The bulls ran with corn and soybean prices following the January 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. That may not be the case on Monday. Coming into Monday’s 2026 WASDE, traders see only one sure thing: anything goes.
“This is the big one — lots of surprises/twists and turns,” says Total Farm Marketing’s Naomi Blohm. “You cannot outguess this report.”
Emphasis on “not,” which is pretty strong language for a commodities broker.
That said, Jacob Burks, a partner at AgMarket.net, doesn’t foresee price opportunity after WASDE lands. Overall, he says, the trade expects ending stocks for soybeans to be at least 50 million bushels higher, and possibly as high as 80 million bushels higher. Corn yield likely will be lower, but likely not low enough to offset decreased demand.
The piles of corn in the Midwest will limit upside, Burks says. “But if they do dramatically change the yield, I still think the knee-jerk reaction will put us to a level that be higher than we expect.”
Which is why Blohm suggests farmers prepare for a move up or down, especially in corn. “Corn charts suggest a 40-cent price breakout is likely coming — higher or lower. Price direction depends on what USDA says on Monday,” Blohm says.
So, the question is how a farmer can prepare for what could be a harrowing ride as traders respond to the numbers in the report? Here are five things to consider.
1. Position for adverse price moves
For those with beans still in the bin. Burks says, “I would be buying a $10.60 call and selling an $11.20 call.” On Thursday that premium was around 15-16 cents.
2. Keep corn upside open
On corn, Burks also is looking at March but using a put. A put option at the money for $4.45 carried a single-digit premium on Thursday. His target prices would be $4.65 and $4.75.
“I would have it on every bushel,” Burks says. “I would keep it simple. I don’t think we have to be in an extremely aggressive position.”
If the estimates spur a rally, Burks suspects it will be lightning quick. Those positioned to act quickly will benefit. That said, he adds: “If something crazy happens, we want to be able to take advantage of it.”
3. Put your optimism in an order
“If you have old crop grain to sell, or new crop grain you want to price, place orders at price levels higher than today on the off chance that a bullish report creates a price spike,” says Ed Usset, grain marketing economist for the Center for Farm Financial Management at the University of Minnesota and author of Grain Marketing is Simple (*It’s just not easy).
4. Buy options
Austin Shenkel at Advance Trading points out that corn option volatility is historically low, running roughly 25% below the five-year average, which means option premiums are cheaper.
“For those holding unsold 2025 corn bushels and waiting for that post-harvest rally,” Shenkel says, “consider selling the cash grain—generate cash flow, remove downside risk—and re-owning with a call option strategy to maintain upside participation.”
Clemson University Farm Business Consultant Scott Mickey also leans toward buying calls. “Consider a call today, then get out of it post-report,” Mickey says. For that move, he says to look at March and May prices.
5. Take action
Above all, don’t stand still. A deer in the headlights stands a good chance of getting run over. “It’s easy to talk ourselves out of doing something,” Mickey says. “Not doing anything feels safe. We’ve got to get comfortable in these market plays. Not doing something is just bad.”
In the WASDE aftermath
Bruce Blythe, Farm Futures senior editor, suggests farmers also prepare for the aftermath of the WASDE. “The futures market rally this week suggests traders are anticipating another bullish January data-dump from USDA like we had last year,” Blythe says. “Given how the markets worked out last year, if you do get that bullish January, maybe take advantage by selling some old-crop or even pricing new-crop, because what you get in February might be the best you’ll get the rest of the year.”