harvest, even as global supply concerns build a potentially bullish case for early 2027.
Speaking on Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Senior Market Adviser Naomi Blohm says she sees opportunity for higher grain prices in Q1 2027 but suggests farmers clear the bins in preparation for the 2026 harvest. She notes that a two-billion-bushel carryout still needs to move before new crop arrives.
“The primary thing I'm hoping farmers do is continue to plug away with those old crop cash sales,” Blohm says. “You're going to see basis levels likely stay wider for old crop corn.”
Next week’s WASDE report takes center stage as analysts watch for potential adjustments across multiple categories. Blohm sees strong export demand as a positive. “There's one little glimmer of hope that for the old crop, our export sales truly have been still running ahead of projections,” Blohm says.
The European drought is emerging as a game changer for global markets. Reduced corn and wheat production in the European Union could tighten global carryouts significantly. “If we don't have this record crop here in the United States, it's going to be setting up the stage for a potentially very, very bullish 2027,” Blohm says.
This scenario would add significant demand to the market unless Brazil and Argentina deliver strong crops to fill the supply gap. China's continued soybean purchases add another bullish element, particularly as drier conditions emerge in parts of the country, potentially increasing that country’s demand for several grain crops as well as cotton.
From a marketing strategy standpoint, one path to comfortably making old crop sales to make way for new crop in on-farm bins is to consider reownership strategies. “Call option reownership on the corn market going out into March, would be anywhere between 10 and 30 cents,” Blohm estimates. With due consideration to each farmer’s budget and personal appetite for risk tolerance, she says, “I do feel like you would want to get well into March to capture all of our harvest.”
Adding upside opportunity into March also moves the market deep into the South American growing season and past the first two WASDE reports in 2027. Ultimately, she says, a March call, “just covers a lot of time that you can have some flexibility if that marketplace does continue to run higher.”
And that adds a level of comfort for those who must make pre-harvest sales to make room in the bins or accommodate cash flow needs. For the complete conversation, watch this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.