The year 2026 is special, as it marks the kickoff of the second quarter of the 21st century coming into full swing. The U.S. celebrates its 250th birthday, which is still quite youthful when benchmarked against other countries around the globe. What is on the radar screen for 2026 that could impact agricultural businesses, families and personal lives?
Watch the wildcards
Mother Nature can flip commodity prices in a New York minute. It appears that the production belts in the Global South are receiving adequate rainfall in a timely manner, thus providing the rest of the world with commodity options outside the U.S., Canada and other Western nations.
The U.S. Supreme Court holds an ace in the trade war. Its stance on tariffs imposed through executive orders under the emergency act could drastically alter prices received and the cost of imported inputs. Returning collected tariffs could become a nightmare if the tariffs are rescinded under a SCOTUS ruling.
Interest rates likely will be lowered on the short end of the curve, reducing the cost of operating capital as the newly appointed Federal Reserve leader and other appointees face pressure from the current administration to lower rates.
The farm bill and related policies are on pause in both chambers, the House and the Senate, where they are expected to linger pending the outcomes of the 2026 midterm elections.
The whim of export markets and the domestic economy will control the poultry, pork and dairy industries. On the other hand, the beef industry should remain strong due to older producers retiring and a preference among high-end consumers for protein over carbohydrates. However, a consumer scare such, such as New World screwworm or another black swan event could quickly change the profit dynamics.
Corporate expectations for AI are a wildcard in the general economy. Will they come to fruition? The unintended consequences of high energy requirements and supply-chain challenges for critical components may take some of the glow off the current infatuation with this segment of the economy.
Expect more white-collar layoffs across the general economy and continued resistance by large companies to hiring new college graduates as their access to money gets tighter. The Federal Reserve is becoming more accommodative as liquidity tightens due to uncontrolled government spending and budget excesses. This, in turn, could impact the long-term cost of money in the United States and abroad.
The housing market is declining, particularly in the southern and southwestern regions of the United States. Affordability challenges driven not by mortgage rates but by inflated insurance costs, real estate taxes, and other ownership expenses could put a damper on the U.S. economy.
Moving to the next gen in ag
Expect the transition in agriculture to accelerate in 2026. A key issue will be the ability of non-farm children to cash out or convert farm assets into alternative revenue streams such as energy, AI development and other emerging sectors. This dynamic will inevitably create some tension in the overall transition process.
On a positive note, approximately 21% of American farms and ranches have no next generation, which may provide opportunities for young and beginning farmers and ranchers to enter the industry.
Where to focus in 2026?
- Financial organization, along with a system to periodically monitor business and financial metrics, will be requirements, notoptions. A positive thing is that young and beginning farmers and ranchers are often already doing this and will benefit.
- Marketing and risk-management plans also are a requirement – not an option – and they must be executed and monitored. This will be a true difference maker.
- A comprehensive resource assessment must be conducted on your business. Shed unproductive assets, both capital and human, and determine your new “draft picks,” such as technology, innovation or talent that will place your business ahead in the game.
- Prioritize time to take care of yourself physically, mentally and spiritually. Find your North Star focus or guiding light and determine the core values and goals critical for success in reaching that North Star.
The second quarter of the 21st century will certainly be interesting and will present challenges, but it also will be loaded with opportunities.