As 2025 comes to a close, the outlook for the new year remains challenging to say the least. In the latest episode of the Ag Policy Podcast, I sat down with Farm Futures Senior Commodity Markets Editor Bruce Blythe to discuss the ag economy, both in the U.S. and abroad.
Blythe noted that the U.S. row crop economy is struggling for the third consecutive year. Corn, soybean and wheat prices continue to be historically low. At the same time, prices for seed, fertilizers and other key inputs remain high.
“Row crop farmers are getting squeezed on both the cost and the crop revenue side,” Blythe said. “And 2026 does not look much better.”
Though USDA forecasts a decrease in crop receipts, Blythe also noted the agency expects an overall increase in farm income. However, a significant portion of that projected income will come from federal emergency aid.
Projections also anticipate heavy supplies, including another record U.S. corn crop. And Brazil is anticipating another record soybean crop, while global wheat production is expected to hit near record levels as well.
“Demand generally is good, but it’s not good enough,” Blythe said. “And that’s a problem because farmers aren’t getting the prices they need.”
Economic struggle not limited to the U.S.
Looking around the globe, Blythe noted that it’s a “pretty tough picture worldwide” with farmers struggling everywhere. Brazil’s ag economy is showing signs of financial strain. Farm bankruptcies tripled in recent years as Brazilian farmers deal with the same pressures as U.S. producers. In many ways, those struggles come down to simple supply and demand.
“When supplies keep growing and growing, and demand doesn’t keep pace, ultimately there has to be a correction,” Blythe said.