As the 2025 calendar year winds down and preliminary U.S. corn supply and demand projections for the 2026-27 crop year surface, we created a starting point for next year’s corn prospects. Here’s what Advance Trading sees: decreased planted acres but increased global supply.
Let’s break it down. The 2026-27 corn balance sheet below provides a starting point for looking at next year’s prospects, though much will likely change by the time that crop year ends on Aug. 31, 2027. The table also includes the USDA’s baseline projection for next year.
Focusing on supply, the Advance Trading 2026-27 projection pegs U.S. planted acreage at 94.5 million, which is a 4.3% decrease compared to 2024. Final acreage likely depends on price relationships with other crops and spring weather trends.
Utilizing a yield of 184 bpa results in forecasted production of 15.910 billion bushels. Factoring in the 2025-26 ending stocks estimate of 2.439 billion bushels and adding in a small level of imports, the total supply forecast is a record 18.374 bbu.
Exports are likely to be influenced by South American production prospects and world import needs.
- The safrinha corn crop in Brazil will be planted after soybean harvest is completed in early 2026. For now, the USDA is penciling in a 4% decrease in Brazil corn production for 2025-26.
- Output in Argentina is projected to rise by 6%.
- One wild card to watch is China, where import needs are declining from the record levels seen earlier this decade. For this example, ATI 2026-27 pegs ending stocks at 2.684 bbu, which is an additional 10% increase from 2025-26.
This exercise illustrates the potential for another significant increase in ending stocks for the 2026-27 crop year. Historically, an increase in stocks of this magnitude is associated with lower prices. As always, it is impossible to say what supply and demand factors eventually influence the market.
Export expectations increase
USDA’s latest Supply/Demand report, released last week, offered only one major change in the corn domestic balance sheet: an increase of 125 million bushels in the export forecast to a record 3.2 billion bushels.
A corresponding decrease in ending stocks reduced the 2025-26 U.S. corn carryout to 2.029 bbu. As recently as July, the export forecast was 2.675 bbu, implying an increase of 525 million bushels (almost 20%) since this summer. In raising its export forecast, USDA noted “export inspection data showed robust foreign demand during November and implies total shipments during the September-November quarter will likely exceed 800 million bushels, surpassing the prior high set during 2007.”
While the strong export program has been supportive to corn prices, it should be noted that the ending stocks estimate is still forecast to be nearly 33% higher than last year. Risk management strategies covering 2025 and projected 2026 production should be implemented accordingly.
