Though overall market sentiment is that grain prices are below production costs, that may not be accurate post-harvest for some farmers, especially those who harvested higher yields.
“You might be able to make money off of prices lower than expected when you take a closer look at your break evens,” AgMarket.Net partner Tyler Schau says in this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.
To figure that out, Schau says: “Now’s a good time to sharpen your pencil.” This means digging into the numbers—analyzing how final yields impact production costs, recalculating input costs using as-managed numbers and zeroing in on what that crop costs to produce in 2025.
The idea is to use “dynamic break evens” through the marketing year to refine your selling strategy. This approach adjusts break evens by working final harvest numbers into the equation and factoring in profits from earlier sales. Those two variables applied across the operation reduce the cost of production for remaining bushels.
“We’ve worked with producers who smashed their APHs and found they could sell their crop at a fairly decent profit compared to what we anticipated,” Schau says.
For some, higher-than-expected yields created opportunities to sell at a profit, even with low cash prices, Schau says.
“The grain in the bin now has a lower breakeven,” Schau says, emphasizing that this allows producers to sell at lower prices while still covering costs. For those with soybeans or corn still in storage, this strategy could be a game-changer.
Looking ahead, Schau encourages farmers to plan their trades and set price targets. Whether through futures contracts, options, or local elevators, the goal is to capture opportunities during market rallies.
“Plan the trade, trade the plan,” Schau says, reminding listeners of an old marketing adage.
By taking these steps, farmers can protect equity, secure profits, and even start marketing next year’s crop.
Hear more from Schau on Ag Marketing IQ In Depth.