“The most valuable commodity I know of is information. Wouldn’t you agree?” — Gordon Gekko in “Wall Street”
This fall brought an unhappy split between farmers and two things they both love and hate: China and USDA data.
China’s absence from the U.S. soybean market much of this year was well-documented, but fortunately, the trade agreement struck in late October brought the Chinese back into the fold.
As for USDA, the government shutdown that torpedoed key reports, including October Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand updates, kept grain markets fumbling around in data-less darkness much of the fall.
Both situations pose problems for farmers — not to mention ag journalists trying to accurately tell the stories of crops and markets.
China may be “back,” but critical USDA data remains AWOL. For this dispatch, let’s focus on bigger-picture takeaways from the USDA data blackout. Here’s two:
- finding reliable information
- living without things you thought would always be there
The big question: How do you put together a solid marketing plan — or even a strong article — without good, consistent and timely information?
The short answer from a journalist’s standpoint is: It’s not easy, but it’s not impossible. If there’s an upside to a forced “cold turkey” on USDA numbers, it’s that it reminded us all of the value of building a diverse network of sources and voices, avoiding over-reliance on one source, and digging deeper into a topic. (Do some ag writers lean too much on USDA figures and not enough on farmer input? Speaking only for myself, sometimes.)
The lack of fresh USDA data left grain markets and the people who write about them somewhat adrift. But one lesson was learning of other available sources to help us provide foundational information.
A similar tack could be applied to farmers’ marketing strategies for the coming year. Here are a few options for ag market information I’ve found to be good sources of data, research and market analysis (in addition, of course, to Farm Futures):
Ag schools and universities. Your state land-grant university has researchers and economists publishing regularly and at no charge to readers and subscribers. Two of my favorites: the University of Illinois’ Farmdoc Daily and Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
Industry consultants. Some bigger financial firms run their own in-house news operations, such as StoneX Market Intelligence, and publish market reports and analysis throughout the day. Many also compile their own production and yield estimates, or write regular commentary, which may require a paid subscription.
Two of note are Zaner Ag Hedge’s Karen Braun, a former ag reporter at Reuters, and AgResource’s Bill Tierney. Timely insights from the teams at AgMarket.Net and Commstock Investments, and Naomi Blohm at Total Farm Marketing are free on FarmFutures.com. Sign up for marketing newsletters and commentary that are published twice daily when the market is open.
Cash markets and basis. USDA published some data during the shutdown, including daily state-level cash and basis reports. While its weekly export sales reports weren’t available, visitors still got some sense of the market with daily numbers such as Louisiana and Texas export bids, which includes CIF (cost, insurance and freight) rates for corn and soybeans at or near the Gulf of Mexico.
The markets (and not just for grains). Shutdowns be damned, futures and options traders stuck to their knitting. Chart patterns, movement in futures spreads (i.e., “carry” in grain markets) and other indicators should be closely monitored, because they’re telling a story, and not just in grains. Keep an eye on crude oil, gold, the 10-year Treasury yield and other interest rates, all key cogs in the bigger global market machinery.
While fictional villain Gekko was talking about illegal insider trading, he had a point: Sound information — fact- and data-based — is everywhere, and those who make the effort to seek it out can gain an advantage.