Lack of timely news kept grain markets stagnant during much of the fall, holding nearby corn and soybeans to narrow ranges: Corn moved barely more than a dime in December, and, though soybeans’ range was larger, the market avoided a major washout or break higher.
This relative tranquility could change in a hurry when USDA inundates traders with a slurry of key reports Jan. 12. The agency’s Annual Production totals and Dec. 1 Grain Stocks will be rolled into updated World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for the U.S. and other leading countries.
Even in normal times, price reactions from January reports can be extreme—and the 2026 edition takes place in an environment where data releases were anything but timely due to the month-long government shutdown. Still, odds over the past 40 years have a slightly bullish tint. Data show both crops posting a few more years higher compared to lower, at least as measured by the track record for Southern Iowa cash prices compiled by USDA. But neither crop’s advantage is big enough to be statistically significant, that is, the result of more than mere chance, making predictions all the more difficult.
So, what will the dice show?
Is 2025-2026 a “different” year?
In the day after January reports, corn ended lower 15 times, higher 24 times, and didn’t change once. The week after the reports closed the spread a little: cash corn was lower in 17 years, higher in 22 years and stayed the same once.
Soybean changes were less frequent. Average Southern Iowa cash prices were lower 18 times both a day after and a week after the reports printed. Soybeans were higher 22 times a day after and 21 times a week after. Soybeans were unchanged once a week after, with no changes a day after.
The years with bigger changes tended to be those around crops that differed dramatically from preceding ones—think 1988, 1996, 2007, 2009 and 2012.
Fed news grows stale
Of course, predicting what will move markets is almost as hard as knowing how wide moves could be. One advantage for the Jan. 12 USDA reports is the calendar. Worries about interest rates dominated the Wall Street discussion in December, but that debate ended last week. As expected, the Federal Reserve cut the target for its benchmark short-term Federal Funds rate by one-quarter of 1%, with the new range from 3.5% to 3.75%, the lowest reading in more than three years.
To be sure, the cost of money will continue to be a big story in 2026, but the latest news from the Fed should grow stale quickly. The central bank’s first policy meeting of the new year isn’t until Jan. 27-28 and won’t include many projections. Rates, growth, inflation and unemployment won’t be provided until the March 17-18 meeting.
That could allow traders to focus on USDA numbers—for better or worse.
In preparation, consider stress testing your farm’s financial considerations: How would your business contend with both the good and bad extremes from the past? Folks don’t run into trouble from average. Trouble comes when they’re unprepared for worst-case scenarios.
