With geopolitical shifts reshaping the agricultural commodity landscape, Venezuela and China play pivotal roles. What does that mean for agricultural markets and farmers planning a path for a financially successful 2026?
Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX Group, Inc., talked on Ag Marketing IQ In Depth about what’s at stake in the markets and how U.S. agriculture can build economic resilience.
For context, Suderman points out that Venezuela, home to the world’s largest oil reserves, faces infrastructure challenges. Rebuilding could require $10 billion annually for a decade. In the meantime, the country’s rare earth minerals and soy oil imports are significant to U.S. agriculture.
“Venezuela’s rare earth resources could challenge China’s monopoly, impacting manufacturing and defense,” Suderman says. Meanwhile, China’s deep ties to Venezuela and its aggressive stance toward Taiwan raise concerns about trade disruptions. “If China moves on Taiwan, U.S. trade with China could face severe consequences,” he says. One consequence could be that China backs off from its commitment to buy U.S. soybeans.
This all comes at a time when U.S. agricultural is grappling with its reliance on China and intense global grain competition with South America. To reduce dependency on volatile global markets, U.S. agriculture can pivot toward innovation and value-added commodities.
“The harsh reality is that we are no longer the low-cost producer of bulk commodities in the world,” Suderman says. “We need to be focusing our research dollars on value added rather than trying to compete against some of these countries with bulk commodities. Let's add value to those commodities and compete that way using our technology advantage that we have here in the United States and have a product.”
Watch this week’s episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth to take a deeper dive into how the U.S. action against Venezuela and China’s potential move on Taiwan impacts domestic agricultural businesses and how the industry can navigate a more profitable path forward to support economic opportunities for family farms.